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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

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UKMO looks very warm possibly becoming hot by Wednesday / Thursday which in turn could set of some thunderstorms on Thursday

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun

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indeed milhouse, the downgrade has begun! by monday the hot spell wont exist... just like all the other hot spells the models predicted in fi this season.

It's one run, strangely the Metoffice have been quite confident in conditions warming up next week. So I will take the run as a rogue one for now until it is repeated or other models back it. Edited by Captain shortwave
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If anything the downgrades have gone the other way this summer- unsettled weather has tended to be pushed back to the point that it doesn't actually happen in the end. It's one run and the GFS has been more keen than the other models to make the heat miss us.

i take your point, maybe this is a summer so far without extremes of heat or wet. its frustrating though several potential heatwaves/hot spells have vanished before coming into reality, im not celebrating anything until it happens.

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If anything the downgrades have gone the other way this summer- unsettled weather has tended to be pushed back to the point that it doesn't actually happen in the end. It's one run and the GFS has been more keen than the other models to make the heat miss us.

Very true, Scorch...Very similar to last summer's non-existent breakdowns?

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Can we please keep on topic , there is other threads to talk about the Summer so far...... :good:

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Looking at the 850s the UKMO has the 12c isotherm glancing the south coast:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014071112/UW144-7.GIF?11-18

 

GEM is more convincing for fans of heat:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014071112/gem-1-144.png?12

 

Then we have GFS which has already caused some angst and anguish:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014071112/gfs-1-144.png?12

 

NAVGEM also has the core of heat keeping well to the south:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014071112/navgem-1-144.png?11-18

 

All eyes now on ECM....

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If anything the downgrades have gone the other way this summer- unsettled weather has tended to be pushed back to the point that it doesn't actually happen in the end. It's one run and the GFS has been more keen than the other models to make the heat miss us.

Quite, the much vaunted horror low pressure scenarios have by and large not materialised this Summer.

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ECM also pushing the transient ridge through quicker than this morning:

 

D5: post-14819-0-78768000-1405103802_thumb.g  D6: post-14819-0-62503900-1405103823_thumb.g

 

And by D7: post-14819-0-21022100-1405103852_thumb.g

 

We lose the extensive 12c+ uppers but still a few warm days but more SE/S centric and maybe not as hot as recent  runs:

 

post-14819-0-30025400-1405103984_thumb.g  post-14819-0-34861700-1405103993_thumb.g

 

Stormier than the GFS as well.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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ECM nice and amplified tonight. Hot in the south from Wednesday with this spreading northwards through the later part of the week. On the phone so apologies for the lack of charts.

Edit - I can post :)

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Heat holding in the east at day 8 and the Atlantic is struggling to break through the solid wall to our east.

Breakdown gets in at day 9

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Will the low push back the ridge or will the ridge hold out, actually will the ridge exist (if the GFS has any say). If the ridge does verify then I would favour the ridge, the final week of July last year is a nice case study of Atlantic troughing taking a literal age to break through.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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ECM nice and amplified tonight. Hot in the south from Wednesday with this spreading northwards through the later part of the week. On the phone so apologies for the lack of charts.

totally agree with you mate!!plume still well and truly there on the ecm and looks like a 3 to 4 day affair!!pretty impressive if you ask me!!
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JMA the best Model for a longer warm/hot period:

 

T96:  post-14819-0-00179600-1405105473_thumb.g  D8: post-14819-0-87251600-1405105078_thumb.g

 

With extended plume: D5: post-14819-0-59421000-1405105257_thumb.g  D6:  post-14819-0-01888800-1405105322_thumb.g  D7: post-14819-0-36610000-1405105337_thumb.g D8: post-14819-0-57763000-1405105135_thumb.g

 

So we have GFS at one end, JMA at the other and GEM and ECM in between. To be resolved...

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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I think if youre counting on plumes and strong heat next week, well you may be surprised or perhaps not. A difficult forecast next week to say the least. The models are really struggling with blocking to the east, giving the uncertainty in the models and of course the tropical developments the other side of the Atlantic......The devil will be in the detail next week,  But It does look like Britain will enjoy some  very warm conditions especially the southeastern side of the uk  wiith some thundery downpours.... :closedeyes:  :closedeyes:  :closedeyes:

post-6830-0-07579700-1405110146_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-35342000-1405110185_thumb.pn

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ECM ens resolutely back the operational pretty much all the way out

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GFS is off on another tangent, a UK ridge, which is an improvement on the previous run, but again lacks the potent heat. On the other hand it makes it very hard to trust the GFS over the other models which have shown some decent mid-range consistency.

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Of course the caveat is that they are all consistently wrong. We will find out more in the morning. The GFS should back down, but stranger things have happened........

Edited by Captain shortwave
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It's going to be a scorching Friday according to this mornings MetO run and I can easily see 30c being reached in the SE.

GFS is a little more complex and it's all over by Saturday but so far this summer such changes to unsettled conditions have failed to materialise.

Even in Cumbria it's been a cracking summer so far, much better than last year, my lawn is looking dry for the first time in many years.

Andy

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ECM still looking hot for the end of the week

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UKMO simliar

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GFS starting to find a little amplification over Europe and hence is better this morning

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GEM

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Weaker flow but still hot and rather complex meaning showers will be more widespread ahead of the developing thundery low.

 

There is good agreement on some form of thundery system developing on Friday, probably pushing north overnight into Saturday. GFS and GEM bring in cooler westerly winds though it is still average/slightly above temperature wise. Lets see how the ECM handles things.

 

Day 7

Posted Image

Great chart, very warm everywhere and hot over inland parts of England, Wales and even Scotland. Thunderstorms would also break out widely. How long can the ridge hold out for? Saturday has 90F written all over it with the 16C isotherm brushing the south east.

Looks like the Atlantic makes its move on Sunday, but the east getting another hot day.

Heh the ECM breakdown is from hot to very warm if anything else with the 8C isotherm still covering the UK at days 9 and 10.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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The ECM is really sticking to its guns this morning, this is a stunning chart for heat fans, with the entire UK and Ireland under 10C+ upper air. If only that 15C isotherm could advance a little bit further north- then again beggars can't be choosers!

 

Posted Image

Edited by Scorcher
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warm,very warm/hot...then warm.....

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

and pretty dry to boot......

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-rrrcum-london.gif

 

London i know.....

 

gotta say like has been said this summer although not hot..(so far :ninja: ) has been a great ao far here in the land of the sheep.

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The heat really starts to build by mid-week with all 3 main models showing a slow moving upper trough situated around 10 degrees west for the next few days and with continental heights this will draw very warm tropical air northwards.

After a slightly fresher feel to things from tomorrow and into early next week the surface flow turns more into the south as this much warmer air arrives.

The se quarter in particular will feel the heat whilst the far nw reamains under the occasional influence of the Icelandic weather systems moving across from the Atlantic so somewhat cooler and more changeable here.

 

T96hrs from GFS is typical of the 00z runs.

 

post-2026-0-36388700-1405150886_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-79941100-1405150895_thumb.pn

 

the highest temperatures of the Summer so far are quite likely around Weds/Fri with 30C looking reachable daytime in some southern locations

Usually in these setups 2-3 days of heat like this eventually breaks down with thundery activity as cooler Atlantic air pushes in.

This looks the way things will go by the end of the coming week.

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Yes the ECM HRES has some uncomfortable weather for the end of week but thankfully, certainly by Sunday it looks far more reasonable.

post-12275-0-21174200-1405152954_thumb.p

post-12275-0-35740700-1405152964_thumb.p

post-12275-0-95711000-1405152972_thumb.p

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post-12275-0-54253600-1405152993_thumb.p

post-12275-0-32914400-1405153003_thumb.p

post-12275-0-20886800-1405153015_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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As others have well put this Morning, We could finally see some real Summer heat by Thursday, Especially for the South of the UK. 

 

Posted ImagePosted Image4

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Temperatures a few degrees higher for Monday now, rain moving in slowly from the west

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Tuesday also warmer than previous runs into the low to mid 20's for many parts of England and Wales dry for most

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Wednesday sees the heat really starting to build again dry for England and Wales although the cape does begin to increase

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

By Thursday its another hot one 30c very possible with some thunderstorms

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

By Friday the hottest temperatures are in the south with 30c possible some torrential thunderstorms still possible

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

By Saturday we say goodby to the heat for now with fresher temperatures for all

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Stunning Summer charts on offer this morning for next week.

 

Heat and storms are on for most as the week progresses.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

 

So plenty to look forward too, and some warmth and storm potential before then as well.

 

Look at the lucky b%$*#rs on the continent, plenty of cape to tap into there.

Edited by SteveB
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Yes the ECM HRES has some uncomfortable weather for the end of week but thankfully, certainly by Sunday it looks far more reasonable.

Yes looking like week 2 reverts to the typical UK north-split split Knocker as the Atlantic westerly pattern re-establishes.

Day 10 mean 500hPa charts.

post-2026-0-04663200-1405156117_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-86310100-1405156107_thumb.pn

 

Looks like some Summer variety over the next 2 weeks.

A lot of dry days with 2-3 days of real heat later next week before a possible thundery breakdown.That followed by cooler fresher weather with some sunshine and occasional rain/showers following in week 2.

Detail that far out uncertain of course depending on how sharp the trough becomes but generally in that pattern the further south the better the outlook but the second week does look more changeable currently.

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The ECM is really sticking to its guns this morning, this is a stunning chart for heat fans, with the entire UK and Ireland under 10C+ upper air. If only that 15C isotherm could advance a little bit further north- then again beggars can't be choosers!

 

Posted Image

 

Yes, its a fine looking run from the ECM, and the mean too indicates the heat will hang on in eastern areas out to next Saturday. Finally, after a summer of decent but unspectacular warmth, we have some proper heat to look forward to.

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Yes looking like week 2 reverts to the typical UK north-split split Knocker as the Atlantic westerly pattern re-establishes.

Day 10 mean 500hPa charts.

Posted Imageg240.pngPosted Imageecm500.240.png

 

Looks like some Summer variety over the next 2 weeks.

A lot of dry days with 2-3 days of real heat later next week before a possible thundery breakdown.That followed by cooler fresher weather with some sunshine and occasional rain/showers following in week 2.

Detail that far out uncertain of course depending on how sharp the trough becomes but generally in that pattern the further south the better the outlook but the second week does look more changeable currently.

 

Yes it is an interesting outlook and as you say dependent on just where the upper trough sets up and how marked. The NOAA 6-10 continues to suggest fairly sharp. Ec and GFS are not a lot of help as GFS especially over the past 5-7 days has often been missing altogether or just a contour output as EC is again this morning. They have tended to show a 'flatter' type of trough. All 3, with some issues, mostly NOAA, over the past 3-5 days, have shown +ve heights and some indication of ridging in the contours E/NE of the UK. So detail is not really clear at 500mb so even less so at the surface beyond the next 3-5 days in my view.

links to NOAA and EC-GFS 500mb anomaly charts below

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

interesting also to read the NOAA discusiion on the same site as to which model(s) they have felt suggest the best pattern for their area.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Most days the 12z output does seem to have had a full chart from both models

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