Storm and Convective Discussion 10th June Onwards

[Staffordshire]

Thanks guys I was looking for a late deal and these two seem to be cheaper options, anywhere else that could be recommended?

[Mokidugway]

If I was going in july id give turkey a shot , sea breezes and high mountains sometimes kick of some nice little storms !!....

Edited June 15, 2014 by Mokidugway

[Chris K]

Hmmmmm, died a death this thread.....

So, when's the next wave of stormy weather to breach the UK expected.....? Still awfully humid down here in Leicester, don't know what it's like anywhere else in the Country......?

 

Naturally it will quieten down to coincide with limited/no convective potential.

 

The risk of any thundery showers or storms looks like being relatively low for the foreseeable. There may be a chance mid week the more NE you are such as N Ireland, Scotland, NE England, however this still looks weak at present.

 

Ideally we want a cut off low to our SW and for the High to move East. However, the trend in the operational model runs at the moment is for the High to sit out West with a cooler flow eventually coming down from the NE. This could still provide something surface based if any showers get going, but it is too far out to class as reliable. It would also depend how close the High is to the UK. I think we will need to wait and see what it ends up doing later this coming week. 

Edited June 16, 2014 by Chris K

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think we'll have to wait quite a while for anything significant.  In summer setups with high pressure to the west, it is possible to get heavy thundery showers with hail in eastern parts of the country if we get an unstable north to north-westerly flow from the Arctic, aided by convergence zones close to the North Sea coasts- I always particularly remember this one:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/cfsr/1995/Rcfsr_1_1995082712.png

and sometimes if the high is quite strong, giving relatively warm and sunny conditions, but a weak disturbance moves south on its eastern flank it can generate heavy downpours with thunder, but for the most part, an east-Atlantic high means limited convective potential.  Northerlies are more often associated with significant convective potential in the spring months when the Arctic often still has pools of very cold air floating around in the upper layers of the atmosphere.

Edited June 15, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[andymusic]

showers breaking out over Wales now

[ancientsolar]

showers breaking out over Wales now

They're growing fast

[TonyH]

There were some more intense ones an hour ago, doubtful they will electrify.

Edited June 15, 2014 by TonyH

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just wondering if anyone could give me a real quick reply - where am I More likely to see thunderstorms in first 2 weeks of July - Corfu, or corsa bravo (NE Spain) No real idea if what it's like in Corfu?

Could get storms in both, but I'd say you are much more likely to get one in NE Spain. That area tends to actually be quite a hotspot for decent storms at any time of summer. I do love the storms out there. In France up from Bordeaux at the moment. Expecting some possible storms Thursday/Friday into the weekend

[andymusic]

very dark clouds - showers seem to be getting more organised - feels very heavy and oppressive - could do with a nice storm to lift things

[Evening thunder]

Thought I'd post a collection of video captures from Friday night along with the photos I posted on page 39, taken between Farnborough and Basingstoke. Sometimes 2 or 3 of the images below are from the same strike/flash as they produced various bolts across the sky or I couldn't decide which was best to upload..

 

Video to come soon hopefully when I find time, if this laptop which is playing up at times allows.

Edited June 15, 2014 by Evening thunder

[Speedway Slider]

Naturally it will quieten down to coincide with limited/no convective potential.

 

The risk of any thundery showers or storms looks like being relatively low for the foreseeable. There may be a chance mid week the more NE you are such as N Ireland, Scotland, NE England, however this still looks weak at present.

 

Ideally we want a cut off low to our SW and for the High to move East. However, the trend in the operational model runs at the moment is for the High to sit out West with a cooler flow eventually coming down from the NE. This could still provide something surface based if any showers get going, but it is too far out to class as reliable. It would also depend how close the High is to the UK. I think we will need to wait and see what it ends up doing later this coming week. 

Right, thanks for the info.....

            But......

Why, do I seem to have memories from childhood to early teens of what seems like regular summer storms, and probably a much higher ratio of night time storms, early hours, with loads of sheet lightning, long, rumbling thunder, and not always accompanied by rain... My Gran always used to say it was God ripening the corn...... perhaps I'm a tad early in the summer, perhaps it was nearer July onwards.... But I still think night storms were more often than day storms.... Oh, I've always lived in Leicester apart from a couple of summer long breaks in my teens working in Butlins Skegness, my other grand parents lived there........

Edited June 15, 2014 by Speedway Slider

[Lauren]

They definitely were more common in the 90's in terms of Spanish Plumes and MCS, my storm diaries from the time prove that for me. We used to have at least 2 or 3 every summer that were huge. I cannot remember the last time we had an MCS here. We may have just as many strikes from small cells, but significantly less MCS.

[Dale Hay]

Thought I'd post a collection of video captures from Friday night along with the photos I posted on page 39, taken between Farnborough and Basingstoke. Sometimes 2 or 3 of the images below are from the same strike/flash as they produced various bolts across the sky or I couldn't decide which was best to upload..

WOW.

[Speedway Slider]

Right, thanks for the info.....

            But......

Why, do I seem to have memories from childhood to early teens of what seems like regular summer storms, and probably a much higher ratio of night time storms, early hours, with loads of sheet lightning, long, rumbling thunder, and not always accompanied by rain... My Gran always used to say it was God ripening the corn...... perhaps I'm a tad early in the summer, perhaps it was nearer July onwards.... But I still think night storms were more often than day storms.... Oh, I've always lived in Leicester apart from a couple of summer long breaks in my teens working in Butlins Skegness, my other grand parents lived there........

Yes, agree, but i'm going back to the very late 60's and 70's, and I remember a few belting evening storms in the mid 80's, one specific awful evening for me was on a August Friday evening, say from 19:00 - 23:00, a blistering hot day, just finishing my "pools round" it had been building in the far far distance for a long while, almost ran round the last 20 houses, to get home, counted up and coupons dropped off, didn't go back home, would have been alone, eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeek! Went straight to my local and witnessed an absolute brute.... Lightning everywhere, I stood in the pub doorway at one stage (beer bravery) and saw a bolt right above me which split into lots of down and outward strands... Scared the living daylights out of me..... Straight back inside!!! Went on for 4 hours, there were quite a few buildings struck and barns.........

A real brute.....

 

They definitely were more common in the 90's in terms of Spanish Plumes and MCS, my storm diaries from the time prove that for me. We used to have at least 2 or 3 every summer that were huge. I cannot remember the last time we had an MCS here. We may have just as many strikes from small cells, but significantly less MCS.

[ReindeerMarmalade]

@Speedway Slider - I also remember frequent storms during the 80s and I don't think it's childhood misremembering either. We used to have frequent hot spells punctuated by belters of storms - we lived in quite a rural part of Gloucestershire at reasonable altitude so my childhood summer memories are of substations and pylons being struck and lots of power outages Those were the days...

[Chris K]

Right, thanks for the info.....

            But......

Why, do I seem to have memories from childhood to early teens of what seems like regular summer storms, and probably a much higher ratio of night time storms, early hours, with loads of sheet lightning, long, rumbling thunder, and not always accompanied by rain... My Gran always used to say it was God ripening the corn...... perhaps I'm a tad early in the summer, perhaps it was nearer July onwards.... But I still think night storms were more often than day storms.... Oh, I've always lived in Leicester apart from a couple of summer long breaks in my teens working in Butlins Skegness, my other grand parents lived there........

 

Ok well to be honest I do not have the scientific knowledge to really say for certain, however my assumption has always been the pattern of the Jet Stream as one major factor.

 

For example, in recent Summers it has been often flowing over or towards the South of the UK more often, with a tilt not favoured for the classic "spanish plume" storms to head on a favourable track to hit the UK. These storms would often form within a thundery low that developed from the heat of the day over Spain. The reason why those storms are often seen during the night, is because they form over the continent (typically the Bay of Biscay regions) during the afternoon, for them to then North and reach Southern UK by late evening.

 

The problem we are seeing, is that we have been relying on Low Pressure formed along the Jet Stream for it then to sit to our SW/W and draw up humid airmasses from the continent. Weather fronts then destabalise this as it pushes in and triggers storms along these boundaries. Nothing wrong with that, as they can develop some great storms. However, if the jet was more North of the UK, I think it would allow these thundery systems over the continent to properly head North now and again, rather than get pushed on a more NE track all the time.

Edited June 16, 2014 by Chris K

[Speedway Slider]

Ok well to be honest I do not have the scientific knowledge to really say for certain, however my assumption has always been the pattern of the Jet Stream as one major factor.

 

For example, in recent Summers it has been often flowing over or towards the South of the UK more often, with a tilt not favoured for the classic "spanish plume" storms to head on a favourable track to hit the UK. These storms would often form within a thundery low that developed from the heat of the day over Spain. The reason why those storms are often seen during the night, is because they form over the continent (typically the Bay of Biscay regions) during the afternoon, for them to then North and reach Southern UK by late evening.

 

The problem we are seeing, is that we have been relying on Low Pressure formed along the Jet Stream for it then to sit to our SW/W and draw up humid airmasses from the continent. Weather fronts then destabalise this as it pushes in and triggers storms along these boundaries. Nothing wrong with that, as they can develop some great storms. However, if the jet was more North of the UK, I think it would allow these thundery systems over the continent to properly head North now and again, rather than get pushed on a more NE track all the time.

Ahhh, so at best, we end up with "Kent Clippers" yes?

[MP-R]

Just wondering if anyone could give me a real quick reply - where am I More likely to see thunderstorms in first 2 weeks of July - Corfu, or corsa bravo (NE Spain)No real idea if what it's like in Corfu?

 

Definitely NE Spain. I think this area is one of the most thundery areas in Europe from a page I remember reading not too long ago. Every time I've been to the Costa Brava I've had 1-2 storms per holiday, even in mid summer. Their storm season really gets going in late August and runs through September and October though. The Spanish call it the 'Gota Fria' or 'cold drop' in English. Be prepared for iffy weather though in general if you go to NE Spain. Certainly the last time I went there for 10 days, only 2 days were actually sunny, the rest were often cloudy and humid with showers/storms around.

 

For reliable sunshine, Corfu is definitely better.

[Speedway Slider]

Is there a storm/lightning photo & video thread on this forum guys? I am on a smartphone, and navigation is a tad lumpy??? Link appreciated if thread exists...

[Speedway Slider]

Is there a storm/lightning photo & video thread on this forum guys? I am on a smartphone, and navigation is a tad lumpy??? Link appreciated if thread exists...

Ok, found them I think, damn smartphone, is there a forum app available?

Pics a difficult to look at on my phone...

[Speedway Slider]

Just looked at a few photos of convective action/thunder clouds/lightning, some corkers!!

What's the most thunderstorms anyone on here can recall in any single month, or consecutive 28 days (lunar month)

[Chris K]

Ahhh, so at best, we end up with "Kent Clippers" yes?

 

Sort of yes. Kent Clippers are usually associated with continental storms drifiting more NE than North. That is nothing new, but the lack of the bigger storms making it from Spain/France staying on a more Northerly track to the UK has been noticeable.

 

I find we rely more on frontal incursions from our W these days, particularly weather fronts that seem to want to race through earlier than peak daytime heating all too often...

 

If you get a stalling front or surface trough meeting a humid, unstable airmass however..that can get interesting if all the right factors are in place!

Edited June 16, 2014 by Chris K

[TonyH]

Just looked at a few photos of convective action/thunder clouds/lightning, some corkers!!

What's the most thunderstorms anyone on here can recall in any single month, or consecutive 28 days (lunar month)

June 1982 was a 'very thundery month with thunder being heard somewhere in the UK on at least 22 days' 

Many central and eastern places had over 10 days of thunder heard which is remarkable, the greatest being 14 days at Higham Ferrers, Northants, and Hinckley, Leicestershire.

(COL Bulletin June 1982)

https://www.colweather.org.uk/index.php

Edited June 16, 2014 by TonyH

[Andy Bown]

Mention on the BBC evening forecast of showers moving South from tomorrow evening into Wednesday morning with the chance of thunder. Is there potential for a situation similar to Friday evening/night? Although admittedly it won't be so hot tomorrow as Friday was.

[William Grimsley]

Mention on the BBC evening forecast of showers moving South from tomorrow evening into Wednesday morning with the chance of thunder. Is there potential for a situation similar to Friday evening/night? Although admittedly it won't be so hot tomorrow as Friday was.

Probably more this way than Friday Night as that was more Central S England rather than W/SW England.