South East England, East Anglia & Central Southern England Regional Weather Chat

[Harps]

Looks like that's our lot then apart from some more typical thundery showers tomorrow afternoon.

Have to say the models and forecasts in general were very poor for this event, I know they're hard to forecast when the atmosphere is so volatile but the models totally missed big events like the MCS in Northern France yesterday evening and really overestimated the amount of action we'd see across the UK.

Looking forward to a good hot settled spell now, hopefully a few days with no cloud. Models this evening very promising for that

[Jax]

Think the models and forecasts were close just late and the real storm session was the one we all got a day early.

[Ellozee]

Trying to stay optimistic that we might import some more of the storms further south in France later in the early hours.. anyone think that's possible/likely?

[Team Jo]

tbh, I've seen far more favourable conditions for Severe weather in the US forecast, and it's still not delivered the goods. Models are interpretations of statistical algorithms, and open t human interpretation - and there's always a lot of chance involved with a Plume event, especially on a tiny island surrounded by water! I don't think anyone could correctly predict 100% the track of any of the activity, esp when we've had both homegrown and imports on the table. 

[loopydreamer]

Think the models and forecasts were close just late and the real storm session was the one we all got a day early.

I have been thinking that very same thing. Totally agree!

[Neilsouth]

tbh, I've seen far more favourable conditions for Severe weather in the US forecast, and it's still not delivered the goods. Models are interpretations of statistical algorithms, and open t human interpretation - and there's always a lot of chance involved with a Plume event, especially on a tiny island surrounded by water! I don't think anyone could correctly predict 100% the track of any of the activity, esp when we've had both homegrown and imports on the table. 

 

BUT

 

Do the forecasts keep you up to date in the states? They don't in this country, sometimes you can watch a forecast about two hours later and it's saying the same thing as before yet the weather has already been different. Or you might see a forecast at 9pm, storms are across the south east and they just skip straight to tomorrow.

 

The rain predictions are BAD

The updates are awful

The pre-recorded messages are a waste of time

The screen panning is a waste of money

[Team Jo]

BUT

 

Do the forecasts keep you up to date in the states? They don't in this country, sometimes you can watch a forecast about two hours later and it's saying the same thing as before yet the weather has already been different. Or you might see a forecast at 9pm, storms are across the south east and they just skip straight to tomorrow.

 

The rain predictions are BAD

The updates are awful

The pre-recorded messages are a waste of time

The screen panning is a waste of money

Sorry, not sure where you're going with this! I'm sure the chief forecaster at the met would appreciate your feedback.

[cloudsabove]

Raining here - still warm. Went out to capture the small slice of the current system now out in the channel, which gave a great little show of bolts and anvil crawlers.

 

 

[saint]

BUT

 

Do the forecasts keep you up to date in the states? They don't in this country, sometimes you can watch a forecast about two hours later and it's saying the same thing as before yet the weather has already been different. Or you might see a forecast at 9pm, storms are across the south east and they just skip straight to tomorrow.

 

The rain predictions are BAD

The updates are awful

The pre-recorded messages are a waste of time

The screen panning is a waste of money

 

If you are indeed, seeking the truth... ( ) As advised above, speak to someone at the Met, I'm sure they'd appreciate your feedback. 

[Crepuscular Ray]

Hi Neil/Mr Meldrew/Truthseeker

 

It's to do with the technology. A lunchtime forecast on the BBC will be based on the model from at least six hours earlier and the forecasters can't change the graphics, although they do have the leeway to say "We think this will be earlier", or "Perhaps areas to the west might get more of a chance". 

 

Hope this clarifies the issue.

[Harps]

tbh, I've seen far more favourable conditions for Severe weather in the US forecast, and it's still not delivered the goods. Models are interpretations of statistical algorithms, and open t human interpretation - and there's always a lot of chance involved with a Plume event, especially on a tiny island surrounded by water! I don't think anyone could correctly predict 100% the track of any of the activity, esp when we've had both homegrown and imports on the table.

I've no problems with the met forecasts really, they can only work off the data available. It's just a bit strange when extreme high res models can miss something as blatant as a massive MCS a couple of hours before it kicks off. More input data is clearly needed if we ever want a workable forecast in these type of setupsAnyway, I'm straying off topic with this, very humid and oppressive again here tonight, another bad nights sleep ahead

[stainesbloke]

Last 48 hours activity is quite impressive I think, despite the potential for much worse.

[Captain Shortwave]

It's of course worth noting that the Metoffice Amber warning was for the central spine of the country. Which is pretty much where the most intense storms formed.

It's not over yet, tomorrow still sees 850s of +12C over the east of the country and with only a very light north westerly wind and a still unstable airflow, showers and thunderstorms of a homegrown nature are likely. These potentially becoming prolonged in eastern areas as an onshore breeze develops which will aid convection in areas close to the coast.

Temperatures look very good (24-27C widely). 

 

The week ahead looks settled and very warm. Perhaps hot in the home counties.

 

Looks like east Norfolk and Suffolk are having fun now, including the triangle of doom according to radar.

Edited July 19, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[dragonslayer]

Still nice and humid here...just had night out and every1 outside. Luv it x

Had few drinks to build up courage to post first post lol

just found edit button lol

Edited July 19, 2014 by dragonslayer

[lassie23]

Still nice and humid here...just had night out and every1 outside. Luv it xHad few drinks to build up courage to post first post loljust found edit button lol

Lot's of people post whilst drunk so not a problem! Hello dragonslayer BTW! 22c here, very humid!

Edited July 19, 2014 by lassie23

[Rezillo]

Mid Suffolk - occasional thunder and lightning to our east for some time, moderate rainfall here. Now some distant lightning flashes and rumbles to the south - Ipswich or thereabouts.

 

Could be a bit wet at Latitude and the lightning map has some strikes in the general area.

[JMTD]

Just see the picture on facebook of the woman's house that got struck. Roof basically gone and house up in flames.

 

And people actually like this weather 

[dragonslayer]

Lot's of people post whilst drunk so not a problem! Hello dragonslayer BTW! 22c here, very humid!

Hi :-)... Ah only few drinks not drunk but still time lol xIs that your dog in your avi? So pretty Edited July 19, 2014 by dragonslayer

[lassie23]

Just see the picture on facebook of the woman's house that got struck. Roof basically gone and house up in flames.

 

And people actually like this weather 

To all those who hate storms or are frightened of them, yes they can be dangerous, but thankfully having your house struck by lightning, like this poor lady did, is very rare!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Just went and had a look East from the Cromer -  Aylsham road at the storm running up the East Coast.

 

Got a few shots, the pick of which are

 

 

[saint]

All sorts of weather sadly have these impacts... People will die due to heatwaves, snow can be very dangerous, especially to those driving, floods, as we know can be devastating.

 

There's no point singling out a certain type of weather when all types can, when most severe, cause damage to life and property. 

Edited July 19, 2014 by saint

[Mr.Plow]

Still Thunder and Lightning here on the east coast. Lots out to sea but close enough for some lovely skies.

 

 

Now intensifying again!

Edited July 19, 2014 by Mr.Plow

[lassie23]

Hi :-)... Ah only few drinks not drunk but still time lol xIs that your dog in your avi? So pretty

 Lovely picture! I actually have a cat instead!   Did you get any storms in your part of London today, I dodged the lot! Is that you in your avatar?

Edited July 19, 2014 by lassie23

[Iceni]

Mid Suffolk - occasional thunder and lightning to our east for some time, moderate rainfall here. Now some distant lightning flashes and rumbles to the south - Ipswich or thereabouts.

 

Could be a bit wet at Latitude and the lightning map has some strikes in the general area.

 

Actually I'm a bit spooked. It's a long story but my sister gave us her dog Ludo when she had her second baby - she couldn't handle the walks and a new baby. Ludo settled down really well and everything was fine, but he would never ever go into a room with an open fire in it. No reason at all for his phobia. We just accepted it as part of his nature. But 6 years later my sister's house burned down when a lit log rolled onto the carpet. We all remembered Ludo's premonition.

 

My dog hates lightning, it's the lightning not the thunder as he's ok when he hears it in the distance.... hope we don't have another dog prophet.

[Jax]

I thought you had to drink to post here?

 

hot and humid is the score here, no activity storm wise at this point, no rain, no breeze, no winning lotto ticket.