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Paul

South East England, East Anglia & Central Southern England Regional Weather Chat

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I was! It's so nice I've forgotten what it's like

I might go do the same to cool off!

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I think the point was,and my point anyway is that their graphics were not even reflecting a 'nowcast' situation.Surely they can update the forecast so folk watching can go out armed with a brolly!

The trouble is that the graphics are based on the metoffices high-res model(s) which only run a couple of times a day. Tracking frontal rain is quite easy, the metoffice has 1 hour updates for rain instead of the 3 on the bbc website. The best way is and will be using the various free radar websites or of course the netweather own radar :).

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The trouble is that the graphics are based on the metoffices high-res model(s) which only run a couple of times a day. Tracking frontal rain is quite easy, the metoffice has 1 hour updates for rain instead of the 3 on the bbc website. The best way is and will be using the various free radar websites or of course the netweather own radar :).

Bring back the fridge magnets i say ;-) they could of been changed at the drop of a hat!....I'm an avid radar follower of course,but the 'normal' man on the street that caught that earlier forecast may have ended up with a wet dinner shirt.Anyway enough of all that,they are a good forecast team there overall. Edited by sunnijim

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Had a lovely dry day today here, just waiting on that rain that's coming. Glad it's just rain do not like storms. Didn't see the TV forecast but it doesn't surprise me that the incoming rain wasn't in it. Seen similar happen lot's of times. Guess it was not expected by the models.

Edited by alexisj9

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Moving on, FAX chart for tomorrow

Posted Image

Light to moderate west/south westerly. 

Looks a fine day, just the chance of catching an odd shower.

Temperatures

Posted Image

Look reasonable, 21-24C so a decent day overall.

 

Sunday (subject to major change)

Going to do the GFS/ECM and the FAX for this to give the options on the table.

GFS

Posted Image

Bertha deepens and tracks up the Western coasts of England and Wales before pushing across Southern Scotland. For us there would be a band of steady rain and strong winds (gusts around 40-45mph). This clears to showers in the afternoon, fairly warm (21-23C)

 

ECM

Posted Image

Shallow wave pushing East/North East across the south of the UK, winds light to moderate but the risk of significant rainfall totals. Temperatures could get quite high before the rain arrives.

 

FAX

Posted Image

Wet and breezy at this point with rain pushing through from late morning. Rain looks heavy so again local flooding could be an issue. Temperatures would struggle to reach the twenties here.

 

As you can see, great uncertainty.

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Had a lovely dry day today here, just waiting on that rain that's coming. Glad it's just rain do not like storms. Didn't see the TV forecast but it doesn't surprise me that the incoming rain wasn't in it. Seen similar happen lot's of times. Guess it was not expected by the models.

Hi alexis, it's just steady rain here and no thunder, don't know if you'll be getting anything heaver towards the east though!

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Moving on, FAX chart for tomorrow

Posted Image

Light to moderate west/south westerly.

Looks a fine day, just the chance of catching an odd shower.

Temperatures

Posted Image

Look reasonable, 21-24C so a decent day overall.

Sunday (subject to major change)

Going to do the GFS/ECM and the FAX for this to give the options on the table.

GFS

Posted Image

Bertha deepens and tracks up the Western coasts of England and Wales before pushing across Southern Scotland. For us there would be a band of steady rain and strong winds (gusts around 40-45mph). This clears to showers in the afternoon, fairly warm (21-23C)

ECM

Posted Image

Shallow wave pushing East/North East across the south of the UK, winds light to moderate but the risk of significant rainfall totals. Temperatures could get quite high before the rain arrives.

FAX

Posted Image

Wet and breezy at this point with rain pushing through from late morning. Rain looks heavy so again local flooding could be an issue. Temperatures would struggle to reach the twenties here.

As you can see, great uncertainty.

Which track would you put your money on cap? Edited by ThunderBuddy21

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I really don't know Thunderbuddy21, these systems are a real problem to forecast, it really depends on if and then when the low deepens are to the track of the storm.

 

As an addendum this might interest a few regarding Sunday

Posted Image

 

Possible embedded storms within the frontal band and a possible squall line event. This is one to watch as this could bring torrential rain and very strong winds if something like this formed.

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Moving on, FAX chart for tomorrow

Posted Image

Light to moderate west/south westerly. 

Looks a fine day, just the chance of catching an odd shower.

Temperatures

Posted Image

Look reasonable, 21-24C so a decent day overall.

 

Sunday (subject to major change)

Going to do the GFS/ECM and the FAX for this to give the options on the table.

GFS

Posted Image

Bertha deepens and tracks up the Western coasts of England and Wales before pushing across Southern Scotland. For us there would be a band of steady rain and strong winds (gusts around 40-45mph). This clears to showers in the afternoon, fairly warm (21-23C)

 

ECM

Posted Image

Shallow wave pushing East/North East across the south of the UK, winds light to moderate but the risk of significant rainfall totals. Temperatures could get quite high before the rain arrives.

 

FAX

Posted Image

Wet and breezy at this point with rain pushing through from late morning. Rain looks heavy so again local flooding could be an issue. Temperatures would struggle to reach the twenties here.

 

As you can see, great uncertainty.

Excellent Post CS, huge uncertainty just 36 hours away and that's frontal rain.

Stuff from the tropics always throw spanners in the works when they get North of the mid latitudes :cc_confused: :cc_confused: :cc_confused:

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A surprising short sharp shower, obviously the dregs of this afternoon's weather from somewhere. Now some steady rain which is most welcome :)

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Would put my money on the fax chart track that captain shortwave shows, it's in between GFS and ECM tracks and drawn by the duty forecaster taking in operational and ensemble output from different models, so will do for me for now

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Monday

Posted Image

Fresh westerly flow

Sunshine and showers, possibly heavy and thundery

Temperatures - 19-22C

 

It's raining here in Benfleet now, pretty heavy and looks set in for the night.

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Rain falling here again. We've had 3 hefty showers today.... this is steady and mod to quite heavy rain... doesn't seem to be stopping right now.

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Yeah, really didn't need to water the garden plants earlier given the amount of rain moving through this evening! Shame it's not thundery.

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I wouldn't be surprised if we see an inch of rainfall tonight if this band doesn't fizzle out as it heads NE I've had 6.2mm in the last hour now

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I love night rain. ^_^

Night snow and thunder are pretty cool too! Raining steady for an hour here! 16.1c

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I love night rain. ^_^

 

Same, need to have a cool sleep for a change

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Yes, very heavy rain here also. We've had a few torrential down pours throughout the day, but now it's constant and been going on for a while.

Looking forward to going to bed soon, and listening to the rain beat against the window.

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Night snow and thunder are pretty cool too! Raining steady for an hour here! 16.1c

Lol ... night rain relaxes me and i fall asleep. Snow and thunder has me up all night, running outside to check and drinking beers ;).... just looked at the radar and woah ... thats a lot of rainfall heading our way =-O

Same, need to have a cool sleep for a change

Lol ... not sure how to respond to that ... ;)

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Lol ... night rain relaxes me and i fall asleep. Snow and thunder has me up all night, running outside to check and drinking beers ;).... just looked at the radar and woah ... thats a lot of rainfall heading our way =-OLol ... not sure how to respond to that ... ;)

It's listening to the rain falling at night that is relaxing! I have all my windows open! Is that rain on the radar heading towards you or the SE in general? We're supposed to have a cold snowy winter this year, lots of beer drinking to come! :laugh:

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Rain just reaching me here in Dover now.

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Up to 12mm in the last hour now, we will easy see an inch if this doesn't fizzle out, maybe even 1.5 inches :D

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Certainly a few more hours of rain to come tonight for many of us, another 20-30mm possible on Sunday, could be a wet august,

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