Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[Mapantz]

Is that an MCS I see over France? :<

[ancientsolar]

Ah the photo was quite fuzzy. Are the clouds towering?

they were in that photo, ~ but yes, I had to digitally zoom in all the way ~ so atleast with a nice 135mm lens.. I will be prepared! the camcorder also has a nice zoom of x38 zoom .. so I could do a small time lapse later on any potential towering clouds ~ Here is one I took a couple of years ago. Was a lovely tower timelapse ! 

[William Grimsley]

Anybody seen the BBC Weather graphic for later tomorrow here. It shows quite intense downpours moving up from the S into SW England. Maybe something there if we don't get anything tonight.

[William Grimsley]

they were in that photo, ~ but yes, I had to digitally zoom in all the way ~ so atleast with a nice 135mm lens.. I will be prepared! the camcorder also has a nice zoom of x38 zoom .. so I could do a small time lapse later on any potential towering clouds ~ Here is one I took a couple of years ago. Was a lovely tower timelapse ! 

A nice cumulonimbus cloud in the distance!

[summer blizzard]

Calm down people. You've got a good 6 hours or so before anybody should really be getting excited.

[Joey.G]

Hi everyone, exciting eh?? I just drove from where my sig says to my mums house, 380 miles away in Gloucestershire! Currently eyeing that lot in N wales and the NNM6 wondering if I havnt made a mistake. Your all keeping my hopes high though, still a long way to go and theres bound to be a lot more to chase throughout the night. Im gonna be out all night with camera, probably head east of here a little later to somewhere around Hampshire. Ill keep it going tomorrow too, lots of coffe, lots of miles and hopefully lots of lightning to come!

 

That tiny blob on the radar from the window just now, cause we all love a photo..

 

[Gordon Webb]

Calm down people. You've got a good 6 hours or so before anybody should really be getting excited.

 

or worried

[summer blizzard]

Why do I have this overriding feeling that everywhere will see a decent thunderstorm or two tomorrow, except for Greater Manchester?

 

I'd say that eastern Manchester/the Pennine upslopes are looking pretty good.

[Gordon Webb]

A level 1 was issued for W France and S England for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for excessive precipitation, large hail and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issed for E Spain, S and Central France mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.A level 1 was issued for W-most Russia, parts of Belarus and the Ukraine mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.A level 1 was issued for E Romania, E Bulgaria and N Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for waterspouts.

 

Between a pronounced cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean near 45°N and a weak ridge over Central Europe, a deep Southwesterly flow with strong warm air advection spreads over Spain, France, England, BeNeLux and Germany. This configuration will open up a prolonged severe thunderstorm episode in these countries.Further East, a compact upper-level low slowly moves from Denmark into Southern Sweden. Rather low geopotential connects it with a second upper-level low over Turkey. An anticyclone sits over Western Russia.

 

DISCUSSIONE Spain, France, EnglandUnder strong insolation and a capping inversion created by the warm air advection, rapid diurnal heating and moistening of low-levels can be expected. Forecast models agree on the buildup of CAPE on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg in France till the evening with realistically looking surface dewpoints of 16-18°C. The instability maximum is expected in the Northern foreland of the Pyrenees. Deep-layer shear strengthens to 20-25 m/s, and at least slightly enhanced shear and helicity will also be present at lower levels. The conditions look prime that any forming storm can turn into a well-developed supercell. Main uncertainties will be if convective initiation can be achieved with such a strong cap, and if forming updrafts can grow persistent enough to withstand entrainment of very dry mid-level air.Diurnal timing of large-scale lift is adverse to widespread storm development: after a first short-wave departs eastward until 09 UTC, peak daytime heating hours will rather see large-scale subsidence over most of Spain and France. Only in the evening hours, stronger vorticity maxima will start to overspread the Bay of Biscay and Western France. Though their exact timing and placement is still uncertain, their contribution to lift will likely erode and finally break the cap. The most plausible scenario is that elevated storms will form over the Bay of Biscay in the evening and move northward into Western France (Pays de la Loire, Bretagne) overnight. Severe wind gusts will be the main risk. Other kinds of severe weather (excessive precipitation, large hail and tornadoes) are also possible, but do more critically depend on the question if storms will be able to root down to the surface. If they succeed, they can fully benefit from moist low-level air and further improving wind profiles overnight.Late in the forecast period, elevated storms will likely extend into Southern England with a slowly decreasing severe weather risk.Further East and South, isolated storms may form over orographic features of France and Eastern Spain between noon and sunset, but will struggle to still penetrate the strong cap as soon as the detach from their points of initiation. If they succeed, supercells with a risk of large hail and severe downbursts are forecast, an even an isolated extreme event is possible.Relatively highest probability for initiation seem to exist over Southwestern France in the wake of the Pyrenees, where Northeasterly upslope flow meets with Northwesterly onshore flow from the Bay of Biscay. This region will also see a second chance for initiation overnight when an outflow boundary will move onshore in the wake of the aforementioned MCS. However, with slim to none precipitation signals in all models, confidence in convective initiation is not high enough for a level 2 despite the impressive thermodynamic and kinematic setup.

 

could someone dumb this down for me

[summer blizzard]

or worried

 

Nothing to worry about tonight. The main concern should be flooding for rural villages in the north west.

[William Grimsley]

Nothing to worry about tonight. The main concern should be flooding for rural villages in the north west.

Yeah, I doubt I'll be worried unless it's right overhead and a lightning strike hits my house then I'll be worried.

[lassie23]

could someone dumb this down for me

It might thunder somewhere in the UK sometime soon!

[Hathers]

What ever happens tonight/tomorrow it's still fascinating viewing.

[Supacell]

Hi everyone, exciting eh?? I just drove from where my sig says to my mums house, 380 miles away in Gloucestershire! Currently eyeing that lot in N wales and the NNM6 wondering if I havnt made a mistake. Your all keeping my hopes high though, still a long way to go and theres bound to be a lot more to chase throughout the night. Im gonna be out all night with camera, probably head east of here a little later to somewhere around Hampshire. Ill keep it going tomorrow too, lots of coffe, lots of miles and hopefully lots of lightning to come!

 

That tiny blob on the radar from the window just now, cause we all love a photo..

 

 

That is some serious driving already, and more to come. I thought I was the only person mad enough to drive 100's of miles for a storm and stay out all night, nice to know there is someone else. Good luck tonight, I will be chasing too but not sure where as yet 

[toggerob]

Manchester Airport going for thunderstorms tomorrow and possibly overnight tonight

 

http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/united-kingdom-ireland.php?icao=EGCC

[Spikecollie]

I'd say that eastern Manchester/the Pennine upslopes are looking pretty good.

Well we're heading out walking up the Dales tomorrow, come what may! Off tonight up to Wensleydale.

 

There's nothing happening yet in France - I've just been on the phone to someone in Dijon which is pretty well over East, but storms are forecast.

 

Talk on Sunday night/Monday if we don't drown, get struck by lightning or walk too far because nothing happens at all...

Edited June 6, 2014 by Spikecollie

[summer blizzard]

It's just that the thunderstorm risk for me has been downgraded from 78% to 52% and the BBC and Met Office are just going for light rain with occasional heavy rain...

 

Don't get hung up on percentages.

[Mokidugway]

Acas apearing all around now , a sure good sign of instability, last time I saw some I got 5 hours of storms !!!.....

[Costa Del Fal]

The amount of you relying on percentages, statistics, symbols and lower resolution model data is unhealthy!!!

 

Go and enjoy the warmth outside and the weather will do what it wants. You have no control!

 

I'm off to watch 22 Jump Street tonight, really is little point watching the charts now!

Edited June 6, 2014 by Blizzards

[Gordon Webb]

I thought Acas was there to prevent strikes

The amount of you relying on percentages, statistics, symbols and lower resolution model data is unhealthy!!!

 

Go and enjoy the warmth and outside and the weather will do what it wants. You have no control!

 

I'm off to watch 22 Jump Street tonight, really is little point watching the charts now!

 

quite right percentages are no good 75% of people know that

[Snowshine]

[Chris K]

Sorry 

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

I'd say that eastern Manchester/the Pennine upslopes are looking pretty good.

 

I will be keeping my fingers crossed S.B, As you say a long time to go yet in the scale of things, But it's looking good so far..

Edited June 6, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[William Grimsley]

More altocumulus castellanus cloud has developed overhead now. It's beautiful.

[Gordon Webb]

 

looks the east is taking a battering there looks like you and me are not if I'm reading it right and also seems to represent the metoffice rain forecaster quite well if its accurate

Edited June 6, 2014 by Gordon Webb