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Convective/Storm Discussion for 06/0614 - 07-06-14


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

One thing to remember about T Skews is that it shows the prsent conditions it doesn't mean that stable conditions or unstable won't move away later.

It is a forecast also, a guideline. Definitely more accurate and less changeable the closer to the actual time the forecast is.
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Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire

Webcam picture of the cell just going west of Münster, seems to be chucking out lots of lightning! It looks a beauty! What I would give to have something like this here. :)

 

Posted Image 

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Posted
  • Location: Chester
  • Weather Preferences: the stormier the better...
  • Location: Chester

Feeling a lot warmer and more humid out there today. Just need a few more select ingredients!!

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby bridge, near halifax, W Yorks 120m
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny (hate hot), severe thunderstorms, heavy snow, extreme cold
  • Location: Sowerby bridge, near halifax, W Yorks 120m

Gone from clear to this in 30 mins

 

Posted Image

Edited by Jonathan Lang
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Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

Convection has got going here...but nowhere near organised as yet. We might end up as one of the spawning locations of showers and storms for those to enjoy further east. Seems to be a role the West Midlands has been given in recent summers!

 

Still, only 12pm, the days are long and the sun is strong so we'll see.

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Posted
  • Location: Templeglantine, west County Limerick, Ireland
  • Location: Templeglantine, west County Limerick, Ireland

Haven't heard any thunder yet but very heavy showers here in west limerick - come on!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby bridge, near halifax, W Yorks 120m
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny (hate hot), severe thunderstorms, heavy snow, extreme cold
  • Location: Sowerby bridge, near halifax, W Yorks 120m

Something approaching the south west

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Posted
  • Location: East Kilbride (Glasgow)
  • Location: East Kilbride (Glasgow)

Some amount of lightning that storm is kicking out on the Holland Germany border , imagine being under that baby.

Hope to see something here today to make up for the dissapointment yesterday , early signs are good.  :)

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Posted
  • Location: Constance, Germany or Mytchett, Surrey
  • Location: Constance, Germany or Mytchett, Surrey

@ The PIT:

I fully agree with you, but it is undoubtedly the most reliable instrument for nowcasting and short term forecast, these arent computer generated data sets but actual evaluation of the conditions prevailing  in the upper atmosphere. Had the Herstmonceux ascent taken place at12z yesterday we could have called it a day in the SE right away and gone swimming instead :-) Todays ascent (shold it succeed,grin) should give us a good hint of things to come tonight and into the early hours of tomorrow morning.

 

@ Harps and Mapantz: 

Its gonna be a tight one for anything to hit land IMO, would be nice but unfortunately with the current charts the pressure setups arent going to change much till tomorrow night, both the high and low pressure areas stay put. Just a quick peek at the Theta E and LI charts show a pronounced stabilization westwards across the channel from the continent to the British isles with some instability scraping the far SE in the hours tonight.

The influx of increasingly unstable airmasses to France, BeNeLux, northern Germany as time proceeds into Monday night (LI of -5), increasing windspeeds aloft and good shear make me ponder somewhat as to the setup on the continent: It seems to boil down to a very volatile situation there, with good chances for violent Supercell formation, major hail and thepossibility of tornadoes. Unfortunately this coincides with the end of the long weekend (Pentecost), lots of people will be travelling back home in densely populated areas, hmm, something to keep an eye on maybe...

 

Would love to post some charts to illustrate, but just cant seem to get it working

 

 

Ralph

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

There's some impressive numbers on there..

post-15177-0-06086500-1402226619_thumb.p

Attachments not working either! :(

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Generalelectrix agree great tool if you can read them for now casting and can also be a good forecasting tool if the conditions stay the same i.e no injection of upper cold air for example. Anyway lets see what happens.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

Sky to my SW at 12:30 - certainly a lot of clouds bubbling up. It's very warm, been mowing the extremely long lawn this morning and the sweat is not going anywhere to put it politely....

EDIT my attachments aren't working either - the picture is f some darker based cumulus clouds.

post-118-0-82542000-1402226939_thumb.jpg

Edited by Darren Bown
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Cells now popping up over Wales and the SW which is all moving NE....I wonder if we will see an intensification of the showers over the channel? Its something im keeping my eye on!

 

Is there a server error for attached images? 

post-17320-0-54053200-1402227217_thumb.p

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

Sat 24 does show a lot of cloud bubbling up across the north and west of the country. I have fingers and toes crossed again!

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Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France

Instability over Brest Peninsula NW France is generating some storms now - seems to be on a trajectory for SW England

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Posted
  • Location: Constance, Germany or Mytchett, Surrey
  • Location: Constance, Germany or Mytchett, Surrey

Agreed @ The PIT.  lets have a peek at the Hers... sounding when it arrives, we will at least see a tendency then.

 

Münster (Monster? :spiteful: ) storm not bad, Vee Haf red alert:

 

http://www.unwetterzentrale.de/uwz/index.html

 

Ralph

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

There is a lot of exciting weather forecast for the near continent this afternoon and evening - below is a link to the European radars for following the storms as they develop.

 

http://www.skyclear.ro/radar.html#Radar%20meteorologici%20Europei

 

current storm in Germany.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Cells now popping up over Wales and the SW which is all moving NE....I wonder if we will see an intensification of the showers over the channel? Its something im keeping my eye on! Is there a server error for attached images?

Yup. I uploaded images to the gallery too, same issue- hopefully it'll get fixed soon.
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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

You can clearly see the lack of moisture across the SE corner today on Sat24, elsewhere (apart from Ireland) its going to be tough to get some convergence to push things upward.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

HOLY SMOKES! A thunderstorm coming this way! WOW! :D

I did see some altocumulus castellanus cloud when I was out SSW of Exmouth.

Edited by William Grimsley
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