Storm and Convective Discussion 23rd June Onwards

[Wilxy]

torriential downpour now separate cell with no thunder.

 

Although thunder seems isolated so far with not much in the way of thunderstorms.

Edited June 28, 2014 by tomjwlx

[Chris K]

Indeed, they seem to be developing from almost nothing. Promising signs and considering. Glad the bins ok Stuff sitting over S Wales also showing signs of pepping up, aiming your way?

Yep passing to my NW by a few miles. Loud claps of thunder with heavy rain here at the moment! Skies are pretty plain grey and boring though! Haha

[Ben Sainsbury]

We're lucky because storms will continue to develop through the afternoon, it's a positive sign that there is thunder already. Anyhow I have currently missed the storm from yesterday and the current thunder from today, typical living in South Bristol.

Edited June 28, 2014 by Ben Sainsbury

[> mark]

Been out for a short while and warm, sunny and pretty sticky here this morning!

It's the local school fair today (not fayre as discussed here http://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/9390015/Oliver-Pritchett-Its-fair-not-fayre.html) so I'm hoping for a fairly dry day.

It'd be nice to have a âš¡ to clear the air but without rain, is that even possible?

[Chris K]

Well thunder has died down now, but haven't had it this early for a while. Bodes well for others later more S and E of me I feel

[Greeny]

What sort of risk for severe weather do we have today? A slight risk? I don't mind where

Edited June 28, 2014 by Greenday

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just heard thunder, though not sure where from?

[Ben Sainsbury]

If you run the radar loop back an hour, all the showers virtually formed within that timespace of an hour!

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

 

Issued 2014-06-28 07:55:10

Valid: 28/06/2014 0800z to 29/06/2014 0600z

 

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

Synopsis

Upper trough axis lies NE to SW across the UK towards the Bay of Biscay today, moving slowly E/SE. A slack area of surface low pressure covers Sern UK, an occluded front will move slowly south across Wales and central England through the day. Deeply unstable conditions will affect S England to the south of occluded front. A weak ridge of high pressure to the north of the front will bring stable conditions to the rest of the UK.

 

... S WALES, MIDLANDS, S ENGLAND and E ANGLIA ...

 

Moist airmass to the south of southward moving frontal zone will shift a little further south today, with more of southern England likely to see a risk of thunderstorms today compared to yesterday. Surface heating of this moist airmass beneath cold mid-levels of upper trough will create steep lapse rates across the above areas, with 300-700 j/kg CAPE indicated by this afternoon. Therefore heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop through the day and will be slow-moving given decrease today in steering winds aloft. Vertical shear will be weak, though a few strong storms may become focused and organised near breeze convergence zone shifting slowly south from Wales/Midlands towards S England, bringing a risk of large rainfall totals within a short space of time leading to a risk of localised flash-flooding. Also, storms maybe accompanied by hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Funnel clouds or even a brief weak tornado can't be ruled out from storms near breeze convergence zone. Storms will drift slowly south towards the S coast this evening before dying out in the early hours.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

 

Full forecast here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Edited June 28, 2014 by Nick F

[Greeny]

Was organising this then Nick posted, will post anyway :-)

Nice high lapse rates over the are of interest.

Deep layer sheer is reasonable over the east and southeast hopefully sustaining anything that develops. Lowe layer sheer is just slight.

Wind convergence showing across the UK.

That's from the nmm model anyway (amateur perspective).

I noticed the potential slowly drifting se into the evening. Good luck I hope you all get storms.

[Wet'n'Dry]

Morning all, very heavy convective style raindrops falling at Dawlish  http://www.dawlishbeach.com/live/index.php?main_page=index&cPath=18 the webcam is picking them up nicely.

 

Meantime in Essex, things seem to be developing rapidly, good luck to those anticipating a hefty storm or two 

[Azazel]

How much further north do you think?

Lincolnshire

[boogercj]

Big flash and a loud, shotgun like bang of thunder. Reckon it was only a few streets away from me and confirmed by blitzortung. Very excited as we've had b#gger all down here all year. Alas, it was only a solitary strike, at the end of a torrential downpour but proves there's potential around.

[Karl83]

Thunder here again!

[Wilxy]

More distant thunder heard now. Not sure which cell its coming from

Edited June 28, 2014 by tomjwlx

[Karl83]

And again. Seems to be the Cell from the South, Tom.

[Wilxy]

Ok that wasn't distant now.

[MartinD]

Just this minute heard 3 deep booms of thunder over Worcester, no rain at all but the sky is becoming very dark to our north and south west....

[Biggin]

Rumble of thunder Croydon way bout 20 mins ago

[AWD]

A couple of mini-claps of thunder here.

Not too sure where from as it is fairly bright outside.

[Wilxy]

big rumble of thunder

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Wht direction are the clouds supposed to be heading? I read it was ESE but here it's ENE. This gonna shift?

Last awesome storm was on an ESE direction wind from South Wales/Gloucester and produced lots of CGs.

I want that again!

[Mapantz]

Dry, warm and sunny here. Not even a hint of a shower.

[Mustang]

Is Chelmsford expecting anything today? tstorms seem to miss this area lately (infact it's becoming a regular occurance now)

Edited June 28, 2014 by Mustang

[tcc]

have heard two lots of thunder this morning from one cell over north Sussex