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A.J

Convective/Storm Discussion for 06/0614 - 07-06-14

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I'll defer to those with better knowledge, but it has shown no supercellular properties that I could see.

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In all honesty, that storm is travelling towards London. 

Yep anywhere between the square, Reading- Bournemouth-Brighton-London...

That storm ain't going to survive the Channel crossing, in my books, as I would imagine its well rooted into the boundary layer now. I've highlighted the area I'm watching most in red. I may be wrong however, but that's how I see it...

 

However they are elevated, so I dont see why the surface (the channel) should affect them that much? 

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Yep anywhere between the square, Reading- Bournemouth-Brighton-London...

However they are elevated, so I dont see why the surface (the channel) should affect them that much? 

Hoping the warm air its riding feeds it enough energy to survive the crossing 

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It would appear that more storms are developing behind the line headed towards the Channel and these are now becoming electrified. Bodes well for overnight, so long as there is not too much murk about in the morning. Sadly, we have all seen this in the past but, ever the optimist.......

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Yep anywhere between the square, Reading- Bournemouth-Brighton-London...

However they are elevated, so I dont see why the surface (the channel) should affect them that much? 

 

That's where I'm stuck, I can't decide whether its likely that its well routed in to the lower atmosphere yet or not.

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while you are awaiting for a storm i am playing back a classic nasty storm somewhere in the usa on the ustream link below ...get you in the mood :)

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Another storm seems to be developing just south of Rennes.

Hmmmm there seems to be a downdraft from the storms to the north, which then behind displaces the air and forces it upwards (updraft) forming these storms?

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That storm ain't going to survive the Channel crossing, in my books, as I would imagine its well rooted into the boundary layer now. I've highlighted the area I'm watching most in red. I may be wrong however, but that's how I see it...

 

 

I guess we will soon see. Live lightning site is great in this regard  :good:

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There's definitely three distinct storms in Northern France going on at the moment. The most intense looks like the one around the Fougeres area and heading NE.

Edited by Simon_R

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Pretty sure they are elevated, so a channel crossing shouldn't be a problem.

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Gonna be a good while until anything gets to the UK & with no signs of anything firing further North, I'll take my leave. Hope things improve for you all-nighters!

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I'll defer to those with better knowledge, but it has shown no supercellular properties that I could see.

 

I think if there had been a supercell, the boys at Keraunos would have mentioned it - just clusters of single cells from what I read.

 

http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/fil-infos/2014/juin/orage-6-juin-2014-aquitaine-poitou-normandie-pays-de-loire-grele-supercellules-suivi.html

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[email protected] for the warm welcome here :)

The outflow of the initial Nantes supercells seems to have created a very promising outflow boundary along which new cells are being triggered off northwards. This is basically like a mini cold front going north and is clearly visible on SAT24 Infrared. The boundary is the curved top of the white now mushroom shaped ex Nantes storms.(If someone from the Forum could post a grab off the SAT24 site would be much appreciated, have to get into downloading pics first)  

Shows how much instability is present, and also can speed up matters: If further cold outflow from the french storms makes it to the south coast and shifts under the pre frontal unstable airmass in the UK things may become interesting soon because we wont have to wait for the actual storms to arrive across the channel.

 

 

Ralph

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Funny how exactly the same thing happened on this date last year. Portsmouth and IOW being slammed by a small import ! And I witnessed it !

I remember that well, took me by complete surprise! 

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The break between the storm is heading directly towards the Midlands, why have I got a bad feeling :/

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More strikes showing up along the French coast now away from the main cluster of storms

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[email protected] for the warm welcome here :)

The outflow of the initial Nantes supercells seems to have created a very promising outflow boundary along which new cells are being triggered off northwards. This is basically like a mini cold front going north and is clearly visible on SAT24 Infrared. The boundary is the curved top of the white now mushroom shaped ex Nantes storms.(If someone from the Forum could post a grab off the SAT24 site would be much appreciated, have to get into downloading pics first)  

Shows how much instability is present, and also can speed up matters: If further cold outflow from the french storms makes it to the south coast and shifts under the pre frontal unstable airmass in the UK things may become interesting soon because we wont have to wait for the actual storms to arrive across the channel.

 

 

Ralph

Ralph your knowledge in your first 2 posts is what this thread is looking for, great analysis and keep them coming!!

Edited by Panayiotis

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Fried frelectrucuted frogs for . freak..fast in France :D

Freck off :rofl:

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The storm off the coast of St Malo is definitely heading for Jersey!

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