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Paul

South East England, East Anglia & Central Southern England Regional Weather Chat

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Dark clouds above Canterbury, rain shafts on the underside of this shower :D

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Another hot sunny day in London, I've lost count of the number of >25C days this summer.

I have only checked July and August so far but I make it 27 of the last 28 days since July 10th somewhere in our region. The only one that failed to reach 25c was August 3rd with a mere 24.5c.

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It makes you realise how big our small country actually is. I know plenty of people oop north who have had pretty horrendous summers, whilst we have had a glorious, long, hot summer.

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I'm absolutely petrified about the weather were going to get this weekend!

If the experts can't even pin it down then surely that's a sign its going to be bad!

I know we get remnants of hurricanes all the time but this seem to have a lot of media coverage

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It makes you realise how big our small country actually is. I know plenty of people oop north who have had pretty horrendous summers, whilst we have had a glorious, long, hot summer.

Spot on. A lovely summer here this year, yet last year where so many people elsewhere in the UK enjoyed sun and warmth for weeks on end, we got the dreaded northeasterlies and could have counted the number of evenings suitable for a barbecue on one hand. Must admit to being a bit confused about the forecast now with the MetO app for my area showing a mainly sunny day tomorrow but with a weather warning for heavy rain.

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I'm absolutely petrified about the weather were going to get this weekend!

If the experts can't even pin it down then surely that's a sign its going to be bad!

I know we get remnants of hurricanes all the time but this seem to have a lot of media coverage

It's more than likely that we will experience a spell of wet and windy weather, but it won't be too bad, just an issue of where it will hit as the interaction between Bertha and the Atlantic jet isn't very predictable.

Posted Image

Here is Bertha on Saturday, still riding the jet, it can do one of two things, either run along the jet and not develop, this would bring a scenario where only the south coast would be affected and will only have rain to contend with as the winds would remain fairly light. The other is that the storm manages to engage the colder air on the cooler side of the jetstream, this causes the low to deepen and as it does will curve more north eastwards and hence affect more of the UK. If this does occur then the timing of when this happens will also determine the path the system takes. Hence the large amount of uncertainty at even short notice.

 

In the end it's the time of the year more than anything else, at this time of year the leaves are out of the trees so it will take less in the way of wind to bring them down. To be honest it will end up just being a poor summers day which feels more like Autumn so I would say there is little to worry about.

 

As you do have a particular dislike of thunderstorms, then tomorrows weather will probably be of more concern but I will cover that in a while.

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I'm absolutely petrified about the weather were going to get this weekend! 

 

Seriously? Petrified over a bit of wind and rain  :cc_confused:

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Seriously? Petrified over a bit of wind and rain  :cc_confused:

Petrified that there may be some thunder in the mix!

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The sky to the east - with bubbling convective clouds orange at the bottom, black in the middle, then white, with a deep blue sky above - looks almost Close Encounters-esque.

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It makes you realise how big our small country actually is. I know plenty of people oop north who have had pretty horrendous summers, whilst we have had a glorious, long, hot summer.

 

I know we get remnants of hurricanes all the time but this seem to have a lot of media coverage

No we don't Thunderbuddy, that is simply not true. I think you need to take a more balanced view of the weather systems which affect the UK and stop reading and believing much of the media hype.

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right then tomorrow

Posted Image

 

Spot the mistake on the chart?

Anyway, we see a front coinciding with a developing low pressure system pushing northwards from France, along with front will be some very heavy rain as showers and thunderstorms break out over the near continent and spread north/north west to affect the south east of the UK. To the west of this front, showers will break out in the clearer if still unstable airmass.

Posted Image

Modest Cape in the west signifying the chance of thundery showers breaking out.

More cape in the mid levels further east during the morning, though this diminishes as the front clears during the mid/late afternoon. 

For the imports it will be a case of radar watching I think and we will know more tomorrow morning.

Posted Image

Temperatures look down on recent days due to the larger cloud amounts and rain. 20-24C looks to be reasonable here.

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No we don't Thunderbuddy, that is simply not true. I think you need to take a more balanced view of the weather systems which affect the UK and stop reading and believing much of the media hype.

It's truer to say that weather systems that include the warm, moist air of Atlantic hurricanes sometimes make their way across the Atlantic. The hurricanes do not make it over the Atlantic themselves. Not sure that that excludes the idea of "remnants".

 

Please wish any thunderstorms in your region my way ThunderBuddy. I appreciate that you dislike them, but I'm only too happy to watch them.

Edited by Crepuscular Ray
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The sky to the east - with bubbling convective clouds orange at the bottom, black in the middle, then white, with a deep blue sky above - looks almost Close Encounters-esque.

I see those clouds to my east too!

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After the amount of god damn storm threats we've had so far I best get some bloody snow later in the year to make up for this!

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Can I ask a stupid question

 

Where is tomorrows heavy rain going to come from?

 

The charts I've looked at, (GFS/NMM6/18) shows the closest Heavy rain to the SE to be in northern France heading NW into the north sea, not even clipping Kent, and the 18z GFS actually keeps it on the continent heading towards Belgium. Yet the MO still have a rain warning out for tomorrow  :cc_confused:

Edited by Essex Easterly

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It's truer to say that weather systems that include the warm, moist air of Atlantic hurricanes sometimes make their way across the Atlantic. The hurricanes do not make it over the Atlantic themselves. Not sure that that excludes the idea of "remnants".

 

Fair comment CR, but the possible Atlantic Low Pressure system possibly heading our way this weekend is not even a remnant of 'Bertha'. If it happens at all it will be an entirely different weather system spawned out in the Atlantic due to other factors. The medias obsession with Bertha is a red herring.

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Fair comment CR, but the possible Atlantic Low Pressure system possibly heading our way this weekend is not even a remnant of 'Bertha'. If it happens at all it will be an entirely different weather system spawned out in the Atlantic due to other factors. The medias obsession with Bertha is a red herring.

Ya wrong, so wrong, it will be remnants of Bertha, even the Meto quote it as such, unless you think their chief forecaster doesn't know what he's talking about. 

The remains of hurricane Bertha, over the western side of the Atlantic on Thursday morning, will come steadily towards the UK. The transition from a tropical to an extra-tropical featureis a particularly hard one to forecast with confidence, and computer models continue to differ in thelocation and intensity of the resulting depression, which is expected to pass over, or close to, the UKfrom early on Sunday. There is the potential for widespread rainfall totals of more than 50 mm and coastal gusts of over60 mph, along with large waves. However, the system may pass harmlessly to the south of the country.or spread heavy rain even further north, and the public are advised to keep up to date with warnings. 
Edited by jimbo36
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Ya wrong, so wrong, it will be remnants of Bertha, even the Meto quote it as such, unless you think their chief forecaster doesn't know what he's talking about. 

The remains of hurricane Bertha, over the western side of the Atlantic on Thursday morning, will come steadily towards the UK. The transition from a tropical to an extra-tropical featureis a particularly hard one to forecast with confidence, and computer models continue to differ in thelocation and intensity of the resulting depression, which is expected to pass over, or close to, the UKfrom early on Sunday. There is the potential for widespread rainfall totals of more than 50 mm and coastal gusts of over60 mph, along with large waves. However, the system may pass harmlessly to the south of the country.or spread heavy rain even further north, and the public are advised to keep up to date with warnings. 

Everyone is mentioning Bertha, met office, BBC, Weatheroutlook, weatheronline, weatherweb tv, oh and net weather! :laugh:

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Everyone is mentioning Bertha, met office, BBC, Weatheroutlook, weatheronline, weatherweb tv, oh and net weather! :laugh:

That's what I mean, everyones talking a bout it!!

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Morning all, a few showers around the region and some rain starting to push in from France, lets see what happens. There was some sunshine here but it has been blotted out by low cloud.

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Steady rain here for the last five minutes but in very calm conditions. It was quite humid out there first thing when I took the dawgs out - worked up a sweat even though the temp is only about 17C, and the elder doggie slowed down to a snail's pace in protest at the humidity.

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feels warmish already, we got sun and low cloud. (looks like there's been a bit of mist)

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Drove through some serious torrential rain on the way in to work. Normally I like driving in the rain, but this was qhite scary!

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