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Paul

Storm and convective discussion 9th June

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Come on a strike around Ludlow just another 25 miles north and shrewsbury gets a storm.

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GFS suggesting a possible convergence line across London southwards this evening from around 18z. If this materialises, combining with relatively good CAPE there could be sparks. CZ gone by 21z however.

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Weve just had thunder again! Thats 3 days worth now...

$%$$%$% OFF

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I got awoken by thunder and lightning early this morning, quite surprising. The radar returns were juicy it no rain was falling, the ATD didn't pick anything up either.

Edited by Mapantz

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Come on a strike around Ludlow just another 25 miles north and shrewsbury gets a storm.

 

Looking at the radar loop its going to slide just east, and to be honest its lost a lot of the activity it had over Hereford. 

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It never ceases to amaze me how at 10am so many people can write their chances off for a storm today, some of you guys must be so good at convective forecasting, maybe you could share with us exactly which postcodes will see a storm today.

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Well several people in the office will need a change of pants now after we just had a lightning strike maybe 100yards away and proper gunshot loud thunder.

 

Scared the bejesus out of me! Awesome!

 

Practically night here now it's that dark!

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wow level 3 in europe  :bomb:.   Those poor cyclist in dauphine today not in level 3 but in 2 for them, I would think they will cancel.   I'm wondering what level 1 going to be like if it follows A46 like last night.  

 

Has there ever been level 3 called.

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That storm is moving closer to the Sheffield/Barnsley shield and is shedding its clouds in fear  :nonono:

Edited by Mark Griffin

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Pretty humid looking this morning, with lots of instability. A lot of muck from that French > Belgium storm. 

 

The usual distinct direction heading away from SE England. Any imports are going to come from the Bay of Biscay in the clear air, so looking at that area later.

 

 

post-15369-0-41928100-1402305997_thumb.j

 

 

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wow level 3 in europe  :bomb:.   Those poor cyclist in dauphine today not in level 3 but in 2 for them, I would think they will cancel.   I'm wondering what level 1 going to be like if it follows A46 like last night.   Has there ever been level 3 called.

There were several level 3's last Summer, quite a few in past years too. :)

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Well within 10 mins from.storms to nothing

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There were several level 3's last Summer, quite a few in past years too. :)

Level 3 for nothing happening, especially here.

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There were several level 3's last Summer, quite a few in past years too. :)

 

Skies clearing in London - haze thinning out.

 

Quite humid and temperatures already climbing nicely...likely to be a breeding ground I think rather than cashing in on the goods.

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There were several level 3's last Summer, quite a few in past years too. :)

 

cheers mapantz

 

Pretty humid looking this morning, with lots of instability. A lot of muck from that French > Belgium storm. 

 

The usual distinct direction heading away from SE England. Any imports are going to come from the Bay of Biscay in the clear air, so looking at that area later.

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

A46 Corridor looks like head my way  Humid, warm and dewpoint 10.4 here. 

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 Difficult to forecast todays potential since there is still some differences in model output.

 

Looking at the Satelite pictures you can see a ribbon of vorticity (red) over the continent with warm air moving up from the south (green). There is also a small area of vorticity moving into the south of the UK which I think might destabilise things from the south west across to the north east this morning.  Further south is a vorticity lobe creating a marked cold front and low pressure, which may start to pull that ribbon over the continent more northwards and westward.

 

 

This afternoon models somewhat disagree about where low level wind convergence will take place.

 

Moisture pooling along the convergence zones could spark some storms. GFS would suggest from London up to Manchester with storms travelling north from this line.

NMM has a convergence zone todays the central south of the UK with storms which will travel north into the midlands during the evening. I think NMM is possibkly the odd one out today.

 

Mid level lapse rates are marginal across the UK with cloud tops not being as high as on the continent. Storms across the UK today are likely to be limited in strength.

 

Overnight lightning wizard charts initialized with GFS data suggest the possibility of an import with an over shooting top.

 

This I think will be what the estofex forecaster will be looking at. Not every model agrees and a storm could just clip kent or trundle rigth across the south east.

 

GFS looks keen to bring that ribbon of vorticity ove the continent towards the SE of the UK.

 

With the jet over the UK there is potential for any large storm (limited by lapse rates) to develop super cell characteristics. Low level convergence zones would pose a slight risk of a very weak funnel developing.

 

So there is a slight risk of storms across the UK today with limited potential for a lively import into the evening and overnight.

 

 

 

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So a beast of a storm is heading towards Cannock and I'm not there. Sodding typical.

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Heavy rain with thunder and lightning here now..

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A46 Corridor looks like head my way  Humid, warm and dewpoint 10.4 here. 

Yep, looks that sort of way.

 

Dewpoint here is 12, and its definitely very warm and muggy already.

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