Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[summer blizzard]

[P-M]

I don't buy this whole headaches being a sign of a thunderstorm malarkey. IMO it's probably due to slight dehydration owing to the fact it's warm and humid outside. People just associate it with thunderstorms because sometimes thunderstorms are associated with warm, muggy weather. The myth perpetuated from there. Drink a pint of water 

 

I've rolled my eyes a few times when people I know have said there's storms on the way because they happened to have a headache....I knew there wasn't any storms on the way but all I can do is grin and nod slowly lol.

 

 

Study 1:

 

Electromagnetic waves could be responsible for triggering headaches, they suggested, while lightning also increases air pollutants like ozone and can cause release of fungal spores which may result in migraines, researchers suggested.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/9824127/Lightning-may-cause-headaches.html

[Harry]

Still all very quiet on the western front - looks like a fairly decent Cu/Ac field wafting off the BoB INTO W France.

 

Looking for some initiation in the next hour or so

Edited June 6, 2014 by Harry

[Gordon Webb]

Quite high, I'm pretty much expecting it TBH. Noticed the BBC graphics have nudged east from this morning too.

 

i'm dreaming of...

Has posted a screen of 2pm tomorrow which shows unstable air further east again in the model thread not sure which site it comes from

 

Keeps going E and the north sea could be in for a pasting

Edited June 6, 2014 by Gordon Webb

[Cheshire Freeze]

Study 1:

 

Electromagnetic waves could be responsible for triggering headaches, they suggested, while lightning also increases air pollutants like ozone and can cause release of fungal spores which may result in migraines, researchers suggested.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/9824127/Lightning-may-cause-headaches.html

 

There's been plenty of research that has supposedly 'proven' many things, sometimes disproved by other studies. Given I know people who don't even drink water at all, instead living off pop, energy drinks, tea and coffee, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that once the temperature rises they become dehydrated easily. Of course they're more likely to remember the resultant headaches if accompanied by a storm shortly after; owing to how the human brain works (attempting to see patterns and cause and effect).

[Dancerwithwings]

Study 1:

 

Electromagnetic waves could be responsible for triggering headaches, they suggested, while lightning also increases air pollutants like ozone and can cause release of fungal spores which may result in migraines, researchers suggested.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/9824127/Lightning-may-cause-headaches.html

Study 2:

 

Paracetamol

[BrickFielder]

 06Z NMM Modle output much keener on the overnight elevated storms.

 

Still developing storms from early morning onwards.

 

 

 

I should say that there seems to be some agreement in the models about overnight now, but tomorrow daytime still differs from model to model.

[A.J]

cheers BF,my thoughts exactly......sometimes I despair on this thread as it reminds me so much of the model thread in winter with all the baseless negativity....some of it today is bordering on trolling IMO.....so for those who seem to delight in posting on downgrades, my advice is post supporting charts or at least some sort of reasoning, otherwise don't be too surprised if your posts disappear 

[slinky1989]

Anyone from the Midlands out chasing tonight or tomorrow? I'm fairly new to the area so don't know any good spots to view from!

[Chris101]

 06Z NMM Modle output much keener on the overnight elevated storms.

cloudprecip01.pngcloudprecip03.png

 

Still developing storms from early morning onwards.

 

cloudprecip08.pngcloudprecip11.png

 

cloudprecip15.png

 

I should say that there seems to be some agreement in the models about overnight now, but tomorrow daytime still differs from model to model.

Yes, after the initial destabilisation through the night, there does look to be a further destabilisation early saturday morning.

[Harry]

cheers BF,my thoughts exactly......sometimes I despair on this thread as it reminds me so much of the model thread in winter with all the baseless negativity....some of it today is bordering on trolling IMO.....so for those who seem to delight in posting on downgrades, my advice is post supporting charts or at least some sort of reasoning, otherwise don't be too surprised if your posts disappear 

 

Mmmhmmm!!! Well, if that model is accurate (and it usually is) I'll be lucky to see a single drop of rain...

Edited June 6, 2014 by Harry

[Buzzard]

Anyone from the Midlands out chasing tonight or tomorrow? I'm fairly new to the area so don't know any good spots to view from!

 

Just go south up those big hills you have near you. My mate's daughters were christened in a small church up there - brill view all over Brum.

[Cheshire Freeze]

cheers BF,my thoughts exactly......sometimes I despair on this thread as it reminds me so much of the model thread in winter with all the baseless negativity....some of it today is bordering on trolling IMO.....so for those who seem to delight in posting on downgrades, my advice is post supporting charts or at least some sort of reasoning, otherwise don't be too surprised if your posts disappear 

 

AJ, there's bound to be despondency from some when they see the usual adjustments to what was once great looking modelling. In those charts that Brickfielder has posted (and a lot of others that have been posted) it is clear to see that there is no wriggle room for my location and areas further west. The best precipitation rates are clearly edging east and IMO it's pertinent to discuss what is being shown by the latest modelling. Some areas will get clobbered, I've no doubt about that, but for me and others it's knife edge stuff. I suspect there's others on here who feel just as downbeat but don't post for fear of being called a troll. It's ok to ramp things up but any caution or suggestion that it may not happen for some is seemingly frowned upon.

 

Anyway maybe I should take your advice and move out of Crewe, I'm still game for that Lincolnshire house swap 

Edited June 6, 2014 by CreweCold

[Dancerwithwings]

cheers BF,my thoughts exactly......sometimes I despair on this thread as it reminds me so much of the model thread in winter with all the baseless negativity....some of it today is bordering on trolling IMO.....so for those who seem to delight in posting on downgrades, my advice is post supporting charts or at least some sort of reasoning, otherwise don't be too surprised if your posts disappear 

AMEN.

 

Anyone from the Midlands out chasing tonight or tomorrow? I'm fairly new to the area so don't know any good spots to view from!

The Lickey Hills (known locally as simply The Lickeys) Just to the west of Brum. A country park area and they afford panoramic views over much of the surrounding countryside.

Been up there many a time

[Gordon Webb]

met office local forecast now has the west midlands mostly but not completely dry overnight

 

West Midlands Headline:

Mostly dry overnight, with heavy thundery rain on Saturday.

This Evening and Tonight:

Most places will be dry and fine in the evening. During the early hours a few heavy and thundery outbreaks of rain will move northeastwards across the region. It will be a muggy night. Minimum Temperature 12 Â°C.

Saturday:

Humid with more frequent thunderstorms and locally intense downpours, perhaps with hail for a time. Drier, brighter and fresher conditions will move in from the southwest later. Maximum Temperature 21 Â°C.

 

not sure if that ties in with latest data but it does tie in with met office forecast maps

[Candice]

SkyWarn UK Severe Thunderstorm Watch 22 now issued http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Last bit from Skywarn made me chuckle:

 

THERE ALSO EXISTS A RISK FOR THE SOUTH COAST, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF, OF ADVECTED CONTINENTAL STORMS. THESE WILL LIKELY BE MATURE AND MAY REINVIGORATE AFTER THE CHANNEL, ALSO PROMOTING A RISK OF LARGE HAIL, STRONG GUSTS AND BRIEF TORNADOES. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED.

 

Have they ever watched a thunderstorm try cross the channel?   

[Harry]

SkyWarn UK Severe Thunderstorm Watch 22 now issued http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

 

Have to say - reading that don't 'alf get the juices going

[jmatt81]

Anyone from the Midlands out chasing tonight or tomorrow? I'm fairly new to the area so don't know any good spots to view from!

If you can get up Mucklow Hill or Lickey Hills with a good vantage point you'll get a great south view. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

Have they ever watched a thunderstorm try cross the channel?   

 

A bit like a badger trying to cross the M6 in rush hour? lol

[NO LONGER POSTING]

A bit like a badger trying to cross the M6 in rush hour? lol

 

           

[P-M]

There's been plenty of research that has supposedly 'proven' many things, sometimes disproved by other studies. Given I know people who don't even drink water at all, instead living off pop, energy drinks, tea and coffee, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that once the temperature rises they become dehydrated easily. Of course they're more likely to remember the resultant headaches if accompanied by a storm shortly after; owing to how the human brain works (attempting to see patterns and cause and effect).

 

 

True and a good point Crewe - although I am more than inclined to keep more of an open mind but point taken on board mate. 

 

As for tomorrows potential I think we are looking at PM for storms to start (in this locale) if any - really would like some lengthy lightning activity.  I think for some tomorrow could be a long day!!

Edited June 6, 2014 by P-M

[Azazel]

right. Cameras charging, phone is charging etc.

 

This might be my last post in here today - we get patchy internet in our location so i will be desperately trying to check the forum for updates as the evening progresses and I will post anything of note if I can.

 

Good luck to everyone tonight and stay safe:)

[lassie23]

right. Cameras charging, phone is charging etc.

 

This might be my last post in here today - we get patchy internet in our location so i will be desperately trying to check the forum for updates as the evening progresses and I will post anything of note if I can.

 

Good luck to everyone tonight and stay safe:)

Don't forget your umbrella and stay off the hills! Take care! Clear blue skies her, 23C, calm before the storm(s)

[Candice]

Last bit from Skywarn made me chuckle:

 

THERE ALSO EXISTS A RISK FOR THE SOUTH COAST, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF, OF ADVECTED CONTINENTAL STORMS. THESE WILL LIKELY BE MATURE AND MAY REINVIGORATE AFTER THE CHANNEL, ALSO PROMOTING A RISK OF LARGE HAIL, STRONG GUSTS AND BRIEF TORNADOES. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED.

 

Have they ever watched a thunderstorm try cross the channel?   

MAY being the operative word