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Storm and Convective Discussion 10th June Onwards


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GFS moved the best cape and LI well to the south to southern central areas towards Bristols and the Midlands. Looking like another miss here.

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GFS moved the best cape and LI well to the south to southern central areas towards Bristols and the Midlands. Looking like another miss here.

I wouldn't worry too much about what GFS says

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I wouldn't worry too much about what GFS says

Ditto - it's crap compared to the high-res models, and is effectively useless at such short time ranges. NMM looks good for Yorkshire and then into the Midlands and East Anglia.

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Granted the NMM looks good but this can also be totally wrong as well. Interestingly the blue area to the west of us is just where the brightest skies are. Dark area to the South east I can see. Just outside the window to the SE

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Karl83, on 13 Jun 2014 - 18:15, said:Karl83, on 13 Jun 2014 - 18:15, said:Karl83, on 13 Jun 2014 - 18:15, said:Karl83, on 13 Jun 2014 - 18:15, said:

I wouldn't worry too much about what GFS says

 

Both WRF 12z and the Met Office indicate the potential for night-time storms, W / SW of London.

 

 

Posted Image

 

post-17315-0-98447700-1402681111_thumb.p

Edited by poseidon
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Both WRF 12z and the Met Office indicate the potential for night-time storms, W / SW of London.

 

Posted Image

That's just indicating strong PVA, but there's certainly a small chance of something during the early hours, although if further north is to go by, I wouldn't be that enthusiastic. :laugh:
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Cooling down nicely here as a NE breeze picks up. Should be close to the convergence zone whether it will do the trick is another question.

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Looks very potent to the NE

Moderate shower has developed just to the east of here. Dark skies passed overhead but led to nothing. Brighter skies coming through now.

 

It's a weird direction to follow these developments from! Usually I have to look south or southeast, not north-west!

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Looks very potent to the NE

I can see that shower from here and it's getting darker every time i look at it,a real distinct orage underneath too.

 

Edit:600 post's whoo hoo!

Edited by allseasons-si
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Would be interesting if things did pass/develop to the west of London. Maybe the Egham storm shield is weaker when confronted from the north, or won't be expecting it especially at night. On the other hand I've probably just jinxed that possibility. 

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Would be interesting if things did pass/develop to the west of London. Maybe the Egham storm shield is weaker when confronted from the north, or won't be expecting it especially at night. On the other hand I've probably just jinxed that possibility.

Hee hee just let the storm sneak up on the shield when it least expects it.
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Ian Fergusson on his BBC Points West forecast said he wasn't expecting thundery activity in the showers as they moved SSE overnight, but went on to show his graphics which had their flashing lightning symbol in the heavier showers.

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I think the Central Midlands deserves a decent storm. I recorded no thunder crashes last month and before the settled period, which was very unlucky. Hoping for a few rumbles to make up tonight. The worst case would be if the thunderstorms went slightly too far to the East or West, I dont care if they hit an area miles away, just as long as they dont 'just' miss us.

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Ian Fergusson on his BBC Points West forecast said he wasn't expecting thundery activity in the showers as they moved SSE overnight, but went on to show his graphics which had their flashing lightning symbol in the heavier showers.

Full marks for consistency then!Very warm evening here, quite humid too with some instability showing itself in the form of some weakish AcCas and some Cu.
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The shower to the North of us has suddenly got much stronger. Going to take a miracle for anything to happen here though.

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I think the Central Midlands deserves a decent storm. I recorded no thunder crashes last month and before the settled period, which was very unlucky. Hoping for a few rumbles to make up tonight. The worst case would be if the thunderstorms went slightly too far to the East or West, I dont care if they hit an area miles away, just as long as they dont 'just' miss us.

Leeds deserves the most thunderstorms I'm afraid.

Edited by cheese
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