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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

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Bar a weak ridge of high pressure next week ECM is looking pretty unsettled with rain or showers never far away, ECM ens will be interesting to see if the Op has any support

 

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UKMO shows very slow improvements towards the south west by mid week winds initially come in from the west before shifting round to the north west mid week. Rain or showers for just about all at times to start next week but its shown to become drier and possibly brighter in the SW by mid week with rain becoming restricted to the north

 

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Edited by Summer Sun

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It has to be said the ECM is far more bullish with the upper trough next week. NOAA certainly isn't against the idea but slips the trough further east allowing for more influence from the AZ high. Await the ECM ens as I wouldn't go along with the ops at this stage.

 

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^^^ Yes the ECM is building strong upper heights towards the pole from D8, so by D10 the op has ridges building towards the polar region and the main lower heights from the vortex is in a lobe that would promote a Scandi trough:

 

post-14819-0-05570200-1404374265_thumb.g Compared to GEM/GFSpost-14819-0-52986700-1404374305_thumb.p post-14819-0-37869000-1404374315_thumb.p

 

Bearing in mind the ECM bias then I am more inclined towards the GFS solution.

 

London GEFS indicate no sustained pressure rise in the SE locale: post-14819-0-61823700-1404374399_thumb.g

 

They suggest that the core of the Azores High doesn't displace:

 

D10 Mean post-14819-0-17466800-1404374615_thumb.p  D16 mean: post-14819-0-13311800-1404374635_thumb.p

 

This suggests we will have to rely on favourable ridging from that region and this by nature will only be transient. The GEFS try to retrogress the higher pressure to the east/NE but again it doesn't sustain on current output.

 

Still no consistency from the GEFS at D10 (by D7 also) for any strong conclusions to how the current pattern will develop though the op is in the main cluster. The Beijing recent update is more in line with the GFS op, that is the Scandi high retrogression towards the UK combined with the Azores ridge, so for 11th-20th July:

 

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This, like the GEFS is only transient and lower pressure returns for the last third of July:  post-14819-0-08380200-1404375489_thumb.g

 

Short term we have the trough incoming from late Friday for around 4 days, but after the cold front moves SE on Saturday the trough is rather shallow so temps in the South should recover quickly to around average. The low from  around Sunday to Monday hangs around in the NW, so cooler and wetter there mostly in that period.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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Very slow improvements from the south west next week though pressure next gets overly high it should begin to turn drier as the week progresses

 

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Rain totals to the 11th based on GFS

 

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Edited by Summer Sun

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The ECM ens isn't as bullish as the ops but still sticking to the trough scenario but with a tad more influence from the AZ high. The upper air pattern with a low over Iceland would seem to indicate a westerly flow with a familiar north/south split over the UK with nothing exceptional in the way of temps. There wouldn't at the moment be any sign of an established move to HP, more the opposite in fact with the jet staying fixed, albeit it's not that strong, in UK latitudes.

 

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GFS 06z isn't giving much rain next week for England

 

Totals to the 11th

 

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The reason for the lower totals is pressure is much higher than previous runs

 

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GFS6z shows an improving picture for Saturday with most of the rain fall over Friday night/ early Saturday morning.

 

The rest of next week looks like a repeat of this week.

 

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All in all, fairly standard British Summer weather.

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No consensus at day 8, probably due to the fact that the Euro still takes Author deeper to 968mb. UKMO sticking to its guns..

 

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Some quite contrary solutions at play on the nwp at the moment (perhaps to do with Arthur?). whilst many suites are keen to ridge the azores in next week, there also seems to be a retrogressive signal at play which would encourage some troughing in the mid atlantic. i would be very cautious about speculating what happens beyond day 6 until we see a general consensus on whether we are retrogressive or progressive. then we can muse on how stagnant or not things may be within that general pattern.

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Nice change from the UKMO at day 5

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Similar if not better than the GFS at that time

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Tentative signs of a link up between the Azores and Russian/Scandi highs

turning cooler in the north during the weekend but never falling lower than average in the south. Looks like temperatures will rise again by the middle of next week, back into the mid-twenties in places. If this evolution actually happens of course.

Edited by Captain shortwave

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A change from UKMO with high pressure on show now

 

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GFS for the same period

 

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I wonder if ECM will join these 2 now later on.......

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Yes so far it looks like modeling is squeezing the trough out by mid next week.

Looking increasingly likely that the unsettled period will not last too long and much of the country would return to pleasant warm and fine conditions.

Maybe the far north still affected by weather systems from the retreating trough well into next week.

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Typically ECM doesn't get the high over the UK like UKMO and GFS so the uncertainties continue

 

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UKMO at t120 and t144

 

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GFS

 

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Edited by Summer Sun

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Wow, you really can't trust the models at the moment, the ECM is completely different from this morning even at 5 days out. It wants to bring the high over Scandinavia into play as we enter week 2 with an easterly starting to set up.

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Confidence, nil.

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^^^ No surprise that the ECM is like it is as about 28% of GEFS are in a cluster close to the ECM 12z op and the GEFS mean hints at this:

 

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The GEFS members tie in with this morning and London shows a recovery in pressure taking 3-4 days: post-14819-0-52803100-1404412795_thumb.g

 

The main cluster, as was this morning, represent the OP run, with HP squeezing the UK trough from the NE and SW:

 

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Again like this morning the GFS op is not successful in putting HP in situ over the UK and the outcome is messy with HP and LP never being far away and a continuation of the changeable June like weather.

 

D10 GFSpost-14819-0-19889100-1404413050_thumb.p

 

GEM is similar but less progressive at lowering heights again around D10: post-14819-0-88940700-1404413129_thumb.p

 

The GFS op and GEM op look the favourite outcome from looking at the GEFS but no certainty yet.

 

JMA's update today follows the ECM route for the middle third of July: post-14819-0-51481200-1404413357_thumb.p

 

Week 3-4 anomaly from JMA again suggests no sign of a pending UK HP scenario: post-14819-0-94398300-1404413574_thumb.p

 

None of the models suggest anything too bad so more of the same probably.

 

JFF the latest CFS anomaly is a first, with LP anomaly over the UK for the next 8 months:

 

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Obviously wont happen but unusual to see, and that would be a colder end to the year; and would balance out the warmer first six months.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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All the hopecasting in the world does not help the fact on here that both gfs and ecm show at least some changeable/unsettled conditions  on offer for the Uk in the days ahead. The Azores high struggles to gain control with a fairly strong jet stream heading towards the Uk . I expect southern parts of the uk to get the least unsettled conditions, further on a continuation of much the same .....

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Sticking within the range of UKMO the ECM ensemble shows a gradual rise in pressure from the south west after an unsettled start but not to the extent of UKMO

 

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UKMO zoomed in at t144

 

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A case now of wait and see what the 00'zs bring in the morning

 

JMA also shows pressure rising during next week

 

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Quite an uncertain outlook, with the models toying around with various scenarios and little consensus for prospects as we move deeper into July. High pressure to the east, azores high wanting to ridge NE as well, but we have quite a strong jet to the NW and a troublesome trough which because of these two forces will do its best to anchor itself over us. It will all depend on the strength of the trough and jet, if these weaken then there is a strong chance the azores high will ridge sufficiently NE to squeeze out the trough - but this is a scenario we have yet to see this summer. Conversely yes, heights to the NE could build strongly westwards, but I foresee this as a less likely scenario.

 

Quite typical conditions for the foreseeable, no sign of a classic summer heatwave pattern, nor a wet washout, just very average for July which equals not too bad at all..

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Looking at the ECM ens and NOAA 500mb anomalies holds out little change in the near future. The former is a little more bullish with the trough so hold out little hope of an incursion of any permanence from the AZ high and the jet would supports this. Th NOAA would perhaps be not so adamant but even in the 8-14,  although there is a slight relaxing, hopes are not high for a major change, Heights remain strong to the NE so perhaps with this scenario this is the direction we should be looking.

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Edited by knocker

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ECM doesn't want to let go of this - when the op remains consistent, it's time to take note. Without any other op support, it's unlikely to be completely right so we can expect something between the ECM and Gfs solutions. That's a fairly big envelope!!

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Where's your money b? I'll await the ens but in the meantime a quick look at Arthur. The tidal surge the main worry here.

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Edited by knocker

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More of the same from the ECM ops. Upper low Iceland with trough over the UK and very warm air east of Scandinavia. Diminishing influence of Azores high. Very fragmented jet.

 

Surface analysis not good for the UK with cyclonic conditions and below average temps although not as cold as France.

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Edited by knocker

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Last night 28% of the GEFS supported the ECM op. This morning at T168 its a 50:50 split either going the ECM or GFS op direction.

 

Models now agreeing on the handling of the Ex tropical storm, that it flattens any Atlantic ridge. Now its getting agreement on how much energy slides into the trough. GFS sends the energy NE, cutting the feed to the trough by D6 and it becomes a cut off feature allowing ridging from the Azores and Scandi:

 

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Where as at the same time ECM maintains some flow: post-14819-0-86206800-1404460332_thumb.g

 

GEM and UKMO closer to GFS but they are variations on this theme:

 

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However Navgem supports the ECM evolution: post-14819-0-37396700-1404460605_thumb.p

 

So subtle flow variations may mean a warm next week or an average one. Bearing in mind the GEFS are also split this is to be resolved.

 

 

 

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Worth keeping an eye on the low over Germany next week it could increase the risk of rain or showers over Eastern England later next week

 

Tuesday looks like a day of sunshine and showers with pressure very slowly rising from the west

 

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By midweek pressure rises for most but we are in a northerly flow so I would feel fresher than of late

 

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By Thursday that low over Germany needs watching the risk of showers or rain developing in parts of the east would increase

 

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Next week starts on a wet note for most with temperatures struggling to make it into the teens for some parts

 

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Tuesday also sees showers or longer spells of rain though temperatures do recover for most though under any rain I doubt it will feel overly warm

 

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Edited by Summer Sun

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Looking at the 00z runs there does seem to be a trend for a steady eroding of the trough from the UK next week.

The GFS spaghetti plots at T72 and then atT120hrs

 

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just illustrates the movement east of the upper trough from the UK.

 

The ECM means at T72 and T168hrs go with this too.

 

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Certainly no heatwave to come but perhaps later next week a return to the more typical north/south split we have been seeing recently.

The Azores high never quite close enough for widespread fine conditions by the looks of it with low pressure to our north west bringing trailing fronts around the top of the high at times.

 

 

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