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Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

Jane Louise
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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Yes it does look nice and juicy at the moment. No need for too much detail yet though :)

Just a bit more W please!

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vladthemert Enthusiast

vladthemert

Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes
Posted

Yes it does look nice and juicy at the moment. No need for too much detail yet though :)

 

could be good for east ?  Air is :cold:  here and has been for days.   Sorry no posting been ill still suffering abit been examined by docs :bad: to get to root :sorry:

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Such a familiar sight..

post-15177-0-61507900-1401616143_thumb.g

I don't think I have seen this setup so many times before?! I'm pretty sure these synoptics will carry on through the height of Summer

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Tom Jarvis Community Regular

Tom Jarvis

Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
Posted (edited)

Heard reports that there was a small tornado in kent today

Here is a pic of it on Facebook

post-18254-0-85300600-1401647677_thumb.j

Edited by Tom Jarvis
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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted

GFS I believe is now forecasting Friday for a plume into southern eastern England in the evening and overnight, no homegrown and Saturday homegrown storms over south east and east midlands with a plume to the east of England over the channel and up the north sea. Oh how it keeps changing :) could go any way at this point.

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Some mega storm porn cropping up on the latest outputs, CAPE over the East Midlands and East Anglia in excess of 2000-2500j/kg!!!!!!!

15c+ uppers and temps of 27-28c.

Things could get very interesting by the end of this week! ;)

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Some mega storm porn cropping up on the latest outputs, CAPE over the East Midlands and East Anglia in excess of 2000-2500j/kg!!!!!!!15c+ uppers and temps of 27-28c.Things could get very interesting by the end of this week! ;)

Just need to keep inching the pattern westward. The goal for me is getting the 16C isotherm into the UK on Saturday. Lets see what happens but keeping as much of the UK to the east of the cold front will be key.

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Just need to keep inching the pattern westward. The goal for me is getting the 16C isotherm into the UK on Saturday. Lets see what happens but keeping as much of the UK to the east of the cold front will be key.

I really hope we can. So far so good at the moment :D Very interesting model watching this week that's for sure!
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ChezWeather Experienced

ChezWeather

Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
Posted

The only problem is, is that the plume looks like it's heading a little bit too far east. For eastern areas it looks like it's going to be a very good day, but us westeners (suprise, suprise) will get the more mediocre storms and the drizzly rain.

Plenty of time for change yet, i wouldn't worry until at least Friday ;) 

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

I'm pretty sure that the thundery breakdown we had recently was first predicted, in FI, as an event for the east. Then it got shunted westwards putting me right in the firing line. If I can get a thunderstorm from an south-easterly event, then I'm sure anyone in the rest of England can! 

 

Hopefully we'll see this plume get shoved westwards, and not east like recent years. I'm optimistic about this one given the semi-plume we had earlier in May...

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted Image

 

If this was to come off.. It may be worth taking a short trip to France...  :bomb:  :rofl:  :spiteful:

What a shame I'm only taking hand luggage - otherwise I would have fitted you in. Looks like I'm going to see some fireworks if it all comes off, I'll keep you posted...

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

I'm pretty sure that the thundery breakdown we had recently was first predicted, in FI, as an event for the east. Then it got shunted westwards putting me right in the firing line. If I can get a thunderstorm from an south-easterly event, then I'm sure anyone in the rest of England can!  Hopefully we'll see this plume get shoved westwards, and not east like recent years. I'm optimistic about this one given the semi-plume we had earlier in May...

Yep. I remember you had an issue with the radar as the storms from Wales were moving in your direction, it was almost opposite to what the GFS had initially predicted.
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted Image

 

If this was to come off.. It may be worth taking a short trip to France...  :bomb:  :rofl:  :spiteful:

 

Over the space of 6-7 days, that will almost certainly change - should the southerly plume occur, it will only take a tiny shift west for that hot and humid air to advect across the UK.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Lets hope for a shift westwards with the pattern, chances of some major fireworks.... Netweather storm chasing trip to France anybody?   :bomb:

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Saturday still looks interesting in terms of comparing the 00z and 06z..

post-15177-0-12258300-1401704194_thumb.ppost-15177-0-67880800-1401704227_thumb.ppost-15177-0-07621300-1401704247_thumb.p

At least there's something to talk about?!

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NUT Accomplished

NUT

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
Posted

Something of a possibility for us up here too I notice maybe for saturday? Hm interesting...............

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

A few cells going up to my W now. Not thundery yet but there's always that possibility.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)

Saturday still looks interesting in terms of comparing the 00z and 06z..

Posted ImageScreenshot_2014-06-02-11-14-54.pngPosted ImageScreenshot_2014-06-02-11-15-06.pngPosted ImageScreenshot_2014-06-02-11-15-18.png

At least there's something to talk about?!

 

Friday into the early hours of Saturday looking far more interesting across the South...don't be drawn too much by the pretty reds/lilacs as year after year its disappointment all round.

 

It is still only Monday don't forget so dont get your hopes up - if it looks this way Friday AM then let the ramping begin.

Edited by Harry
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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

Iv'e got Lincolnshire marked down as a dead cert for  tomorrow. :laugh: 

 

 

Tuesday:

Clouds will break during the day with brighter, or sunny spells developing. Further showers are then likely, perhaps heavy at times, and with the risk of thunder in the east.

Updated: 0623 on Mon 2 Jun 2014

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Sprites Seasoned

Sprites

Posted
  • Location: South East UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/mist
  • Location: South East UK
Posted

Saturday still looks interesting in terms of comparing the 00z and 06z..

Posted ImageScreenshot_2014-06-02-11-14-54.pngPosted ImageScreenshot_2014-06-02-11-15-06.pngPosted ImageScreenshot_2014-06-02-11-15-18.png

At least there's something to talk about?!

Especially if your on holiday in France.......

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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

Heard reports that there was a small tornado in kent todayHere is a pic of it on Facebook

Looks to be a cold front funnel cloud. No way near as serious as a supercell funnel. There have been a few reports of them recently.
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