Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

[chapmanslade]

Looking at the GEFS ens mean anomaly no question where the warm air is.

Care is needed with these charts - they are variance from normal so although Spain shows a negative anomaly it doesn't mean it will be cold, just less hot than normal, and seeing how it is pretty hot in Spain in July that is still hot.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the 12z GFS the heat will peak on Thursday

 

The heat builds in on Wednesday

 

 

Thursday looks like it will be the peak for the heat

 

 

By Friday the heat is not as widespread

 

 

Saturday sees temperatures in the high teens for the west mid 20's in the east

 

 

Sunday again sees temperatures in the high teens to low 20's with some heavy rain in places

 

 

Monday again has temperatures in the high teens to low 20's maybe 25c for one or two spots

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The GEM is the run to beat this afternoon, hottest for longest.

Friday and Saturday would potentially be hot with temperatures possibly hitting the low 30s. The Atlantic struggles to get in with conditions still very warm even by Sunday.

 

Also it has ditched its recent mid range output 

So next week would be pretty decent with warm/very warm and dry conditions for the south, with cooler and more mixed conditions in the north.

Edited July 14, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

well these anomaly charts are moving in the right direction for heat, ok, the gfs is probably too progressive, and the ecm is closer to the noaa output, but in all it isnt a bad picture.

[MKN]

As said above gfs 12z is a bit of backwards step if your looking for heat. For friday, gfs was predicting temps in the region similar to Thursdays values 2/3 runs back now its going for 3/4c lower in most places. Still only one run and as ever liable to change. Thursday is still the day to book off work if you can.

[Captain Shortwave]

As said above gfs 12z is a bit of backwards step if your looking for heat. For friday, gfs was predicting temps in the region similar to Thursdays values 2/3 runs back now its going for 3/4c lower in most places. Still only one run and as ever liable to change. Thursday is still the day to book off work if you can.

One thing I will say is the GFS is definitely the odd one out tonight, the UKMO/GEM and ECM all keep some very warm air (16C 850s) over parts of the UK through Friday and into Saturday. 

 

If we get any long sunny periods then 30C should be easily obtainable in central/southern England on either of these days as well as Thursday,

At day 6 (Sunday) and the Atlantic has already failed to break through, no surprise to see the Azores/Scandi link up at day 7.

Edited July 14, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[shaky]

Ecm once again extremely consistent with the plume!!in fact it looks like things have backed west a little bit compared to the morning run!!this is one heck of a plume though. ......

[Milhouse]

And not only that, the ECM brings back the very warm temperatures for the following week after a very brief unsettled couple of days. Probably the best ECM from start to finish since last July.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

And not only that, the ECM brings back the very warm temperatures for the following week after a very brief unsettled couple of days. Probably the best ECM from start to finish since last July.

 

 

 

Yep a superb ECM tonight some hot weather from Thursday depending on where you are

 

 

+10 850's never far away after the weekend with more heat building next week

 

Edited July 14, 2014 by Summer Sun

[mushymanrob]

funny thing is, the 12z ecm thats just come out is closer to the gfs anomaly chart i posted earlier and the gfs 12z is closer to the ecm anomaly chart i posted earlier.

im looking towards the overnight noaa anomaly charts for an indication as to which solution is closest.

i guess in reality the gfs 12z is underplaying hight evolution whilst the ecm 12z is overplaying it.

[Milhouse]

GEM has upper temperatures of 20c scraping the east coast on Saturday.

 

[Frosty.]

Fantastic Ecm 12z op run tonight for heat seekers, these charts are the best so far this summer and it's already been a good summer  with plenty of warmth, sunshine and thundery rain. Later this week. spanish plume conditions are set to push northwards across the uk with temperatures widely 25 celsius plus, and even hotter by friday and into the weekend with 30 celsius plus as + 15 T850 hPa is drawn up across most of the uk, at least across the south and east. So..becoming hot and increasingly humid with lots more sunshine but with an increasing risk of thundery showers breaking out before more general thundery rain with potent thunderstorms spread up from france, according to this run it remains very warm or hot and pressure rises again beyond the thundery spell later this week.. Enjoy it guys.. this summer looks like getting better and better.

[Cloud 10]

Quite a change on the 120 hrs gfs 18z tonight compared to a couple of days ago!

 

tonight..  2 days ago..

[Gael_Force]

Looking at the GEFS ens mean anomaly no question where the warm air is.

 

The CFS based models are often dismissed when posted in here - in this situation, they got the T2 anomaly pattern spot on at months ahead.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2_fcst_history/201402/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

[knocker]

Looking at the ECM ens I'm not quite sure what everyone is getting hysterical about. It seems to me like a couple of very warm days then back to the lowish 20s thank goodness.

 

[Man With Beard]

One thing I will say is the GFS is definitely the odd one out tonight, the UKMO/GEM and ECM all keep some very warm air (16C 850s) over parts of the UK through Friday and into Saturday. 

 

If we get any long sunny periods then 30C should be easily obtainable in central/southern England on either of these days as well as Thursday,

At day 6 (Sunday) and the Atlantic has already failed to break through, no surprise to see the Azores/Scandi link up at day 7.

One of my golden rules is - if UKMO and ECM agree at T96 or T120, believe it. Both get close to 18C 850s on Friday. It will be about timing - if the unstable air doesn't reach the SE by early afternoon, 90F will be exceeded - otherwise, mid 80s will be the top.

Very interested in that hot air heading for Shetland by Saturday - what’s their record temperature?

Maybe low 20s next week away from the SE, but if ecm verifies I would expect London to reach 80F most days next week.

[shaky]

Quite a change on the 120 hrs gfs 18z tonight compared to a couple of days ago!

 

tonight..gfs-0-120.png  2 days ago..gfs-2014071218-0-168.png

that is a huge change!!guess the plumes gona last longer and be more stubborn than first thought!!

[Man With Beard]

One thing I will say is the GFS is definitely the odd one out tonight, the UKMO/GEM and ECM all keep some very warm air (16C 850s) over parts of the UK through Friday and into Saturday. 

 

If we get any long sunny periods then 30C should be easily obtainable in central/southern England on either of these days as well as Thursday,

At day 6 (Sunday) and the Atlantic has already failed to break through, no surprise to see the Azores/Scandi link up at day 7.

One of my golden rules is - if UKMO and ECM agree at T96 or T120, believe it. Both get close to 18C 850s on Friday. It will be about timing - if the unstable air doesn't reach the SE by early afternoon, 90F will be exceeded - otherwise, mid 80s will be the top.

Very interested in that hot air heading for Shetland by Saturday - what’s their record temperature?

Maybe low 20s next week away from the SE, but if ecm verifies I would expect London to reach 80F most days next week.

[Captain Shortwave]

The pub run now brings the +16C isotherm into the UK so all models agree on this. (GFS for the record has a high of 28C for Friday and Saturday now).

 

Looking at the ECM ens I'm not quite sure what everyone is getting hysterical about. It seems to me like a couple of very warm days then back to the lowish 20s thank goodness.

 

Still very solid for the time of year (around +8C for most of the UK). That would bring warm or very warm conditions, fair to say a well above average CET would be well and truly galloping towards the finish line. I must admit though with low pressure stalling west of the UK and still having heights over most of Europe, then another plume event is not out of the question. 

Edited July 14, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[shaky]

Gfs now agrees with the ecm and has backed the plume further west on the 18z!!Saturday is looking very warm now again!!

[knocker]

The pub run now brings the +16C isotherm into the UK so all models agree on this. (GFS for the record has a high of 28C for Friday and Saturday now).

 

 

Still very solid for the time of year (around +8C for most of the UK). That would bring warm or very warm conditions, fair to say a well above average CET would be well and truly galloping towards the finish line. I must admit though with low pressure stalling west of the UK and still having heights over most of Europe, then another plume event is not out of the question. 

 

Might be  CS but not in the near future according to the ECM but then it's a fair way off.

Edited July 14, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

To move on. The 500mb anomalies from last night are all moving in the same direction with the ECM and NOAA being the closest. The ridge lying east of the UK into Scandinavia and a trough dipping into mid Atlantic from Greenland.

 

IMO this will give us a not unfamiliar surface analysis of weak low pressure to the west and over the UK perhaps interspersed by influence from the high to the E/NE. Whether this leads to southerly advection of warm air is a possibility not to be ruled out but too far into the future to call at the moment.

 

Looking at the NOAA 8-14 it appears to be much the same except there is a weakening of the pattern.

Edited July 15, 2014 by Polar Maritime
Edited due to deletion of above post.

[SteveB]

Good morning,

 

Well the GFS is showing a classic British Summer - two hot days then a breakdown situation towards the end of the week.

 

The heat has gone after Saturday, replaced with a continuation of showers & temps in the high teens/low twenties through next week.

 

No doubt this will change again before then, so I wouldn't read to much into it.

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Steve, I'm sure we will see a many more swings yet in the Models re-detail for the coming weekend.

 

The GFS continues to show more unsettled/cooler weather of the Atlantic from around the 25th this morning.

 

 

Edited July 15, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

Well we get a thundery low eventually on the ECM

 

But no breakdown as the low slips into Europe and high pressure builds back in

The ECM still has the +16C isotherm clinging onto the East even by Monday.

 

The ECM evolution is backed up by the UKMO

 

ECM for week 2 is very warm/hot and sunny with a light easterly wind. Whilst the 850s mix out a little (10-12C), week would still see the potential for 30C to be reach on any day to be honest. So the ECM and UKMO look good for a prolonged spell of above average temperatures, the GFS looks more mixed but has been poor at even the earlier time frames during the development of this spell. The GEM gets cloe to the Euros but then pulls a retrogression evolution which snatches defeat from the jaws of victory, or the other way around if your desire is not of the hot variety.

Edited July 15, 2014 by Captain shortwave