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Storm and Convective Discussion 10th June Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth

    Looks like I am just a little too west to get the worst of the weather which is good as I have a meeting with a lawnmower later this afternoon

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl

    Apologies, UKPP = UK post processed, a suite we have here at the Met Office, which means our model output from the Unified Model has additional algorithms and corrections applied to the raw data to better fit reality. At the shortest lead times (the next 6 hours) Nowcast data will be blended, then UKV (which is the Met Office high resolution model for the UK, with a resolution of 1.5km), up to Euro4 for the longest lead time (the Met Office 4km gridded model covering the Europe domain). So what I was referring to earlier was post processed output from our highest resolution model, regarding the potential for isolated storms in the south east, and possibly more significant convective activity in Lincolnshire tomorrow evening.Post processed data at short lead times (close to a weather event) for site specific forecasting, are generally regarded as the most reasonable prediction of what will occur. Broadscale considerations are still taken into account though, as sometimes UKPP looks too much like reality as opposed to forecast!

     

    Many thanks Mark.... :hi:

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)

    Primary factors are, I would say;

     

    1. Proximity of the lightning to the receiver 

    2. Power of the lightning (voltage/amps) and whether the bolt is positively or negatively charged (notwithstanding proximity, positive are normally FAR more powerful and the thunder reflecting that)

    3. Air temperature (not just a ground level but at different altitudes)

    4. Humidity (not just a ground level but at different altitudes)

    5. Windspeed and direction (not just a ground level but at different altitudes)

    6. Background noise (i.e traffic, wind, rain, aeroplanes (unlikely), etc)

    7. Topography - Thunder sounds very different on the coast (more like the gradual and smooth roar of a jet in my experience) compared to inland (more thumpy and intermittent) where it rebounds of hills, trees, buildings, etc

     

    When you say 'length' do you mean duration or length from end to end?

    Hi, thanks for input on this, I meant length as in time thunderclap is heard..

     

    I remember a storm from when I was a kid, ever so weird thunder.. for the first half hour of the storm, I didn't see any lightning, there wasn't any visible, that's no reflection to the fact I was hiding under the bed!!!!

    At first, I didn't think it actually was thunder... Basically it was a succession of single bangs! Literally a single muffled bang, no rolling/echoing/rumbling etc, and then 1 to 2 mins later another bang, gradually getting louder until my mum rescued me from under the bed and I did see lightning, very quick lightning, and virtually simultaneous bang, very loud bang! These close bangs lasted around 15 mins and they moved further away, and receded in loudness again, but still no rumbling...

    Thinking about it now, we had large playing fields to the back of the house, I mean it took 10 mins to walk to any of their edges and beyond that in one direction were cornfields, and on another side were water sanitation lakes... Just wondered if it was the open spaces that caused the strange thunder sound now.....

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    I'm going to take a wild guess and say that storms are going to develope in Lincolnshire, for a change! :laugh:

    Edited by lassie23
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Many thanks Mark.... :hi:

     

    re the comment this post included from Mark Canning, who it appears works in UK Met?

    this link shows the GFS idea of instability with the skew-t diagram for 18z today over Lincoln, along with all the 'clever bits' taken from that skew-t=CAPE, CAP etc etc

    http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=cskew;sess=27ba02bee611ad205d5f0499093ffc35

     

    It does support the idea from Mark last evening

     

    and of course as always take note of the forecast from Nick F

    Edited by johnholmes
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Here's the BBC'S graphics but we all know what they can do with those, sometimes.. ;)

    post-15177-0-90411200-1402653347_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth

    Beeb regional forecasts do have the east more favored for any heavy showers this evening which does seem to tie in with other forecasts so even though I may see some showers hopefully they won't be as intense as further East

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    Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes

    Lincolnshire has an invisible physical link with the near continent. The residents of Lincolnshire have known of this link for years but they don't want the rest of the UK knowing about it. This link is the reason why they get so many storms.

     

    yes ssh were hides before revealing.

     

    Serious note this could cause us to have quite deluge if it comes off.

     

    Noticed last night TORRO has said posted by smartie Interesting that it was possible rain wrapped from supercell.  Anybody who go out storm chasing did you find evidence  

     

    http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/103796-rfmi-tornado-damage-9-june-2014/

     

    Having examined high resolution radar imagery, photos and model output we think (at TORRO) that the supercells on this day may well have produced at least one tornado.

    However, radar imagery and model output suggests any strong ground circulation was likely wrapped in heavy precipitation.

    Therefore could members in Nottinghamshire and North Lincolnshire, SW of the Humber, please look out for reports of unusual damage.

    Likely track area extends from between Wolverhampton and Leicester towards Hull. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

    Extremely heavy and oppressive here today. 16°C coupled with 14°C dewpoint and 88% humidity all under a blanket of mid level cloud cover. Shame there's no energy for these conditions to tap into here today or else it would be erupting into storms.

    Edited by Convective
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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    Towering Cu now developing over N/S Wales and over the SW...

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Very quiet out there a sheet of cloud not looking good I'm afraid unless there's going to be a bit of forcing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Yellow warning for heavy thundery showers out from the met office

     

    Issued at: 1221 on Fri 13 Jun 2014

    Valid from: 1500 on Fri 13 Jun 2014

    Valid to: 2345 on Fri 13 Jun 2014

     

    Scattered heavy, thundery showers are likely to develop across parts of northern England this afternoon then extend down into the northeast Midlands this evening. The public should be aware of the risk of localised surface water flooding.

     

    Chief Forecaster's assessment

     

    The airmass across northern and eastern England will become increasingly unstable through today as a complex set of fronts moves down from the northwest and temporarily weakens the area of high pressure. As a result, scattered thundery showers are likely to develop over northern England and drift southwards. As is usual in such situations, rainfall amounts will vary considerably across the area. Some spots could possibly have over 20 mm of rain falling in less than an hour and very locally 30-40 mm in 3 hours, whilst many other places will miss the worst.

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1402614000&regionName=uk

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    Just like last time a LOW risk of heavy showers or storms!

     

    Great skies here atm, altoculumus, ac-cas and jelly fish :p

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

    Bring on anything now I've done my exams. I don't mind when and where. Any chance for me this week?

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

    Think you're too far SW Will, the Western extent seems to be around Bristol and down towards Hampshire.

     

    It would be utterly hilarious if something thundery turns up (at what has been short notice) over Wiltshire tonight a week after the much féted plume event which managed to avoid Wiltshire from all angles!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    Bring on anything now I've done my exams. I don't mind when and where. Any chance for me this week?

    No im afraid.

     

    I cannot see storms developing any further W than say the central Midlands.

     

    Im getting rather excited at the potential for my area this evening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

    Posted Image

     

    Storms maybe not going as far east as this suggests however some GFS outputs do support developments from the Midlands travelling to the east coast.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Think you're too far SW Will, the Western extent seems to be around Bristol and down towards Hampshire. It would be utterly hilarious if something thundery turns up (at what has been short notice) over Wiltshire tonight a week after the much féted plume event which managed to avoid Wiltshire from all angles!!

    Happens a lot here Andy. There could be a small chance tomorrow afternoon, certainly pockets of decent ml/sb cape about, with a weakening front straddling, there could be some hefty showers popping up.
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Some showers breaking out over NE'rn parts now, likely becoming more widespread and intensifying into late afternoon & evening. 

     

    post-9615-0-32891700-1402668835_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL

    Some showers breaking out over NE'rn parts now, likely becoming more widespread and intensifying into late afternoon & evening. 

     

    Posted Imageradar1.png

     

    Aye winds picked up further south and I can see some very large cumulus developing around here. Definitely some instability starting to appear. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Aye winds picked up further south and I can see some very large cumulus developing around here. Definitely some instability starting to appear. 

    Yeah, from no onwards is the time to start watching the radar for developments.

     

    Some pretty heavy showers over Scotland atm as well. 

     

    post-9615-0-98202100-1402669404_thumb.pn

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    Convection is really kicking off here now with towering cumulus. I would expect showers to break out more widely over the next couple of hrs.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Can't argue with GFS prediction in its positioning of wind convergence with showers developing there.

    post-5386-0-37432400-1402669730_thumb.pn

    5 min netweather rainfall radar.

    Edited by NL
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