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Convective/Storm Discussion for 06/0614 - 07-06-14

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Strikes picked up near Derby 

 

that's the one that missed me just about 45 mins ago

Moderate rain here currently. No thunder but wasn't expecting much today.

 

no that band of rain is mostly just that

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"bet it'll be simple rain by then if it gets this far" Gordon webb, My glass is always half full!...... we all know here what your is :p

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MetOffice precip chart showing thunderstorms heading into the southeast corner later tonight. 

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Some grey cloud building here now.

 

Amazing the amount of cloud types in the sky. AcCas, cirrus, cumulus to name just a few.

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Cmon Mother nature I love you really ......

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Thundery shower approaching here almost dead on schedule as well. Will it survive the Sheffield shield considering it started it's journey a long way away. Odds 9 to 1 against... :)

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Thundery shower approaching here almost dead on schedule as well. Will it survive the Sheffield shield considering it started it's journey a long way away. Odds 9 to 1 against... :)

seems to be dying out on the 5min radar...

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MetOffice precip chart showing thunderstorms heading into the southeast corner later tonight. 

 

I was looking at the Met Office precipitation charts, and the Euro4, which both show precipitation heading north from the continent. Both models appear to differ on the positioning though. However, is there anything to say this will be thundery. I know the BBC forecasts have been saying it will be a sticky, humid night and a humid day tomorrow but no mention of thunder. 

 

Does anyone have access to MLCAPE charts to see if there is any instability at elevated levels to sustain elevated activity?

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Thundery shower approaching here almost dead on schedule as well. Will it survive the Sheffield shield considering it started it's journey a long way away. Odds 9 to 1 against... :)

The thundery core will pass by to our east I think PIT. Looks like I'm going to get hit by the little shower ahead of it - it's gone very grey here and the win has picked up. Hopefully if the big shower keeps its electrical activity I'll see some lightning as it passes by.

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I was looking at the Met Office precipitation charts, and the Euro4, which both show precipitation heading north from the continent. Both models appear to differ on the positioning though. However, is there anything to say this will be thundery. I know the BBC forecasts have been saying it will be a sticky, humid night and a humid day tomorrow but no mention of thunder. 

 

Does anyone have access to MLCAPE charts to see if there is any instability at elevated levels to sustain elevated activity?

The GFS shows weak values from the early hours of tomorrow, these build during the day (probably home grown showers). Monday night shows some serious cape values pushing up the north sea and clipping eastern coasts so a definite chance of something Monday night. Especially given the explosive potential over France tomorrow.

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Producing some rumbles in Cardiff with lightning. Quite loud. Spoilt this week! post-3647-0-56981200-1402240547_thumb.jp

Edited by Louisa

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I was looking at the Met Office precipitation charts, and the Euro4, which both show precipitation heading north from the continent. Both models appear to differ on the positioning though. However, is there anything to say this will be thundery. I know the BBC forecasts have been saying it will be a sticky, humid night and a humid day tomorrow but no mention of thunder. 

 

Does anyone have access to MLCAPE charts to see if there is any instability at elevated levels to sustain elevated activity?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=6&map=10

 

Sorry CAPE LI, It's CAPE ML You want

Edited by Dancerwithwings

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That rain almost here and sky looks threatening, however I do not think the energy is there to see anything more than the odd rumble of thunder, if even that.

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Nothing more than a heavy shower here in the end.Two quick photos I took before it rained.post-17017-0-45040900-1402240390_thumb.jpost-17017-0-99699900-1402240492_thumb.j

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Excuse the angle of the picture ha. Not sure how to rotate on iPad!

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On and off heavy showers but still no T&L.

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I was looking at the Met Office precipitation charts, and the Euro4, which both show precipitation heading north from the continent. Both models appear to differ on the positioning though. However, is there anything to say this will be thundery. I know the BBC forecasts have been saying it will be a sticky, humid night and a humid day tomorrow but no mention of thunder.  Does anyone have access to MLCAPE charts to see if there is any instability at elevated levels to sustain elevated activity?

From what I can work out its only the UKMO suggesting this. The MetO precip forecast going for some quite intense, convective outbreaks across the SE quadrant (primarily London, Home Counties and EA).Not feeling humid today, but it is very warm...I reckon about 25C around here today, would be surprised if not the warmest day if the year

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The band heading up from the southwest just arrived here, very loud thunder as a result of CC lighting, torrential rain, now heading north up the A370 so you lads in Bristol/Thornbury may be in for a shout in about 20mins or so! :-) sorry no photos even though have iOS 7 my phone isn't waterproof! :-)

Edited by smiles

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Thunder here in Pontypridd

Lucky you, now send it over my valley ! 

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