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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

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Models trending very warm into wek 2, thouh as of yet no definite direction. The GFS and GEM want to try and link the Azores and Russian ridges which the ECM is more progressive in the Atlantic jet and we simply end up with another ridge from the Azores whilst the ridge to the east flattens.

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2 runs in a row the ECM has done this so maybe this is potentially the way forward.

UKMO looks the odd one out with the looping ridge over to Greenland suggesting a UK trough.

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Big difference between itself and the ECM at this timeframe.

 

Meaning that the GEM has dropped the horror show it was showing just yesterday and Monday, suggesting that it's output is (and was) somewhat suspect, do you think?

 

Happy medium of a number of these runs is normal pleasant summer weather - better as is often the case in the south for next week.

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Tend to agree with CS's assessment. This mornings ECM  upper anomaly has the trough to the NE more influential pushing the warmer air further east thus ruling out any linkage. It does allow ridging from the SW as mentioned but I have a feeling in my water that this is but a transient feature. Not unpleasant though.

 

post-12275-0-82545200-1404285283_thumb.p

post-12275-0-24413100-1404285292_thumb.p

post-12275-0-21456800-1404285300_thumb.p

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Looking better now from ECM the first couple of days next week could be iffy for some but from mid week the high really starts to build becoming increasingly warmer in the south with it rain becoming restricted to the far north. The biggest issue next week once the high builds is how much cloud it would bring just need the high to shift a bit further north really

 

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Edited by Summer Sun

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The ECM ens has doffed the rose tinted spectacles to a certain extent.

 

post-12275-0-01310700-1404294103_thumb.p

post-12275-0-28249700-1404294111_thumb.p

post-12275-0-14286500-1404294121_thumb.p

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Safe to say that CPC NOAA 8-14 day output isn't as good as it was last night and agreeing with ECM on the ECM/GFS mean this morning:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

true... but lets see what they show overnight when theyll be updated.will they aree with these charts that are now giving hope of something summery (usual caveat applies)

 

post-2797-0-97279300-1404304872_thumb.gia step in the righ direction (for those wanting sun/heat) and at last gives support to those op runs showing high pressure domination (in fi).

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And back to Model Output discussion please.

 

Many Thanks.

 

PM.

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UKMO is a little worrying still for next week, it still wants to handle this weekends low differently to the other models. All the others despite their differing week 2 forecasts want to pull the low away towards Iceland and allow heights to rise near the UK.

GFS

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GEM

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UKMO

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Unless any other models wants to stall that low then the UKMO is going to continue to be an outlier solution for next week.

 

Otherwise the next question will be how much of the remaining cold pooling will get cut off over Europe and hence how strongly can heights affect the UK during the middle and latter part of next week.

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A big change on the 12z GFS for the SE next Wednesday its gone from wet and temps struggling to get above 13c to dry and temps in the low to mid 20's

 

Side by side comparison of the 12z and 06z

 

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Overall next week looks like staying warm for most with very little rain after Tuesday

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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^^^ Yes UKMO handles the Tropical Storm Arthur differently than other models. GEM and GFS ops drive it towards Iceland and hence the slight change in early week 2. A chance for the Azores to ridge towards the UK.

 

UKMO sends the ex-Storm into an Atlantic short wave trough and the associated ridge drives the Azores ridging N rather than East:

 

post-14819-0-78984700-1404320048_thumb.g  post-14819-0-06929000-1404320058_thumb.g

 

GFS sends the storm east so the Azores ridges towards the UK stopping the Atlantic ridge: post-14819-0-69325400-1404320202_thumb.p

 

Before the storm arrives we can see the likely pattern that may have happened and was being charted recently: post-14819-0-25172100-1404320586_thumb.p

 

This delays the return of lower heights to the UK. Though in FI the pressure does fall again in our locale. GEM is similar, a temporary ridge followed by a mix of higher and lower pressure close to the UK:

 

post-14819-0-55900200-1404320386_thumb.p

 

About 15% of the GEFS support the UKMO synoptic so unlikely I would have thought.

 

So no heat wave/UK HP dominant setup, instead a continuation of the changeable cyclic June, ridge followed by trough. Probably temps should be OK and warm in the favoured areas with rainfall around the average for most up to mid July.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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...ECM at T120 looks like it will trend towards UKMO, with a weak Atlantic ridge: post-14819-0-04500200-1404326205_thumb.g

 

So the low is stalled but by T144 it breaks through and heads east at a lower latitude than GFS/GEM: post-14819-0-79775800-1404326302_thumb.g

 

So by D7 it's a N/S split: post-14819-0-33067900-1404326347_thumb.g

 

Take your pick. I have no idea as the GEFS are also showing various outcomes. Uncertainty remains and it is no surprise the verification stats are poor for all models after D7.

 

eg. D10: post-14819-0-78422500-1404326632_thumb.p  During the Winter/Spring ECM was averaging around 0.45. 

 

ECM height bias continues: post-14819-0-26911300-1404326920_thumb.p

 

So last night's 12z UK heights now looking different. Yesterday: post-14819-0-34640000-1404326964_thumb.g Today: post-14819-0-50882300-1404326978_thumb.g

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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ECM backing away from a more settled outlook next week again with low pressure still close enough to influence our weather mid week sees a weak ridge building but its soon shifted south

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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It looking like turning warmer though from mid week

 

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Evening all :)

 

Mixed bag of evening output to be honest. After what looks like an unsettled and wet weekend for many, next week remains unclear. GFS 12Z Operational promises some better weather courtesy of a ridging Azores HP:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014070212/gfs-0-168.png?12

 

This time next week and note the deep Saharan LP helping to prop up the heights to the north and extending the ridge over southern Britain.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014070212/ECM1-168.GIF?02-0

 

A ridge clinging on by its fingertips on the ECM 12Z output - the Saharan LP is much weaker and flabbier and the Azores HP is already in full retreat to the SW and the evolution of the rest of the ECM is fairly predictable.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014070212/gem-0-168.png?12

 

GEM doesn't have the ridge or the same orientation even though the HP is being supported by the Saharan LP.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014070212/J168-21.GIF?02-12

 

JMA offers a different evolution with a col thanks to much lower pressure in the eastern North Sea. I do think a clue lies far to the south over North Africa and the strength of the LP>

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Looks like transient ridges of HP is all we can hope for at the moment. Whilst im not saying this is like summer 2007-12 so far as its no where near but why does the Azores HP seem to have so much difficulty getting east of the UK again, like in those years? It is meaning a lot of cloud being bought in at times. ECM 12z tonight looking OK until late on but a big fat round high in the Atlantic is never a good sign and just allows LP to slip SE and resultant cold pools to sit over the UK like this weekend. GFS shows later on with the heat just to our east whilst the coolest uppers at our latitude just make a beeline for the UK - how typical eh? A little concerning that 26c/27c is all we can seem to push at the moment and the most we can push for for now as begin to head into the heart of summer soon. Still lots of time of course but some signs mid July wont deliver anything noteworthy either with more trough than HP. Cant help but feel we have been very lucky with present blocking elsewhere but it just feels that luck is running out.

Edited by Costa Del Fal

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Just seen that starting tonight BBC news 24 is to broadcast a 10 day forecast every day just before 10pm! Brave or mad move by the Metoffice / BBC?!

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Just seen that starting tonight BBC news 24 is to broadcast a 10 day forecast every day just before 10pm! Brave or mad move by the Metoffice / BBC?!

 

That sounds awesome. Very brave and I'm sure there will be much excitement in winter if a cold spell was possibly on the way.

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Looks like transient ridges of HP is all we can hope for at the moment. Whilst im not saying this is like summer 2007-12 so far as its no where near but why does the Azores HP seem to have so much difficulty getting east of the UK again, like in those years? It is meaning a lot of cloud being bought in at times. ECM 12z tonight looking OK until late on but a big fat round high in the Atlantic is never a good sign and just allows LP to slip SE and resultant cold pools to sit over the UK like this weekend. GFS shows later on with the heat just to our east whilst the coolest uppers at our latitude just make a beeline for the UK - how typical eh? A little concerning that 26c/27c is all we can seem to push at the moment and the most we can push for for now as begin to head into the heart of summer soon. Still lots of time of course but some signs mid July wont deliver anything noteworthy either with more trough than HP. Cant help but feel we have been very lucky with present blocking elsewhere but it just feels that luck is running out.

Reliable signs, those? Surely not, that far into FI. Given how much positioning and detail has altered over recent runs concerning how much (or not) HP might influence the UK only over the few days following only this coming weekend, I think it would take a lot of (over)confidence to predict anything that far away, at  least for now.

 

ETA : The bravery of the Met Office and BBC with this new 10 day forecast idea has been mentioned above, and that's only 10 days .... 

Edited by William of Walworth
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Reliable signs, those? Surely not, that far into FI. Given how much positioning and detail has altered over recent runs concerning how much (or not) HP might influence the UK only over the few days following only this coming weekend, I think it would take a lot of (over)confidence to predict anything that far away, at  least for now.

 

ETA : The bravery of the Met Office and BBC with this new 10 day forecast idea has been mentioned above, and that's only 10 days .... 

Obviously not but it certainly cant be said there are strong signals for a heatwave and a Euro high? Even Louise Lear has just added to my thoughts on the 1st BBC 10 day forecast somewhat really with that high stuck in the Atlantic. Might stay mild most of the time but nothing great.

Edited by Costa Del Fal

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That sounds awesome. Very brave and I'm sure there will be much excitement in winter if a cold spell was possibly on the way.

To me it just looks like the bbc are simply bringing to the people who follow the Weather on TV and not the internet what we already have for us weather fanatics ,on with the modells and after early next week it could go many ways ,we have some action down across north africa and some energy eventually off the east coast of America ,but certainly not a bad summer so far ,cheers gang .

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Let's keep on topic everyone.

Remember this thread is for your views on the models not the BBC weather team.

Further discussions on the new  BBC 10 day forecasts mentioned above can always be started in a new thread.

 

A reminder too that we do have the ongoing Met office threads for comments regarding their forecasts into the longer term.

 

Thanks all. :)

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Seen comments on here today about it continuing "changeable"; someone mentioning summers 07-12.

Hmm......been ok down here so far. 60% of June rainfall average; temps above average; decent amounts of sunshine. Not that many rainy periods over days and days.

All in all, ok so far for a British summer

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Just seen that starting tonight BBC news 24 is to broadcast a 10 day forecast every day just before 10pm! Brave or mad move by the Metoffice / BBC?!

Brave id say,also confusing i note on the bbc website they do the further ahead boxes at the top maybe thats where the idea came from,just watched the 10 dayer on news 24 and tbh seems the total opposite to what the bbc site says for my neck of the welly chasing hills .......not that it takes much to confuse a Tottenham fan :crazy:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

 

getting a bit better John H?

Edited by DTHFCJ
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Well the ECM kind of backed away for its recent trend to some degree, the run brings back that east to west ridging across the pole again which makes low pressure more stubborn to clear properly from the UK. There is no real trend though perhaps the poor solution from the UKMO has a little more footing.

Still anything can happen and tropical storm Arthur is not help things as it's track and intensity will directly affect things here in the UK.

Still I think we will see another decent ridge which will bring some more pleasant and warm weather for a time. Whilst not as good the ECM does bring some very warm weather to the south in week 2 with 850s reaching 12C, which in any long sunny spells could see temperatures into the low 80s. The mean 850s from the ECM and GFS do show a warm up from the middle of next week.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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No suprise that Authors track is causing disagreement, Euro drops it to 966mb.

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That w Russian ridge is fast becoming an east Scandi one. That implies gradual retrogression which, with the Azores ridge attempting to get in, is likely to force the nw euro upper trough to become cut off - an option pointed out a few days ago. Likely to be a bit messy for us but overall fairly typical for summer.

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That ridge out east still looks like it could affect us sometime in the near future, though we need assistance from the Azores high for that to happen. The GFS and GEM still hinting at this. UKMO still looks like extending any unsettled spell into next week, though it does look like improving from the south west as time goes on. It's handling of Arthur looks very different to the rest though with the low tracking probably towards the Iberia region within the Azores ridge as opposed to exiting into the Atlantic jet like the others.

Posted Image

The ECM mid-range I find hard to believe to be honest. It's trying to develop a Scandi trough from a rather robust Russian/Scandi high situation, you would think other solutions would be more likely than that to be honest and again could be bias at work here.

Edited by Captain shortwave

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