Convective/Storm Discussion for 06/0614 - 07-06-14

[Mokidugway]

100 cubic kilometers of chalk to fill the channel in , then we will get the meaty storms, might cost a bit though !!...

[saint]

Good to see C/S/E England included in the Estofex Level 1. That's always a good sign.

[Mesoscale]

Look how close that level 3 is!!!! 50 miles north and west and we would be under it!! WHY CHANNEL, WHY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Level 1 is better than nought though,

[Stormeh]

Loving the Paris storm, some great pics going about.

[saint]

The Level 2 is extremely close to Kent.... Cant rule anything out. 

[Mesoscale]

Soo much lightning in that Paris storm!http://www.earthcam.com/france/paris/?cam=eiffeltower_hd

[Chris101]

Tonight??If it's any indication, I've seen 4 stag beetles plus copious other insects, a honeybee in the house, just killed the biggest mosquito I've ever seen and it's very warm.

I couldn't believe it when she said it, but yes in the early hours of Monday morning, she had the lightning symbol over the central South coast and then had them breaking out over the Midlands later in the day.

[Harry]

If you read the text guys, they were considering a level 2 for us also...tomorrow looking far more interesting than perhaps we thought!

[Gordon Webb]

estofex important bit for uk

 

... England ...Models show that somewhat warmer, moist airmass should advect over E England as the wave in the frontal boundary propagates towards northwest. However, edge of the EML plume should remain to the east, so that MLCAPE values will stay on the order of hundreds of J/kg. As strong flow ovespreads the region, over 25 m/s of DLS is forecast. All models agree on initiation along the lifting warm wave of the boundary. There will be a potential for isolated supercell development, which would be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. However, lack of steep mid-level lapse rates may limit the hail threat, so that a high-end Lvl 1 instead of Lvl 2 is issued.

 

edit - just saw harry beat me to it and did a better job of it as well

Edited June 8, 2014 by Gordon Webb

[stainesbloke]

I'll believe it when I see it lol...

[paul m]

Not jealous of those storms in Paris whatsoever.... HONEST

[ChezWeather]

Was about to mention, England under a "high end level 1" by ESTOFEX

 

Still unbelievably envious of anyone in the level 3 zone! 

[davehsug]

The frequency of the lightning on the Eifel cam shows there is more than the strike detector is picking up.

[Mesoscale]

Check this out!!!http://static.meteo-paris.com/videos/webcam-playlist.php

[MartinD]

Paris is getting hammered... stunning lightning, just wished they had a webcam on the top of the Eiffel tower.

 

http://www.earthcam.com/france/paris/?cam=eiffeltower_hd

[Eskimo]

Very much high level stuff in Paris. Still incredible. 

[paul m]

Check this out!!!http://static.meteo-paris.com/videos/webcam-playlist.php

Put some Benny Hill music to it and it will be just that bit better

[Gordon Webb]

the warning from estofex is mainly for

 

A level 1 was issued for England mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.

 

still looking like more eastern and se areas for the real fun and games with more scattered and probably not as intense elsewhere

[Mokidugway]

Was about to mention, England under a "high end level 1" by ESTOFEX Still unbelievably envious of anyone in the level 3 zone!

but north west is under a drizzle alert !!! be lucky to get a wet fart out of this set up !!....

[Chris101]

the warning from estofex is mainly for

 

A level 1 was issued for England mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.

 

still looking like more eastern and se areas for the real fun and games with more scattered and probably not as intense elsewhere

They mention supercell development, and that wont be anything to do with an mcs in the SE

[Gael_Force]

No, this is a french forum.  http://forums.infoclimat.fr/topic/84388-suivi-du-temps-en-ile-de-france/page-22

 

This is an exceptional event, hence why we are all interested.

 

Capture.PNG

 

Does anyone have the cloud top temps satellite link that loops in a similar manner to this link http://neige.meteociel.fr/satellite/anim_ir.gif

 

No idea where I left it..

 

Here's a link for cloud temp, height and pressure.

 

http://www.nwcsaf.org/HD/MainNS.jsp

[davehsug]

The odd flash picked up in Bruges now

 

http://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/belgique/flandres/bruges/markt.html

[Mapantz]

It looks interesting for parts of eastern England tomorrow, quite possibly the best chance in the last three days- low chance of supercell development too, where storms do occur of course, a chance nonetheless..

[lorenzo]

Here's a link for cloud temp, height and pressure.

 

http://www.nwcsaf.org/HD/MainNS.jsp

 Thank you Gael Force bookmarked that, found the one I was after in old posts http://www.meteo-mc.fr/satellite-ir-anime-eu.php

 

Here's is another to save http://www.nwcsaf.org/NRT_images/ImaGIF_CTTH2__ORIG_RES_LOOP.html

 

Massive heights on these.

[Gordon Webb]

I know i prattle on about my dislike of this type of weather but I will wish all in the east the best of luck of catching a storm tomorrow