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Paul

Storm and convective discussion 9th June

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I guess it's down to differentiating the words risk and guaranteed.

Plenty of mlcape and some localised high sbcape, cold ELT's to tap in to, good enough for large hail in the strongest storms- Kent and East Anglia in particular.

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After a lovely sunny morning we've just had an almighty downpour with a rumble of thunder mixed in. The sky is black to my west. Very humid here today and not much breeze.

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Despite limited lapse rates a quite strong storm has already managed to get going and sustain itself as we've seen (although of course not as strong as those on the continent).

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No storms here today thank you. I am mowing the lawn having it re turfed, Having a pool party, A barbeque and an open wedding in the garden as well....This Ruddy Reverse psychology better work today .....

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Some rumbles and heavy rain in Stoke. Think the main band is too far east though.

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 Difficult to forecast todays potential since there is still some differences in model output.

 

Looking at the Satelite pictures you can see a ribbon of vorticity (red) over the continent with warm air moving up from the south (green). There is also a small area of vorticity moving into the south of the UK which I think might destabilise things from the south west across to the north east this morning.  Further south is a vorticity lobe creating a marked cold front and low pressure, which may start to pull that ribbon over the continent more northwards and westward.

 

Posted Imagesat2pic.jpeg

 

This afternoon models somewhat disagree about where low level wind convergence will take place.

Posted Imagegfswind15.pngPosted Imagenmmwind15.png

 

Moisture pooling along the convergence zones could spark some storms. GFS would suggest from London up to Manchester with storms travelling north from this line.

NMM has a convergence zone todays the central south of the UK with storms which will travel north into the midlands during the evening. I think NMM is possibkly the odd one out today.

Posted Imagewind13.png

Posted Imagecloudprecip15.pngPosted Imagecloudprecip18.png

 

Mid level lapse rates are marginal across the UK with cloud tops not being as high as on the continent. Storms across the UK today are likely to be limited in strength.

Posted Imagelapserates15.png

 

Overnight lightning wizard charts initialized with GFS data suggest the possibility of an import with an over shooting top.

Posted Imagegfs_pvort2_eur27.png

 

This I think will be what the estofex forecaster will be looking at. Not every model agrees and a storm could just clip kent or trundle rigth across the south east.

Posted Imageclouprecip23.png

 

GFS looks keen to bring that ribbon of vorticity ove the continent towards the SE of the UK.

Posted Image500hpavorticity09.pngPosted Image500hpavprticity15.png

 

With the jet over the UK there is potential for any large storm (limited by lapse rates) to develop super cell characteristics. Low level convergence zones would pose a slight risk of a very weak funnel developing.

 

So there is a slight risk of storms across the UK today with limited potential for a lively import into the evening and overnight.

 

Thank you as ever BF!

 

My fingers are crossed for an import tonight, though I remain very much grounded on it.

 

The most pleasing chart there is the lightningwizard chart which smacks of, as you say, the possibility of a lively import.

 

I will be at Windsor races tonight, heading back in a taxi probably from 9:30pm...the best part of it is that the journey will be east facing pretty much the whole way :D

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Anyone seen estofex now. A Mesoscale Discussion has popped up!! Never seen that before. They must be majorly onto something special! If I lived in Kent I'd be on that shuttle to France right now !!

Feeling very humid and hot here now, and the sun is blazing!! ;)

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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Well, a great start to the day. 5 or 6 massive cracks of thunder and 15 minutes of the most intense tropical style rain we've had...since El Brumo a couple of years back. Unexpected bit very good.

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Anyone seen estofex now. A Mesoscale Discussion has popped up!! Never seen that before. They must be majorly onto something special! If I lived in Kent I'd be on that shuttle to France right now !!Feeling very humid and hot here now, and the sun is blazing!! ;)

 

Estofex to my knowledge have only started issuing MD's since this spring, and there have been a few (none affecting the UK to my knowledge)

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A new cell has just developed here just over the top of me, pretty sure that the nice looking storm near Burton is heading this way also! 

 

Where is Mr Supacell!? looks like a real nice storm close to Derby  :wink:

Edited by ChezWeather

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The most intense rain I think I have ever seen just then, I was outside and the clouds were BLACK, went very dark and notably humid just before the rain struck, a fair few strikes aswell but the rain was biblical

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Well, it was beautiful to just check the radar, and see that some of the cells developed over my mountains! While I was asleep -.- Looks like a very interesting setup ! :D 

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some interesting pictures coming out of that cell in the midlands - meso?

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well the warning has been updated by the MO and coves a lot of the east of england now and just about covers me, lets see what happens curently 20.1c 

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Stunning cloudscapes out of the office window here in Normanton West Yorks.  Some real instability up in those clouds right now.

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Hoping and praying that the active cell near Derby can survive to here, going for a drive if it does! 

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Nigel Bolton said on forum hope he don't mind posting his comments very interesting development

 

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/103738-convective-chat-week-starting-9th-june-2014/page__st__20

 

Can all eyes be focussed on the cell just west of Tamworth - please.

Has tornado written all over it.

Has developed its own mesocyclone, with strong updraft on southeastern side, and is exhausting to its northwest, this can be seen as area of moderate rain northwest of Brum.

Temp to southeast of storm is now 22C at Coventry with a dew point of 15C, so the air is very juicy, and this is the air feeding into the storm. Upper trough to west offering extra forcing.

This could generate a 'stepping tornado' as the storm moves northeastwards towards Lincs and Yorks, especially as the storm moves out over flatter terrain. We also have max solar radiation too, just two weeks from the summer solstice. However, the storm dynamics may get disturbed by crossing the southern Pennines.

This storm probably has the best potential to develop a strong tornado along its path since the Birmingham Tornado of 28th July 2005.

 

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Haze and skies clearing over London, right come on Diurnal. Get going. 

 

Posted Image

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Wow an actual storm over us. Unheard of. Booming thunder. Not massively active but ill take it.

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Has been a lot of thundery activity here for several hours with intermittent downpours, satellite signal just been lost which has not happened here since fitting a bigger dish three years ago.  :help:  :shok:  :)

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