South East England, East Anglia & Central Southern England Regional Weather Chat

[Jason T]

Evening all, WOW What melter today was, Even warmer tomorrow. Could be some excellent T storm activity over the next couple of days. Humidity really punching in. This warm to hot spell looking to continue for a while based on current output, That's just based though never confirmed,However signals are very good. take care folks.

 

[Norfolk Sheep]

Lovely day here, not too hot, nice onshore breeze and plenty of cloud in the afternoon, humidity conspicuous by its absence. Perfect weather for a serious re-vamp of various parts of the garden. I do love a bit of slash and burn (the bonfire is about 15ft high)  

 

There will be no hatch battening here over the next couple of days, never known overcast and dry weather to cause flash flooding haha

[Captain Shortwave]

It's really pleasant outside near with a fairly stiff breeze, my room on the other hand has bottled up this plume and is serving me with temperatures of 29 degrees. Please drop a little bit

Edit - down to 27C now.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Captain Shortwave]

Right T-day (terrible pun I know)

Saturday

temperatures

Looks hot, the track of Fridays MCS looks to be through central England so there is every chance that Eastern areas could remain clear.

 

Dew points

Reaching 22C by the afternoon and carrying on into the evening.

 

Cape

Off the scale by late Afternoon

Same at the mid-levels

I think there is definitely a chance of something developing during Saturday that could be quite violent.

 

 

I've over-stewed my tea, by about half an hour   whoops, serves me right for spending to much time checking for storm potential.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Norfolk Sheep]

Good stuff Matt, we don't want that MCS's eastward edge any further east than the IOW as a minimum!

 

Stewed tea is the best tea hehe

[Mark wheeler]

Great posts captain both in here and the model forum I for one am greatful for explainations and charts of what is going on or what could happen in the future. I'm learning all the time over a couple of years thanks to posts like yours and others such as JP to name one. Good to see great humour too. Temps at 30 in my 2 year olds room tonight all windows open with a nice breeze blowing through at times.

[Djdazzle]

If the thunder activity backs west slightly and leaves the SE clear on Sat, surely with the higher uppers there is a chance of it being hotter than Friday?

[katemart]

The front which is moving north-east over the Channel is just hitting Southampton. All of a sudden the curtains have started sucking in and out of the open windows and the lights just flickered - lightning strike just to my south-west according to http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page_0=12

 

Still over 21C, but the pressure is falling rapidly and the humidity is 69% from 53% this afternoon.

[katemart]

There's a mess of intense showers just leaving Normandy which should be waking lots of people up along the central Southern coast in a couple of hours!

[Norfolk Sheep]

Don't laugh but I'm sitting here with a blanket on my lap and fluffy slippers on cos it's definitely not warm in here! This is a strange county....

[Jax]

fan on full blast here

[Jax]

too hot (did I mention that?)

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Don't laugh but I'm sitting here with a blanket on my lap and fluffy slippers on cos it's definitely not warm in here! This is a strange county....

Currently 16.1C outside near the North Norfolk coast.

 

So should go lower overnight

[Captain Shortwave]

This chart shows clearly how things are predicted to pan out. Note the shallow trough over the UK, the northern flank will be the main area of thundery rain, its position by now is north west England, we are effectively in the warm sector under some very unstable air. The steering winds are south to north. This means as well as getting potential surface based convection, we could also pick up some thunderstorms from central France as they track northwards. So a night time show cannot be ruled out either.

Temperatures again, the GFS has 29C, but it could get higher. Also Cape values are through the roof and the mid-level cape stays strong through the night, only dying down late on Sunday.

 

That's all from me. Goodnight.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[katemart]

Yeh, frequent rumbles now. Intense storm off the Needles .

[Buckster]

Estofex out

 

Level 2 for S-East

 

http://www.estofex.org/

[Jax]

too hot and now planning my exit for the evening.  goodnight all.

[saint]

Estofex out Level 2 for S-East http://www.estofex.org/

Good to see most of the region under a Level 1, let alone a level 2.

[scotteboi]

Good to see most of the region under a Level 1, let alone a level 2.

What's slightly concerning is that if you read the warning in its entirety, they were considering a level 3!!!!

[Norfolk Sheep]

Estofex out

 

Level 2 for S-East

 

http://www.estofex.org/

Ought to be grateful I'm in the general ts area!

[Daniel*]

Good to see most of the region under a Level 1, let alone a level 2.

Well it may have been upgraded to a level 3, which shows of the potential severity. I wouldn't underplay the possibilities."An alternative scenario is that not much convection will be surface-based, and the bulk of the activity will be elevated, reducing the overall severe threat. Because of this uncertainty, an level 3 was not issued at this time."^ Night

[katemart]

Cracking stuff over the Forest right now. Near continuous thunder!

[Storme]

Looks like we might see a little action tonight. My little Oregon alarm clock is showing rain. It's primitive but usually accurate.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Storme

[lightningsprite]

Amazing!!!! Still flashing away to my East .went down to the coast at Milford and watched the storm come in. .loads of cgs one hit between us and the marine cafe! Continuous lightning and thunder...best storm here for a long time...scary but wow!!!

[jojobut]

Can see frequent flashes here and hearing distant thunder in Burgess Hill