Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[Wilxy]

Another load of altocumulus castellanus cloud has developed to the SSW of here.

 

Hello William still using your vantage vue.

[Dancerwithwings]

sorry to ask but does anyone know when the next euro4 update is.

4 times per day, from 0:00, 05:00, 11:00 and 17:00 GMT

[Wilxy]

4 times per day, from 0:00, 05:00, 11:00 and 17:00 GMT

Thanks.

[Azazel]

zinging headache starting. Good sign;)

[Robbie Garrett]

I'd say nothing can beat a good old bit of now-casting, and that's what tonight will be. The fact that all the elements are in place, doesn't mean it will happen - those who remember a few years back when we all expected everything to work out nicely, and the front stalled.  Tonight we have a trough feature right where there's likely to be good juice in place, if that ignites I'd suspect to see some Monsters head up into Southern England into the very early hours of the morning. Possibly an MCS, I doubt there's much organisation for a supercell.

 

 

 

Quite a bit of CAPE tonight and a decent -LI, I suspect anything ahead of the Trough/Cold Front will likely be clustered and moving in the northerly direction.

 

 

 

[ancientsolar]

I'd say nothing can beat a good old bit of now-casting, and that's what tonight will be. The fact that all the elements are in place, doesn't mean it will happen - those who remember a few years back when we all expected everything to work out nicely, and the front stalled.  Tonight we have a trough feature right where there's likely to be good juice in place, if that ignites I'd suspect to see some Monsters head up into Southern England into the very early hours of the morning. Possibly an MCS, I doubt there's much organisation for a supercell.

 

 

15126570.gif

 

Quite a bit of CAPE tonight and a decent -LI, I suspect anything ahead of the Trough/Cold Front will likely be clustered and moving in the northerly direction.

 

 

 

Well I hope there will be a StormZilla on its way

[Chris K]

Remember rainfall forecasts aren't always a great tool to forecast where storms will be. The last belter of a storm I had was 9th May 2008 from a slow moving cold front hitting a warm air mass to the East. If I remember rightly, the rainfall itself lasted about 15-30 minutes torrential before leaving a 2 hour light show with no further rain

 

(It being dark probably helped)

Edited June 6, 2014 by Chris K

[Wilxy]

Remember rainfall forecasts aren't always a great tool to forecast where storms will be. The last belter of a storm I had was 9th May 2008 from a slow moving cold front hitting a warm air mass to the East. If I remember rightly, the rainfall itself lasted about 15-30 minutes torrential before leaving a 2 hour light show with no further rain

 

(Being dark probably helped)

 

Il never forget that storm, best storm I can remember apart from when I was little and it seemed to thunder all the time.

[Karl83]

Remember rainfall forecasts aren't always a great tool to forecast where storms will be. The last belter of a storm I had was 9th May 2008 from a slow moving cold front hitting a warm air mass to the East. If I remember rightly, the rainfall itself lasted about 15-30 minutes torrential before leaving a 2 hour light show with no further rain

 

(It being dark probably helped)

Do you think we'll catch something tonight mate?

[Gordon Webb]

I'd say nothing can beat a good old bit of now-casting, and that's what tonight will be. The fact that all the elements are in place, doesn't mean it will happen - those who remember a few years back when we all expected everything to work out nicely, and the front stalled.  Tonight we have a trough feature right where there's likely to be good juice in place, if that ignites I'd suspect to see some Monsters head up into Southern England into the very early hours of the morning. Possibly an MCS, I doubt there's much organisation for a supercell.

 

 

15126570.gif

 

Quite a bit of CAPE tonight and a decent -LI, I suspect anything ahead of the Trough/Cold Front will likely be clustered and moving in the northerly direction.

 

 

 

 

sorry to sound dim but what do you mean by clustered

[AWD]

Remember rainfall forecasts aren't always a great tool to forecast where storms will be. The last belter of a storm I had was 9th May 2008 from a slow moving cold front hitting a warm air mass to the East. If I remember rightly, the rainfall itself lasted about 15-30 minutes torrential before leaving a 2 hour light show with no further rain  (It being dark probably helped)

That's exactly where I think our region will go with the next 24hrs or so.I expect overnight/early hours elevated lightning but not so much in the way of thunder or rain.There could be some (most notably around dawn) but I think there will be longer periods of frequent elevated lightning throughout early Saturday morning.

[Karl83]

That's exactly where I think our region will go with the next 24hrs or so.I expect overnight/early hours elevated lightning but not so much in the way of thunder or rain.There could be some (most notably around dawn) but I think there will be longer periods of frequent elevated lightning throughout early Saturday morning.

Good to see you back.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

sorry to sound dim but what do you mean by clustered

 

Grouped up thunderstorms as in there will be a band of rain with "clusters" of thunderstorms in it 

[Mapantz]

I'm quite happy with with what's on offer, I'm in a fairly decent spot for something elevated as we head in to the second half of tonight. It's just a matter of sitting tight and watching the radar while I'm out tonight, then hopefully, on my way home, a light show might begin!

[Chris K]

Do you think we'll catch something tonight mate?

 

AWD pretty much just summed up what i think may happen for our region **IF** things develop nicely to our South and along the trough feature and/or cold front. Definitely a lighting tracker watching night for me coming up if something does get going. I love these sort of setups but it usually means a yawn fest the day after!

 

For us W Country folk, I expect Ian F's forecast tonight will determine our chances as he always seems to be on the ball with his knowledge and presentation 

Edited June 6, 2014 by Chris K

[Azazel]

we have camping chairs, tripods, three DSLR cameras, energy drinks and most importantly of all, a crate of beer.

 

Our vantage point looks due south and west towards Winchester and Southampton beyond, last time we were up there we caught a few glimpses of fork lightning which i would estimate as far away as the channel (40-50 miles) seeing as I dont think any strikes occured in-land that evening...so fingers crossed. Its now or never gentlemen

[Karl83]

AWD pretty much just summed up what i think may happen for our region **IF** things develop nicely to our South and along the trough feature and/or cold front. Definitely a lighting tracker watching night for me coming up if something does get going. I love these sort of setups but it usually means a yawn fest the day after!

 

For us W Country folk, I expect Ian F's forecast tonight will determine our chances as he always seems to be on the ball with his knowledge and presentation 

Cool cool. My Weather Pro app says Thunderstorms from 0100 through until 0700. Fingers double crossed eh!! :-)

we have camping chairs, tripods, three DSLR cameras, energy drinks and most importantly of all, a crate of beer.

 

Our vantage point looks due south and west towards Winchester and Southampton beyond, last time we were up there we caught a few glimpses of fork lightning which i would estimate as far away as the channel (40-50 miles) seeing as I dont think any strikes occured in-land that evening...so fingers crossed. Its now or never gentlemen

Sounds awesome!

[Mapantz]

Anyone fancy meeting up down here? I know some brilliant vantage points, the Purbeck hills are probably the best place to be. I'll bring the beers?!

[Harry]

UKMO precip forecast updated and for the SE is definitely an improvement...again, pinch of salt stuff but nice to see

[lassie23]

Anyone fancy meeting up down here? I know some brilliant vantage points, the Purbeck hills are probably the best place to be. I'll bring the beers?!

That depends on the odds of getting struck by lightining, whilst watching thunderstorms on a hill! That is what you are going to do, or did i read it wrong?

[Mapantz]

That depends on the odds of getting struck by lightining, whilst watching thunderstorms on a hill! That is what you are going to do, or did i read it wrong?

I have a four wheeled Faraday cage with me.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

we have camping chairs, tripods, three DSLR cameras, energy drinks and most importantly of all, a crate of beer. Our vantage point looks due south and west towards Winchester and Southampton beyond, last time we were up there we caught a few glimpses of fork lightning which i would estimate as far away as the channel (40-50 miles) seeing as I dont think any strikes occured in-land that evening...so fingers crossed. Its now or never gentlemen

Portsdown hill is always a sweet spot for overlooking the channel for storms

[Azazel]

That depends on the odds of getting struck by lightining, whilst watching thunderstorms on a hill! That is what you are going to do, or did i read it wrong?

 

This is something we are also genuinely worried about haha which is why i'm hoping anything that develops will slip by slightly to the west. We literally have nowhere to fall back to as the car will be a good half mile away:(

 

 

Minutes after photographing this at the top of the Kingsclere downs, it came directly overhead. The hail was a whiteout and i remember sprinting the 400 yards or so down the hill and back to the car as lightning was flashing all around and the thunder was one continuos, explosive roar.

 

Safe to say, never want to be in that position again, I was genuinely terrified..and very wet.

[Robbie Garrett]

sorry to sound dim but what do you mean by clustered

Well I am not 100% on anything organised, but individual cells clustered closely together is more likely I'd say.  I'd say two waves of storms tonight, initially from the trough then the cold front. 

 

See First Wave - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london-greater-london#?tab=map&zoom=7&lon=-1.61&lat=51.09&map=Rainfall&fcTime=1402056000

 

Second Wave - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london-greater-london#?tab=map&zoom=7&lon=-1.61&lat=51.09&map=Rainfall&fcTime=1402077600

 

This tonight would be great

 

Edited June 6, 2014 by Robbie Garrett

[lassie23]

I have a four wheeled Faraday cage with me.

Had to google that! I am forecast petit pois sized hail tomorrow!