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Storm and Convective Discussion 23rd June Onwards


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Such is the nature of showers, as is so often said, some will get them, some won't.Oh and by the way Crepuscular Ray, to take a word from your last post but one..."onslaught"??????Really? I'm on to you. Although you neglected to mention "human sacrifices...dogs and cats living together...mass hysteria" you have just about provided enough evidence for me to state that:You are Nathan Rao and I claim my five pounds.

 

you forgot the Four Horsemen

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Dull and drizzly at the moment. If the sun is out by late morning, then it's game on. Just hope today isn't a bust!

 

with the high pressure to the north I assume the cloud and rain will only get so far north so sunshine might be in short supply of course all of this is just guesswork

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I think those of us who are picky about terminology would probably describe that as intermittent rain rather than showers.

 

From the radar, it looks as though the first element of today's threatened onslaught has already hit the south-west.

Yes, it's about to hit me now. A few thunderstorms recently over the Irish Sea but nothing over land or my way.

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lm confused, by the looks of the GFS charts there is high possibilities of thunder in the hereford area, yet going by the storm forcast/storm percentages supposedly nothing is expected here today.. yesterday was showing a good 60% chance.. now tomorrow seems to show more chance with a 52% chance of something.

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lm confused, by the looks of the GFS charts there is high possibilities of thunder in the hereford area, yet going by the storm forcast/storm percentages supposedly nothing is expected here today.. yesterday was showing a good 60% chance.. now tomorrow seems to show more chance with a 52% chance of something.

 

could it have something to do with that they forecast overcast skies when tomorrow is forecast to be brighter

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l tend to follow both met office and netweather forecasts and read in between the lines from there. but going by what l read on the text forecast it suggests less possibility tomorrow than netweather suggests.

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Dull and drizzly at the moment. If the sun is out by late morning, then it's game on. Just hope today isn't a bust!

Should brighten up by late morning. If so then its looking good for our area yet again!

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l tend to follow both met office and netweather forecasts and read in between the lines from there. but going by what l read on the text forecast it suggests less possibility tomorrow than netweather suggests.

 

yep according to the met office its more southern counties of England tomorrow which is an improvement for us for tomorrow

 

currently very overcast with rain very slowly creeping up towards us

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l tend to follow both met office and netweather forecasts and read in between the lines from there. but going by what l read on the text forecast it suggests less possibility tomorrow than netweather suggests.

It's an interesting point you make about the MO and GFS forecasts.  Looking at the BBC Breakfast forecast it looked as if any (or most ) thundery activity will pass over before lunch, whereas the detailed forecast (off the forecast page) says between 22-23:00 tonight will be torrential,  Against those 2, we have the NMM-6 developing a humdinger offshore at 17:00 with heavy rain at 20:00 from the southwest.

 

In other words  --  take your pick 

 

Nobody knows

Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather
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still even more confused tho, according to Pauls post lm within the "slight" risk area but the outputs on the forecast page give zero percentage of anything kicking off here today.. and lve looked at the charts and from what basic knowledge l have its left me confused how l could be in a slight area when the latest forecast run shows no percentage (that said my guess is on the lunchtime run at 12.30ish my guess is the predictions from midnight may reappear considering the past few times possibilities shot up).

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Overcast and grey looking here with the odd bit of drizzle. Skies trying to brighten so no doubt the powerful sun will break the cloud up fairly easily as it gets towards lunchtime. My only concern at the moment is those arms of non electrified rainfall over the SW of the UK heading up north eastwards and ruining any storm potential.

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Overcast and grey looking here with the odd bit of drizzle. Skies trying to brighten so no doubt the powerful sun will break the cloud up fairly easily as it gets towards lunchtime. My only concern at the moment is those arms of non electrified rainfall over the SW of the UK heading up north eastwards and ruining any storm potential.

 

yep if it stays overcast then that could cause issues

 

there is currently rain over us which isn't going anywhere quickly

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still even more confused tho, according to Pauls post lm within the "slight" risk area but the outputs on the forecast page give zero percentage of anything kicking off here today.. and lve looked at the charts and from what basic knowledge l have its left me confused how l could be in a slight area when the latest forecast run shows no percentage (that said my guess is on the lunchtime run at 12.30ish my guess is the predictions from midnight may reappear considering the past few times possibilities shot up).

 

The model prediction is looking at the atmospherics but also the precipitation forecast at that point, so even if the atmosphere is primed for a storm, if it doesn't expect precip in your location then it'll say 0%. Once we're at close range though it's a case of nowcasting and watching the radar etc as storm/convective development is by nature very localised. 

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still even more confused tho, according to Pauls post lm within the "slight" risk area but the outputs on the forecast page give zero percentage of anything kicking off here today..

Where's here though? You can put your location in your profile. :)
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I wouldn't worry too much about sunshine today. Showers will become electrified across the Midlands etc- this afternoon, regardless. The showers should clear southern most counties by then but sunny spells may kick off one or two thundery showers behind it. Localised flooding reports are likely today!

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