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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

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The ECM ens. The 500mb anomaly has a swathe of warm air Greenland to northern Scandinavia with the trough south of this over the UK and a significant cool area eastern Europe.

 

Thus still cyclonic over the UK with quite cool air that includes n. Europe.

 

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The GEFS from the 0z had trended towards the ECM op and it comes as no surprise that the 06z represents that cluster. 

 

By T168: post-14819-0-07305400-1404471572_thumb.p

 

More runs needed but late next week and that weekend not looking so good now...

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The GEFS from the 0z had trended towards the ECM op and it comes as no surprise that the 06z represents that cluster. 

 

By T168: http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifgfs-0-168.png

 

More runs needed but late next week and that weekend not looking so good now...

Agree,been looking at these each day to see if there is any consistency...

 

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

 

and well tbh there has not been along with these which i think are the more preferred ?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

 

all i can see from the ens means is "slightly" better towards the south,this weather forecasting is not easy,got to say also the BBC's news 24's, 21.57 10 dayer takes some doing

enjoying your posts too very informative keep up the good work :good: 

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UKMO once again showing a slow rise in pressure next week

 

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Temperatures should be around average but in under any rain it would be cooler

 

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By t144 pressure begins to fall again from the north but it should be dry for most though the odd shower can't be ruled out

 

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PS Ignore the last part on my post from this morning for early next week those charts are from June 6th :oops: still awaiting the charts from t06 to t72 to re appear after 4 weeks and counting. Could a mod remove the charts for Monday and Tuesday next week which have the temps and rainfall?

Edited by Summer Sun

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The GEFS from the 0z had trended towards the ECM op and it comes as no surprise that the 06z represents that cluster. 

 

By T168: http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifgfs-0-168.png

 

More runs needed but late next week and that weekend not looking so good now...

Whilst the end game might be similar, the route taken by the GFS is completely different to the ECMs story of stalling low heights in the north sea which brings unsettled conditions all of next week.

Again no consistency from the models. GFS different again looks fine for most of the week before conditions become complex as the UK enters a col scenario. Warm humid and showery sums it up

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UKMO different from this morning and removes any infuence of low heights over Europe, meaning the UK is mostly dry from Tuesday onwards

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That next shallow low looks lie another troublemaker for the models. That does on the other hand have the chance to drop west of the UK and perhaps pull up a southerly flow.

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UKMO once again showing a slow rise in pressure next week

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Temperatures should be around average but in under any rain it would be cooler

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

By t144 pressure begins to fall again from the north but it should be dry for most though the odd shower can't be ruled out

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

PS Ignore the last part on my post from this morning for early next week those charts are from June 6th :oops: still awaiting the charts from t06 to t72 to re appear after 4 weeks and counting. Could a mod remove the charts for Monday and Tuesday next week which have the temps and rainfall?

 

Gavin, you can get the 06 to 72 hour UKMO runs here - the charts update later than we are used to on WZ and Meteociel.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_eur_00/PNM_panel.gif

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?lang=en&map=hnord&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=QQ500&hh=000

Edited by Gael_Force

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Whilst the end game might be similar, the route taken by the GFS is completely different to the ECMs story of stalling low heights in the north sea which brings unsettled conditions all of next week.

Again no consistency from the models. GFS different again looks fine for most of the week before conditions become complex as the UK enters a col scenario. Warm humid and showery sums it up

 

UKMO different from this morning and removes any infuence of low heights over Europe, meaning the UK is mostly dry from Tuesday onwards

 

That next shallow low looks lie another troublemaker for the models. That does on the other hand have the chance to drop west of the UK and perhaps pull up a southerly flow.

 

 

Yes at D6 I try to divide the GEFS into synoptic pattern(s), not too concerned how they get there in such a complex scenario. The GEFS are showing two main outcomes; tentative ridging from east and west settling down the UK  or the trough being sustained by energy from the Atlantic. How we get to either may not be resolved soon due to the added variability of the ex tropical storm heading towards Greenland.

 

I am thinking that the remnants of the ex-storm Arthur will only delay the next pressure rise. GEM had higher pressure edging in from T132 on this morning's run:

 

post-14819-0-79656400-1404494174_thumb.p  But it is now showing a continuation of the trough till T192: post-14819-0-49827700-1404494206_thumb.p

 

Differences in how the GEM and GFS handle the residue energy from Arthur as it interacts with the trough seems to effect the longevity of the latter and how active it is.

 

The 12z GEFS remain split between the two (and each cluster have subtle differences); the mean at T180: post-14819-0-37220200-1404494587_thumb.p

 

The op and control highlight the two clusters at T180: post-14819-0-27726400-1404495945_thumb.p  post-14819-0-52505200-1404495954_thumb.p

 

So yes inter and cross model lots of changes but the overall long wave pattern for next week looks like one of two possibilities. In the interim we have lower heights over the UK for at least 3-4 days. 

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ECM still refusing to bring anything overly settled next week with low pressure never far away

 

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Looks like a fairly unsettled spell is on the cards in the days ahead , and apart from a rather cool spell of weather during this weekend , warming up slightly next week, but with some showers at times, the models that's the gfs and ecm  show this trend right out to T+168 with Rain and Sun, good growing weather if you ask me. great for folks with allotments :good:

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Lat nights 500mb anomalies for next weekend are not in complete agreement apart from the fact that is a trough around the UK stretching from Greenland and warmer air the the N/NE and minimal influence from the Azores high. The 8-14 NOAA weakens the trough but no indication of any major change from the westerly Atlantic scenario. My reading of this could be incorrect of course.

 

As far as the ECM is concerned this boils down to a large cyclonic area eastern Atlantic with average temps over the UK with the warm air ridging over Scandinavia and the Azores high shunted SW and the jet supporting this scenario. Basically not much change.

 

 

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Well unusually for the ECM, it looks like it was over doing the cold pooling even in the reliable time frame. Now moving away from a more widespread unsettled spell.

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General consensus is that low pressure will be close enough to bring rain to the south east, though the rest of the UK looks like turning drier and increasingly warm from mid week.

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The question is will the low be that close to the UK on these days or will the models weaken it further and place it further away from the UK. The Atlantic continues to look weak.

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UKMO shows low pressure from Europe extending towards the SE for Thursday and Friday bringing with it a fair bit of cloud and an increasing risk of rain / showers

 

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850's rise by t144 for most areas after a fresher start than of late

 

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Edited by Summer Sun

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Indeed, we could quite easily see the opposite to the week just gone with the south east seeing the worst of the weather whilst the further north and west you go, the better conditions will be. 

ECM ens out and well...

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Going for a Euro/Scandi block into week 2 with conditions becoming very warm, a lot better than recent ensemble suites. Lets hope this starts to trend over the next few days. GFS not particularly interested at the moment.

Edited by Captain shortwave

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Yes the ECM ens has certainly eased off on the trough although not in line with NOAA and isn't pushing the Azores ridge with any great conviction but as has been suggested an ingress of the colder air from Europe. Given the changes between the last two runs no great confidence in this. The GFS has the transient ridge on Friday backtracking by Saturday

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Edited by knocker

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Gav, that ecm chart is shaded windspeed, not precip.

And knocks, whilst the surface temps on the continent are below average, they would still be decent from a nw european perspective. The air to our east looks warm but we run the risk of some sig precip with pressure never very high and an upper trough not far away.

Edited by bluearmy

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Gav, that ecm chart is shaded windspeed, not precip.And knocks, whilst the surface temps on the continent are below average, they would still be decent from a nw european perspective. The air to our east looks warm but we run the risk of some sig precip with pressure never very high and an upper trough not far away.

 

Yes I agree b. Didn't want to attempt detail at this stage but as you say there could be some significant rainfall depending on where the synoptics finally settle. Quite interesting. Intriguing 700mb pattern.

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Edited by knocker

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A bit of background noise at T144 on the GEFS but the consensus has shifted to what the GFS op has been signalling for many runs. The mean shows this:

 

post-14819-0-70544700-1404556047_thumb.p  

 

Finally the ECM op and mean has had an eureka moment and joined the concord: post-14819-0-97759500-1404556110_thumb.g

 

About 20% of the GEFS still have the trough more active at D6 (a la ECM yesterday) but I think the tide has turned.

 

This brief ridging next week does not look like it will be sustained and by D8 on the GEFS the trough is back in charge, mean: post-14819-0-11858200-1404556300_thumb.p

 

Lots of variety as to where the low sits, how shallow and active the trough, but nothing too bad as the uppers have by then recovered to above average as a whole, mean:

 

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GEM is also going with ridging on D6, but further north so the cut off upper low may give some rain for some (predominantly south) for about 36 hours before it sinks south. Too early to be concerned yet:

 

post-14819-0-77449600-1404556560_thumb.p  GEM goes on and re-establishes the weak trough: post-14819-0-23306500-1404556665_thumb.p

 

The GFS 06z op has the ridging from T90 to T156 so next Friday showing as another 25c day preceded by two dry average days. The trough is back till T216 before further ridging from the Azores. An east west split for FI with LP never far away to our east and the Azores trying to spread up from the SW. So still no sign of a UK high in situ, just a continuation of the cyclic summer we have had so far. So above average temps for most (CET for June was +1c) with rain mainly as showers with frontal rain relatively quiet. So far so good.

 

 

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Ensemble means at T192: ECM and GEM favour a Scandi ridge, GFS less so. 

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Avid model watchers would probably agree that ECM has to be favoured over GFS when it comes to modelling High Pressure over Scandinavia, so I think our weather for D8 onwards will be decided by whether there is a Scandi/Azores High link-up (potentially hot), and the depth of any troughing between the two highs (could be cool and rainy if centred over the UK). 

 

Tentative signs from ECM by D10 are that troughing will lessen and the two Highs may link:

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GEFS has pressure building in from the Atlantic by D10, though these seems a recurring theme from GFS recently, only for ridging to be toned down later:

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So all in all, no clear signs for settled or unsettled in the mid-term, though perhaps favouring settled conditions ever so slightly as we go into the following week.

Edited by rjbw

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 Re the 6-15 day period.Been out of it for the past few days although I have kept copies as per usual of the 3 major anomaly outputs. GFS has been missing several days with some data if not all so really it is how close are the NOAA 6-15 and ECMWF outputs. One can see how they compare in the two links below

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

The EC version is not too far from the 6-10 NOAA which does seem reasonably consistent in how it has changed over the past 3 days. One would expect the upper air pattern to change from what Extra shows on its 500mb chart below, to that suggested by the other two over the 6-10 days or so time scale? Well to ne it seems reasonable

 

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=gfs;sess=3e840f044b7f3ee23f5a57a32e56d2e0

Edited by johnholmes

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Still differences as early as t96 for the position of the high on Wednesdat

 

GFS has it a lot further east keeping it dry for all but north west Scotland and northern Ireland

 

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UKMO on the other hand has low pressure extending up from mainland Europe increasing the shower risk especially for the SE

 

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Beyond mid week low pressure is never far away though how much rain / showers would be around is another matter

 

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Edited by Summer Sun

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GFS the odd one out this evening with its midweek Azores ridge with the UK looking to be in the firing line  for troughing thanks to strong heights to SW and NE.

 

UKMO.. ECM..

 

GFS..

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ECM has a fairly messy outlook in the latter stages with winds tending to come from an easterly direction. Despite the chart at T+240 looking quite cool it still has 10c 850hpa temps spilling down out of Scandinavia. The possibility of rain coming from the east around midweek needs watching closely though.

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Ecm has no midweek ridge across the Uk , gfs  does. My favourite model is the Gfs, but Ecm has been the winner lately. Looks like a slow decline to unsettled conditions, from both models but Ecm  shows a huge low pressure system across the Uk in its later stages. Im still standing by my stance that there will be a fair amount of rain and equally a fair amount of dry sunny weather in the days ahead..... :good:  :good:  :good:

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Evening all :)

 

More interesting output this evening as always. Let's open with GEM:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014070512/gem-0-144.png?12

 

By this point, the attempt to ridge the Azores HP across the British Isles to link with heights to the NE has failed and the trough is gearing up. GEM doesn't end well for those wanting heat and settled weather.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014070512/gfs-0-144.png?12

 

GFS 12Z Operational at the same time offers a more settled picture especially in the south with some limited linkage of heights but that too soon collapses as LP takes over and only in the darkest recesses of FI is the Azores HP able to throw another ridge back across the British Isles.

 

ECM tonight:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014070512/ECM1-144.GIF?05-0

 

Hugely different from GFS at the same time with the trough already in control and the SE in particular looking unsettled. Interesting to note the 850s don't scream cool at all - in fact, it could be quite warm and humid at times.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014070512/J144-21.GIF?05-12

 

JMA 12Z - the trough pretty much has won this war and unsettled weather is at hand.

 

UKMO 12Z - fantastic for hot, settled weather - IF you are in central and northern Sweden and Finland where temperatures will be in the mid to high 20s by midweek.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014070512/UW144-21.GIF?05-19

 

For us, less settled.

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The GFS has been very consistent with it's modelling for next week. Azores high ridges in and sends low heights packing into central Europe with dry and increasingly warm weather developing until the weekend, when some sort of troughing comes in from the north west. Similar to this week in some ways. Is it consistently wrong though?

If that day 5 chart from the ECM verifies then we might as well close this thread as having multiple cut off lows and cold pools in the European locale alone would making getting even remotely close to the correct solution near enough impossible.

Will find out tomorrow where the models will go. I will admit that I did expect a backtrack from the GFS to an extent, but it hasn't budged at all.

Edited by Captain shortwave

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