Storm and Convective Discussion 10th June Onwards

[Jonathan Lang 91]

It's already 23c here and large cumulus showing itself. Maybe a small chance today?

[Gordon Webb 892]

looks like the Eastern side of the country going to see the heaviest showers moving down to the SE later

 

at the moment I'm doing well to see any sunshine lots of cloud here and only 16 degrees

[Nick F 22,249]

In what has been a rather quiet period recently, chance of a few isolated storms popping up across central and eastern England and perhaps E Wales this afternoon, as flow becomes slightly cyclonic aloft and sea breeze convergence develops inland. Netweather storm forecast for today: 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

 

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2014-06-23 09:20:44

Valid: 23/06/2014 1000z to 24/06/2014 0600z

 

 

 

THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

Synopsis
Ridge of high pressure dominates just to the west of the British Isles over the east Atlantic, while an upper long-wave trough extends south across NE Europe. The upper flow will become slightly cyclonic towards the eastern side of the UK today, which combined with sea breeze convergence, may allow isolated heavy showers/storms to develop this afternoon as surface instability builds in warm/moist airmass.

... E WALES, MIDLANDS, YORKSHIRE, S and E ENGLAND ...

Increasingly cyclonic northwesterly flow towards Nern and Ern UK and associated cooling of mid-level temperatures will allow lapse rates to steepen sufficiently across central and eastern Britain, where moisture rich airmass will be, to allow 200-500 j/kg CAPE to develop across the above areas this afternoon, as temperatures reach the low to mid 20s deg C and dew points reach 15-16C. Sea breeze convergence zones are indicated to develop inland across central areas, which may allow sufficiently strong ascent of the warm/moist air to allow isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms to develop this afternoon/early evening, drifting south towards the south coast before fading late evening as diurnal heating wanes. Vertical shear will be fairly weak, so no severe weather is anticipated, however, convergence/uplift of quite moist air may bring locally torrential dowpours bringing the risk of flash-flooding. A few funnel clouds can't be ruled out with more buoyant updrafts under any cumulonimbus clouds that form along the breeze conergence boundaries.

Edited June 23, 2014 by Nick F

[Speedway Slider 186]

Sferics popping up around Derby/Notts....!! 12:45 ish, anyone confirm, and its direction going in?

[Harry 3,154]

Really quite active - nothing on radar half hour ago then boom off and away.

[Jonathan Lang 91]

Huge cumulus cloud surrounding here and very warm and humid.

[East_England_Stormchaser91 5,282]

Can see the anvils of those potent storms in Notts, drifting SE wards very slowly. This could result in some local flash flooding

[Dami 5,635]

Day started cloudy, that all disappeared, then from a few puffs of fine weather stuff, we have streets of huge cumulus cloud all around, building like their life depends on it. And it does, I would like a bit of thunder.

 

But sadly, I expect it will start to form here and head up north.

[Flash bang flash bang etc 5,224]

Should this no all be in a new thread - convective discussion June 23rd onwards?

Just tricky with 49 pages an' that

[Nick L 20,407]

Should this no all be in a new thread - convective discussion June 23rd onwards?Just tricky with 49 pages an' that

 

A new thread is indeed needed! It can be found here:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80703-storm-and-convective-discussion-23rd-june-onwards/