Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

[shaky]

Gfs once again showing high pressure building in straightaway!!temps remaining in the mid 20s midlands southwards!!

[Man With Beard]

Well virtually no movement from GFS or UKMO towards ECM this morning, and Gem has moved quite a long way towards these two. No proper cool down at all in the south and quickly turning hot again by this time next week. I can't see anything but a climbdown from Ecm later this morming now - its previous runs look very isolated.

[ncikos]

Looking for Autumnal after this week with showers or longer spells of rain likely.Hopefully this will last a few weeks and end what has been a pretty poor summer.

Edited July 23, 2014 by Polar Maritime
Can we try and add a little substance and Model evidence to back up sweeping statements like this. Thanks.

[SteveB]

Well GFS is showing the warm/hot weather persisting well into next week with also the threat of some heavy downpours.

 

Scotland & Ireland are always looking cooler and wetter, especially next week.

 

Looking good still for some more Summer weather.

 

 

Edited July 23, 2014 by SteveB

[Hathers]

Ncikos to be honest this year has been a pretty decent summer. Lots of settled weather and warm temps. I can't see where you coming from regarding unsettled weather next week. The models are showing it warming up again next week.

[mushymanrob]

I do recall about 2 weeks ago one particular poster wrote off the last third of July. Hmmm.....

 

hmm... and if you read what "that poster" said, youd see they so far they arent wrong. a week of widespread heat doesnt yet equal the great long hot summers that they highlighted in their post.

 

we are a long way from getting anything like a 76, 83, 95, etc. although there is time yet and if the current trend continues, as the models suggest, 'hot' weather isnt too far away albeit indispersed with cooler interludes.

 

Looking for Autumnal after this week with showers or longer spells of rain likely.Hopefully this will last a few weeks and end what has been a pretty poor summer

 

Anyway time for work

 

are you sure youre viewing this years models?    i cant see anything 'autumnal' outside a few rogue runs in fi. and im a pessimist! whilst the models are struggling to get a grip on what will follow this current hot spell, its looking average at worst. as others have said, predictions of an atlantic incursion have failed to materialise or become pattern changing features. whilst we are unlikely to get an august like 95, long hot and sunny, high pressure seems to be never too far off and i see no reason atm why the summers current pattern of high pressure dominance bringing spells of heat/sun with cooler fresher spells shouldnt continue into august.

[William of Walworth]

The ECM ens 6-10 500mb anomaly has a swathe of cold air to the north, a ridge eastern Europe, warm air in the western Atlantic and the usual cutoff low, A general westerly flow with generally unsettled surface pattern with temps around average.

 

Could you please have a go at reconciling what's shown on the links you posted, knocker, with what some other runs have tended still to show? Haven't time to update myself with all the very latest output this morning (off to work v soon) but while I'm inclined to agree with Hathers post (just above), and mushy's too,  for now, I'm also realistic enough to accept less good news when it's there. 

 

Still, what you posted, especially the bit I've bolded,  looked a little out of line with other output to me -- explain please.

Edited July 23, 2014 by William of Walworth

[Polar Maritime]

GFS this morning continues to show cooler/fresher weather for around the turn of the Month. Especially for the North.

 

Edited July 23, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the ECM to a degree has backed off this morning, it still shows the most progressive solution of pushing cooler air through the UK, but it now also brings the Azores high into play and settles things down for next week.

I still think the ECM is overdoing this and is pushing too much energy south east when it should be going over the top. The other models pretty much all agree with each other up to day 6

The GFS/GEM are very similar to this.

 

The GFS and GEM keep the very warm conditions going through the whole of next week and into the start of August. Both wanting to develop an Atlantic trough to tug warmer air up from the south.

Edited July 23, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[knocker]

Could you please have a go at reconciling what's shown on the links you posted, knocker, with what some other runs have tended still to show? Haven't time to update myself with all the very latest output this morning (off to work v soon) but while I'm inclined to agree with Hathers post (just above), and mushy's too,  for now, I'm also realistic enough to accept less good news when it's there. 

 

Still, what you posted, especially the bit I've bolded,  looked a little out of line with other output to me -- explain please.

 

WoW I don't  tend to look on it as good or bad news, it's immaterial to me and rather pointless. So I tend to generally just look at he ECM with the occasional sojourns elsewhere and don't really spend much time dissecting other model outputs as well. as It seems to me others cover this quite well and too much of this leads to a lot of repetition. You have probably gathered I'm not really a model thread person so apologies if this fails to answer your query.

Edited July 23, 2014 by knocker

[Bristawl Si]

 

hmm... and if you read what "that poster" said, youd see they so far they arent wrong. a week of widespread heat doesnt yet equal the great long hot summers that they highlighted in their post. we are a long way from getting anything like a 76, 83, 95, etc. although there is time yet and if the current trend continues, as the models suggest, 'hot' weather isnt too far away albeit indispersed with cooler interludes.

I'm not worried about "great long hot summers" and i havent used that term.I'm enjoying this pretty decent summer - i think that's the term i used. nuff said.

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please "only" discuss Model Output in here as per thread title. There are other threads for moaning and banter here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79882-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2014/page-27#entry3012647

 

Many Thanks, Please continue.

 

PM.

[knocker]

Looking at the ECM HRES for next week and it is going for relatively settled conditions. The anomaly still has a swathe of colder air to the north with the Bermuda high dominating the western Atlantic with an arm stretching eastwards. The jet swivels around this and then south of the UK so an incursion of air from Europe cannot be ruled out but one has to say looks fairly settled. Temps around average or slightly above.

 

Just to add it's been a great summer in these parts. Must be down to the MJO.

Edited July 23, 2014 by knocker

[shaky]

Ecm has virtually backed off the troughy run it had yesterday and is starting to follow the ukmo/gfs of keeping these very warm conditions going!!expect to see further improvements from ecm this evening!!

[Summer Sun]

With winds shown to turn more westerly on UKMO this morning the north could be affected by a bit more cloud at times early next week but for most UKMO shows it to remain mainly dry though temperatures will probably fall back slightly especially in the south

 

 

GEM has moved towards UKMO this morning

 

 

ECM though still doesn't agree with the above and turns things more unsettled with temperatures a lot lower than of late and an increased risk of showers, GFS has also backed away now with pressure falling early next week increasing the risk of rain / showers

 

 

 

[knocker]

The ECM ens is much the same as the last run with cold air on the anomaly chart to the N and NE with the warm air in the western Atlantic.

 

Should lead to fairly settled HP conditions from an arm of the Bermuda high to the west but possible a breakdown to more unsettled conditions at the end of the run. Slightly above average temps.

Edited July 23, 2014 by knocker

[Jezzer]

With winds shown to turn more westerly on UKMO this morning the north could be affected by a bit more cloud at times early next week but for most UKMO shows it to remain mainly dry though temperatures will probably fall back slightly especially in the south GEM has moved towards UKMO  ECM though still doesn't agree with the above and turns things more unsettled with temperatures a lot lower than of late and an increased risk of showers, GFS has also backed away now with pressure falling early next week increasing the risk of rain / showers

The GFS 06z run retains the high pressure early next week with temps in the south in the mid twentiesLow pressure does make an appearance from the North West later in the week, still a while away obviously

[knocker]

Comparing the GFS and ECM anomaly charts sees a very similar picture but then wind the GFS on a bit. Well yes................................

Edited July 23, 2014 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

well, i guess this is the type of chart that was referred to as 'autumnal'

 

 

the gfs in fi has been quick to bring in the atlantic, indeed it predicted such a scenario after last weekends storms, we now should be in an atlantic driven regime.  it didnt happen, we are enjoying some splendid warm sunny weather. so until theres solid support from the anomalies and ecm, im not fussed about an fi prediction like the gfs suggests on its 06z run. one day itll be right, and we have had a run of poor augusts, who knows it might be right this time. but its too soon to get too downhearted by it.

[phil nw.]

It's seems the settled pattern will see a brief interruption at the end of this week.

The forecasted shallow trough comes through the UK over the weekend bringing a bit of a change off the Atlantic.

 

We can see of the T84hrs fax a fairly weak front coming east and this will bring some patchy rain or a few showers through with it but a lot of areas will see very little.It will feshen things up as slightly cooler Atlantic air moves in from the west.

 

We then see pressure building across the country again afterwards so conditions soon returning to fine and settled for a while.

In fact much of next week looks fine and dry for much of the country with temperatures on the rise again especially further south where mid-high 20's C look likely again by mid-week onwards..

The far north appears to be the exception again as Atlantic fronts brush across there from time to time with some occasional cloud and rain and cooler temperatures. 

Just a hint from the mean charts this morning of the high retreating west towards day 10 with an approaching trough from the north west but it's early days yet and this is something to monitor over the next few runs.

For now though it seems the decent Summer for many of us goes on for another week or so with just that short blip to come at the weekend.

 

[shaky]

Massive differences on this gfs run earlier on!!more amplified and much cooler weather on the way from sunday!!eat my words from this morning about the ecm!!looke more like the gfs and maybe even the ukmo are gona backtrack!!its ridiculous really when you see changes at just 72 hours its really poor from the models!!

[Yarmy]

Massive differences on this gfs run earlier on!!more amplified and much cooler weather on the way from sunday!!eat my words from this morning about the ecm!!looke more like the gfs and maybe even the ukmo are gona backtrack!!its ridiculous really when you see changes at just 72 hours its really poor from the models!!

 

The UKMO isn't out yet (at the time of this post anyway).

 

Don't worry about individual ops. Wait for the ensembles.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO seems to have pushed the high further west this afternoon dry for most on Monday but some showers for the far north with it turning breezier as well on Tuesday

 

 

t96 850's unavailable at the time of posting

 

Edited July 23, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Man With Beard]

UKMO seems to have pushed the high further west this afternoon dry for most on Monday but some showers for the far north with it turning breezier as well on Tuesday

 

 

t96 850's unavailable at the time of posting

 

Well this is a bit more like the old days, with the ECM out on its own at T72 and the other models ending up with egg on their face. All models including GEM taking lower pressure SE across some part of the country on Sunday/Monday. Will make a big difference to temperatures next week: low 20s instead of high 20s.

[Jezzer]

Well this is a bit more like the old days, with the ECM out on its own at T72 and the other models ending up with egg on their face. All models including GEM taking lower pressure SE across some part of the country on Sunday/Monday. Will make a big difference to temperatures next week: low 20s instead of high 20s.

 

Yep, despite this apparent change, next week temps still look pleasant for the time of year, above average for southern England according to GFS

 

Edited July 23, 2014 by Jezzer