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Storm and Convective Discussion 23rd June Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, UK
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, UK

    Been kicking off here in Norwich since 12ish.

    It's cleared and its sunny atm, which should provide some decent surface heating with the added bonus of being able to see the towering cumulus in all directions.

    View to the southeast:

    post-21867-0-59983600-1403882057_thumb.j

    View to the northeast:

    post-21867-0-41762300-1403881928_thumb.j

    The best is still to come according to the forecast.

    Currently over 800j/kg CAPE here according to the V4 radar too.

    It's getting interesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

    Personally I don't look at the BBC forecasts because of their accuracy - I look at Netweather and a few others and whoever is roughly matching each other, that is my general view of the weather. I'm trying to slowly learn charts and whatnot. However, Netweather said 52% chance of storm (yesterday) for today (and tomorrow also), which was soon wiped off the 10 day forecast this morning. The other weather sources I look at state thunderstorms also, so that is what I am kind of expecting.

     

    Having said that, we have blue skies and scattered cloud here, with some convection, more towards the distance. I am not expecting anything to produce right now. I think I need really to move to Peterborough/Norwich area, as they have had a great showing recently.

     

    North France is having a good storm presently also, showing up on NW radar.

    Still a chance of something post front if the right ingredients come together around here CA, keep them eyes out the window.

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    Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL

    Looks to be a storm forming just to the west of Glastonbury, around the Bridgwater area.

     

    Glastonbury is about to get pasted! Round here the skies are starting to look very convective again with large towering cumulus building and some nice looking cells off to my SW so I'm hoping they intensify, amazing what a bit of warm sunshine is capable of, was looking like a no hope day here for anything stormy. Still plenty of time for something to fire up, doesn't get dark till well past 10pm still  :yahoo: 

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Wondering if the storm just exited Great Yarmouth had supercellular elements to it. Seemed to be a right turner instead of going off NE. 200+mm/hr rainfall rates in it too! Some going !

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    Posted
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)
  • Weather Preferences: Fair Weather, Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)

    One rumble in the distance but I think it may just miss me here. Light rain falling from the overhang of the cell. Do I go to the gym or not is the question. Don't want to miss a storm.

    That's strange, I am in the very same predicament.I have my gym clothes on, but I'm looking at this storm wondering whether I should chase. Another distration from the gym lol!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

    mmmm something has appeared.

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    Storms running close to Glastonbury!

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Just a bit of factual to try and answer the forecast bashing going on with 1 or 2 of you if admin/mods will allow.

     

    Do forecasters not suffer the consequences of getting their forecast wrong. Not as such other than the pride all professional whatever the ology in getting the prediction right not wrong.

     

    How difficult is it to predict where a storm will occur=quite difficult in predicting an area, say a forecast suggests some places in the Midlands are likely to see a storm tomorrow (NOT a forecast simply an illustration). So where, IF the forecaster has time, words allowed etc, then they would make comment on where maximum heating occurs and upwind of such areas (one would need to know what that wind was=look at the nearest skew-t diagram), areas with low level wind convergence, hills etc. But as to precise location no that is pretty much impossible other than the guidance in the previous sentence.

     

    Predicting storms is pretty difficult in anything other than suggesting areas most likely.

     

    Somone mentioned using those with a knowledge on web sites=on Net Wx look for inputs from Nick F when he is around.

     

    To add some practical advice

    look at the relevant skew-t diagram, watch the radar, look at the latest observations from whichever site you prefer

    see how T and Td are moving relative to what is needed for deep convection on the skew-t, enjoy the cloud scapes even if you get no storm, enjoy reading or watching what someone else posted.

    enjoy the weather-it is a fascinating if at times frustrating hobby.

     

    hope the above helps?

    Edited by johnholmes
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    There's some pretty intense rain in there, as well as plenty of lightning.

    post-15177-0-42979300-1403883489_thumb.ppost-15177-0-45025700-1403883522_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Burnham-on-sea
  • Location: Burnham-on-sea

    I can still here constant rumbling.

    Lots of lightening still going on. Bright and sunny to the back of my house, pitch black to the front.

    Glastonbury are getting wet!!!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, sunny, warm, hot, and thundery conditions 🧡
  • Location: Warwickshire

    Torrential Showers this morning, no convection so far.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Not even a drop of rain all day. Clouds look convective in nature, wonder if they will produce anything?

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    Posted
  • Location: Congresbury, North Somerset
  • Location: Congresbury, North Somerset

    Lots of thundery rumbles from this, looking South towards the Mendips, moving North East, so right to left in this case. :-)post-8699-0-47981100-1403884390_thumb.jp

    Edited by smiles
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    Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL

    Started to go very dark to the SW of MK, looks like there is a storm brewing  :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL

    OMG, huge flash of lightning and instant extremely loud thunder here in mk :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Well that was useless. A few distant bangs of thunder as the sky gets darker, then the storm veers eastwards last minute missing my location. Pfft. Tomorrow better deliver something!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

    OMG, huge flash of lightning and instant extremely loud thunder here in mk :D

    pffff, cloud has split here. wind got up and a little spot of rain. Can see that storm, been like that all day, Doesn't matter where the showers come from they get here and almost circle round. :(

     

    Just heard some distant thunder...

    Edited by Dami
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield

    Poss supercell out in the North Sea! Just exited the E coast. What a waste...

    Looks like a very strong storm. Bugger all here but drizzle and murk haha :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

    Looks like i have two storms, One MK way (my back) and one at the front of the house. Clear sky above me.

    Edited by Dami
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    Sons txtd from Glastonbury thunder and lightning like crazy !!!.......

     

    Shame it wasn't dark....Who needs a laser show :good:

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