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Roger J Smith

July 2014 CET Forecasts

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I have the table of forecasts ready to post at midnight, just changed my own very slightly to fill a space at 17.9. If you want an open spot, these were open before I posted this:

 

16.8, 18.3, 18.4, 18.6

 

and most below 16.1.

 

Check the table for the final details but it looks like the median is around 17.0 so a general expectation of warmth.

 

 

 

 

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Ok just in time for midnight.

 

The mild/warm train is showing no signs of slowing down.  Another above average month then, but as always, how much is the question?

 

My July guess is 17.7C please.

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Ahh ive missed the last few months :S sorry for being late, 17.0 for me if still possible :)

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My heart hopes for a Dickensian 13C but my head says to expect the warmest July on record... soooo 20C  :(

 

Thank you for your high hopes :crazy: But you have no chance, 'Thank God!!!' ....HOT! sultry nights, definitely don't appeal to me :good: 

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Late 17.7 for me

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July opens up with 16.7c to the 1st

 

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

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Nice warm start then

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Nice warm start then

 

to another warm month in 2014!

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Up-to 17.2c to the 4th

 

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

Edited by Summer Sun

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16.0C for me. (bit late  I know)

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No update from Hadley again today must be a problem so where

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Hadley have at last updated...... 16.3c.   Anomaly   0.6c.  Provisional to 8th. ...

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1981-2010 July CET averages and cumulative monthly "normals"

 

 

  1 __ 15.9 __ 15.9

  2 __ 15.9 __ 15.9

  3 __ 15.9 __ 15.9

  4 __ 16.0 __ 15.9

  5 __ 16.4 __ 16.0

  6 __ 16.3 __ 16.1

  7 __ 16.3 __ 16.1

  8 __ 16.6 __ 16.2

  9 __ 16.3 __ 16.2

10 __ 16.6 __ 16.2

11 __ 16.7 __ 16.3

12 __ 16.5 __ 16.3

13 __ 16.6 __ 16.3

14 __ 16.8 __ 16.3

15 __ 17.0 __ 16.4

16 __ 16.8 __ 16.4

17 __ 16.3 __ 16.4

18 __ 16.5 __ 16.4

19 __ 16.9 __ 16.4

20 __ 17.2 __ 16.5

21 __ 16.9 __ 16.5

22 __ 16.9 __ 16.5

23 __ 16.9 __ 16.5

24 __ 16.6 __ 16.5

25 __ 17.0 __ 16.6

26 __ 17.2 __ 16.6

27 __ 17.2 __ 16.6

28 __ 17.4 __ 16.6

29 __ 17.7 __ 16.7

30 __ 17.4 __ 16.7

31 __ 17.2 __ 16.7

 

 

29 July is the warmest day of the year in this data set, but with a warmer start, 6 August has the warmest monthly cumulative value of 17.0 (16.99) although 5-8 Aug reach that same figure after rounding. For some reason 1-2 Aug drop to about 16.7 which prevents a higher value at the start of the month.

 

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16.3C to the 9th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

Yesterday was 16.4C. The minimum today is 10.3C while maxima look like reaching near 21C, so drop to 16.2C is possible tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

16.3C to the 11th (17.1)

16.5C to the 12th (18.6)

16.6C to the 13th (17.2)

16.4C to the 14th (14.4)

16.5C to the 15th (18.3)

16.7C to the 16th (19.4)

16.8C to the 17th (18.6)

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