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Looking good for my holiday near Alicante week after next....most forecasts going for 30-35c... Also of note the plume from africa has caused 34c by 11am in palma mallorca...hot hot hot...only seven degrees above forecast....

Looking at weather data lookslike this heat peaked between 11am-12pm at 35c with wind from se/e which seems to have created extreme warming of the air in a fohn effect.... After 12 the wind direction changed and temp holding at 31c now with southerly wind coming from the sea instead of the hills

Edited by WillinGlossop

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Still looking like 30-35c daytime and 19-24c nightime whilst im in la campello/ alicante through next week... Might sneek a thunderstorm whilst im there too....

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going a bit further west then you lot and in to portugal! Weather looks hit and miss to be honest with that pesky low to the west of Portugal influencing the weather!

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Parents off to Portugal tomorrow for a week this is my prediction for them:

 

Headline: Quite hot and sunny at first, increasing chance of a few showers or thunderstorm over the weekend; cooler and unsettled Monday and Tuesday.
 
Recent weather in Southern Portugal has been hot and dry, no measurable rain since late May at Faro, and last Saturday Lisbon reached 36c. The average maximum in Lisbon is 25c and minimum 15c, whilst the highest recorded June temperature is 38c 100f, nights never get cooler than 10c. Nights can be uncomfortably warm and not fall below 21c.  An average June sees only 16mm rain so it is often a mostly dry and very warm month. Faro is even drier averaging just 5mm for the month, so you would be unlucky indeed to get a washout in June! 
 
Although the really hot air has moved away, it still looks pretty hot when you arrive Wednesday probably having reached above 27c, perhaps 30c. A heat low is over Iberia until at least the weekend, but storms most likely over the mainland (distant night lightning?), so coasts less likely to catch a shower, although it is possible. Plenty of sunshine Thursday to Saturday, the odd shower or storm is possible, very warm or hot, maxima around 26 to 28c. A cut off low that has been west of Portugal all this week, edges in closer to land over the weekend at it turns more unsettled, so although still some warm sunny spells, a greater chance of catching a shower or thunderstorm over the weekend, but you would still be unlucky to get a soaking. Temperatures still getting close to 27c (81f) although it may be quite windy at times. 
 
Into Monday and Tuesday there is more definite showers or longer spells of rain, perhaps thundery, about over Portugal, so June should have had it's first rains come Monday at the latest! It will also be cooler and cloudier as the wind veers more west to NW, but pleasant enough should you dodge the showers and get a sunny interval. Maxima Monday and Tuesday dependant on cloud amounts, and so if generally cloudy and showery it may not top 21c, while some sunny spells and it shoots up to 25c with ease.
 
Summary: Plenty of dry and very warm weather for your week in Portugal. Hottest and sunniest Wednesday to Saturday, slightly cooler with the chance of a shower or storm later in the weekend, but still with decent sunny spells. More distinctly cooler and cloudier with showers or rain at times quite likely on Monday and Tuesday.
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Parents off to Portugal tomorrow for a week this is my prediction for them:

 

Headline: Quite hot and sunny at first, increasing chance of a few showers or thunderstorm over the weekend; cooler and unsettled Monday and Tuesday.
 
Recent weather in Southern Portugal has been hot and dry, no measurable rain since late May at Faro, and last Saturday Lisbon reached 36c. The average maximum in Lisbon is 25c and minimum 15c, whilst the highest recorded June temperature is 38c 100f, nights never get cooler than 10c. Nights can be uncomfortably warm and not fall below 21c.  An average June sees only 16mm rain so it is often a mostly dry and very warm month. Faro is even drier averaging just 5mm for the month, so you would be unlucky indeed to get a washout in June! 
 
Although the really hot air has moved away, it still looks pretty hot when you arrive Wednesday probably having reached above 27c, perhaps 30c. A heat low is over Iberia until at least the weekend, but storms most likely over the mainland (distant night lightning?), so coasts less likely to catch a shower, although it is possible. Plenty of sunshine Thursday to Saturday, the odd shower or storm is possible, very warm or hot, maxima around 26 to 28c. A cut off low that has been west of Portugal all this week, edges in closer to land over the weekend at it turns more unsettled, so although still some warm sunny spells, a greater chance of catching a shower or thunderstorm over the weekend, but you would still be unlucky to get a soaking. Temperatures still getting close to 27c (81f) although it may be quite windy at times. 
 
Into Monday and Tuesday there is more definite showers or longer spells of rain, perhaps thundery, about over Portugal, so June should have had it's first rains come Monday at the latest! It will also be cooler and cloudier as the wind veers more west to NW, but pleasant enough should you dodge the showers and get a sunny interval. Maxima Monday and Tuesday dependant on cloud amounts, and so if generally cloudy and showery it may not top 21c, while some sunny spells and it shoots up to 25c with ease.
 
Summary: Plenty of dry and very warm weather for your week in Portugal. Hottest and sunniest Wednesday to Saturday, slightly cooler with the chance of a shower or storm later in the weekend, but still with decent sunny spells. More distinctly cooler and cloudier with showers or rain at times quite likely on Monday and Tuesday.

 

 

 

Thanks for this! Im going on friday for 9 days so this helped a lot. 

 

One thing i've been noticing in the last few days is the decreasing effect the low over Iberia is having on Portugal. Its journey eastwards appears to be shorter and shorter as the heat energy of North Africa and Southern Europe advances westwards slowly. 

 

For example, a few days ago it was projected for Saturday and Sunday to be cool and cloudy with outbreaks or rain, this has been moved 2 days back. 

Do you expect this trend continue, and what do you expect the weather to be like after Monday and Tuesday in Portugal? I'm near faro in southern Portugal by the way.

 

Thanks :)

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I will have another look at the situation later this week!

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Any thoughts on the weather for SW France this weekend?

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34c here yesterday.... Tram to benidorm is great.... Villa joiosa is lovely going there for dinner tonight...great paellas... Am typing this from the pool with a lunchtime g&t.... Its 32c today....

Ps festival started thursday in alicante so lots of spanish festivales!

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Any thoughts on the weather for SW France this weekend?

It should be lovely. Where exactly are you going?

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Going to Valencia on Sunday for 18 days... yehaaa. I just hope the weather is better than it was when we went last August. Torrential rain and wind for 5 days. According to the locals this was rather odd. Holding thumbs it is nice and hot. 

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Nice. I'm heading to javea on 21st June. Looks like the factor 30 will be required !!

Been going there for last 16 years!  Always wondered why this region rarely gets high pressure but clear skies with pressure as low as 1007. Is the sun really that much of an influence?

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Been going there for last 16 years!  Always wondered why this region rarely gets high pressure but clear skies with pressure as low as 1007. Is the sun really that much of an influence?

 

It's important to remember that these thermal or heat lows only affect the surface layers of the atmosphere - the air warmed by the sun rises and then diverges and spreads out and is normally too dry to form much cloud. Above this the air is descending as in a typical high pressure area. During the night the descending air can reach back down towards the surface again and the low declines.

For anyone really interested here is a good article from the journal Weather - The Iberian Peninsula thermal low - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/qj.01.189/pdf

Some very high temperatures in this area this week with Valencia airport reaching 42.2°C on the 26th, just 0.6 degrees below the August record. Carcaixent 25 miles to the south reached 43.4°C. Javea/Xabia recorded 36.2°C.

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A resurgence in Spanish heat this week with Granada Airport breaking their previous September maximum of 40.2°C set 07/09/1988 (records since 1972), with 40.4°C on the 1st, and then 41.4°C on the 2nd. This after setting their all-time maximum of 42.7°C on 17th July.

The heat has been widespread with Ourense far away in the northwest reaching 40.5°C just short of the September record of 41.1°C

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A bit puzzled at the moment , we're off to S.E Spain (Torrevieja) on friday(26th) for a week, looking at the synoptic charts (GFS,ECM,METO) it looks like HP will be close by, many weather sites state it will be mainly sunny and quite warm (25-28c), but the national forecasting office INM.ES  predicts cloud and rain from saturday through to monday ...any ideas what is likely to happen

Edited by Spurry

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A bit puzzled at the moment , we're off to S.E Spain (Torrevieja) on friday(26th) for a week, looking at the synoptic charts (GFS,ECM,METO) it looks like HP will be close by, many weather sites state it will be mainly sunny and quite warm (25-28c), but the national forecasting office INM.ES  predicts cloud and rain from saturday through to monday ...any ideas what is likely to happen

 

Temperatures shouldn't be a problem, should be a fair bit of warm/hot sunshine and warm at night, but numerous showers and storms.

From the GFS looks like the fronts and upper troughs that have passed over the UK in the past day make their way down to Spain and the western Mediterranean basin by Friday triggering storms. A bit quieter over the weekend still chance of showers because the high pressure builds further north over the Bay of Biscay and there is still some upper level troughing. Then Monday as the high slips over France and into central Europe, lower level warmth and moisture from north Africa increases the instability and enhances the shower/storm activity over the western Med especially the Balearics with a small lower level low forming.

Edited by Interitus

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Temperatures shouldn't be a problem, should be a fair bit of warm/hot sunshine and warm at night, but numerous showers and storms.

From the GFS looks like the fronts and upper troughs that have passed over the UK in the past day make their way down to Spain and the western Mediterranean basin by Friday triggering storms. A bit quieter over the weekend still chance of showers because the high pressure builds further north over the Bay of Biscay and there is still some upper level troughing. Then Monday as the high slips over France and into central Europe, lower level warmth and moisture from north Africa increases the instability and enhances the shower/storm activity over the western Med especially the Balearics with a small lower level low forming.

Gracias

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Temperatures shouldn't be a problem, should be a fair bit of warm/hot sunshine and warm at night, but numerous showers and storms.

From the GFS looks like the fronts and upper troughs that have passed over the UK in the past day make their way down to Spain and the western Mediterranean basin by Friday triggering storms. A bit quieter over the weekend still chance of showers because the high pressure builds further north over the Bay of Biscay and there is still some upper level troughing. Then Monday as the high slips over France and into central Europe, lower level warmth and moisture from north Africa increases the instability and enhances the shower/storm activity over the western Med especially the Balearics with a small lower level low forming.

I go out to Majorca Tuesday, its looking wet and thundery :( Where are the charts for the med if any exist ??

 

EDIT Found the charts :)

Edited by Biggin

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I go out to Majorca Tuesday, its looking wet and thundery :( Where are the charts for the med if any exist ??

 

EDIT Found the charts :)

 

Good. Like when we get summer stormy weather, it's tricky to be precise exactly when and where they will be but the forecasts are looking like some could be quite beefy, potentially flight affecting but hope not  :)

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