Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

Take a look at this peeps!!latest wrf nmm 06z breaks out I line of one can only assume is storms across the heart of england from 11pm tonight and 3am saturday morning!!so although chances have receded somewhat for tomorrow we might still actually get something better and thats a light show tonight!fingere crossed!here are the charts. ........

 

I think (hope) that it possibly has that signal too far east.

[TheToastPeople]

MetO had changed me back to light rain.

 

*gives up* 

To be fair the storms always seem to go either side of us in bedford due to the topography, I would suggest going storm chasing after midnight tonight if you want to see anything! I will be on the tallest hill with camera primed towards the sandy heath tower, providing the strong cap can burst....

[William Grimsley]

I think (hope) that it possibly has that signal too far east.

Does seem a bit E to me.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Does seem a bit E to me.

 

Put it this way, if even the elevated stuff goes that far E then those of us in the west are well and truly knackered. For that reason let's hope the NMM has it too far E.

 

I'm waiting for the 6z Euro4....seems to take ages for it to trickle out. It's past midday now!

Edited June 6, 2014 by CreweCold

[TwisterGirl81]

Oh I really hope we see this in Devon!! This is from Metcheck:

 

Advanced Weather Warning

Issued

Fri 6 Jun: 10:00 BST

Valid From

Fri 6 Jun : 22:00 BST(In 10hrs)

Valid Until

Sun 8 Jun : 04:00 BST (40hrs remaining)Advance Weather Warning For Severe Wind Gusts, Heavy Rain & Large HailThis warning has now been upgraded and updated to include Southern and South-east England.A large area of low pressure to the South-west of the UK will introduce a plume of warm and unstable air across the UK later this evening and overnight into tomorrow.There remains uncertainty with regards to the exact track of imported storms from France and not everyone will experience them, however the potential is for organised multicell structures across Southern England during the early hours of Saturday.During Saturday this risk will extend further North into the Midlands, Wales and later Northern England and Scotland.At present, the main risk is for severe wind gusts of up to 60-70mph around the systems as well as excessive rainfall with local flash flooding, large hail and F1/2 tornadoes.We will be monitoring developments across Spain/France closely today as if the storms develop closer to the surface level and access moist low-level air across the Channel this evening it is likely flash weather warnings will be issued for Southern England for tonight.---END--- 

[William Grimsley]

Put it this way, if even the elevated stuff goes that far E then those of us in the west are well and truly knackered. For that reason let's hope the NMM has it too far E.

Well, we're going to get rain. But, if you see my recent photos there are signs of instability now.

Oh I really hope we see this in Devon!! This is from Metcheck:

 

Advanced Weather Warning

Issued

Fri 6 Jun: 10:00 BST

Valid From

Fri 6 Jun : 22:00 BST(In 10hrs)

Valid Until

Sun 8 Jun : 04:00 BST (40hrs remaining)Advance Weather Warning For Severe Wind Gusts, Heavy Rain & Large HailThis warning has now been upgraded and updated to include Southern and South-east England.A large area of low pressure to the South-west of the UK will introduce a plume of warm and unstable air across the UK later this evening and overnight into tomorrow.There remains uncertainty with regards to the exact track of imported storms from France and not everyone will experience them, however the potential is for organised multicell structures across Southern England during the early hours of Saturday.During Saturday this risk will extend further North into the Midlands, Wales and later Northern England and Scotland.At present, the main risk is for severe wind gusts of up to 60-70mph around the systems as well as excessive rainfall with local flash flooding, large hail and F1/2 tornadoes.We will be monitoring developments across Spain/France closely today as if the storms develop closer to the surface level and access moist low-level air across the Channel this evening it is likely flash weather warnings will be issued for Southern England for tonight.---END--- 

 

Can you see the altocumulus castellanus yet?

[Cheshire Freeze]

I know I said ignore the precipitation charts but I'm just posting them to show the marked difference between the 14km and 4KM resolution.

Screenshots14km.pngScreenshot4km.png

 

I'll take the first one please.

 

Accumulated totals for the 6z Euro4

 

 

 

Very underwhelming TBH and down on the 0z for quite a few places.

Edited June 6, 2014 by CreweCold

[TonyH]

Well, we're going to get rain. But, if you see my recent photos there are signs of instability now.

Can you see the altocumulus castellanus yet?

Even the rain may be rather patchy!

[William Grimsley]

Even the rain may be rather patchy!

Hmm, but this rain is intense rain.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hmm, but this rain is intense rain.

 

There's nothing intense shown on the Euro4 mate. Unless you happen to live in S Ireland. This plume is being downgraded at a rate of knots. Some areas will get some thunder, lightning and heavy rain...undoubtedly. Not a patch on what was shown 36 hours ago though.

[TwisterGirl81]

Well, we're going to get rain. But, if you see my recent photos there are signs of instability now.

Can you see the altocumulus castellanus yet?

 

It's Hazy sun here in Exeter and breezy but not cold, times like these I really wish we were part of the contenent.....

 

I think if we get any storms it'll be after 12am tonight, fingers crossed.

[William Grimsley]

There's nothing intense shown on the Euro4 mate. Unless you happen to live in S Ireland. This plume is being downgraded at a rate of knots. Some areas will get some thunder, lightning and heavy rain...undoubtedly. Not a patch on what was shown 36 hours ago though.

Sigh.

[Dami]

Look on the bright side...

 

Where I am is now an 'isolated risk' of stormy stuff.

 

*cries*

[saint]

Look on the bright side... Where I am is now an 'isolated risk' of stormy stuff. *cries*

You are in a good location for tomorrow, stop worrying and just check the radars from tonight onwards!

[Summer Sun]

Updated warning from the met office

 

Issued at: 1128 on Fri 6 Jun 2014

Valid from: 0300 on Sat 7 Jun 2014

Valid to: 2345 on Sat 7 Jun 2014

 

Heavy, thundery rain is expected to affect parts of the UK on Saturday. Some initial thundery outbreaks, possibly accompanied by frequent lightning, may arrive from around midnight, but it is later in the night and during the morning that the south will be at risk from more widespread thundery developments and locally intense rainfall. The focus is then expected to shift into northern England, southwest Scotland and eastern fringes of Northern Ireland during the afternoon, while parts of southern Britain see improving conditions. The public should be aware of the potential for localised flooding due to the intensity of the downpours although the location of the heaviest rainfall remains uncertain.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Warm, humid air will be pulled northwards from France and Spain late on Friday and during Saturday. Within this air mass, there is an increasing likelihood of heavy, thundery downpours breaking out. It is likely that many places within the current broad warning area will miss the worst of the storms, but where they occur they could produce in excess of 20 mm of rain in an hour, with one or two places seeing more than 40 mm within 2 or 3 hours, with localised flooding a possibility.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1402095600&regionName=uk

[Paul]

Weather alert issued:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alert-status;sess=

[Mapantz]

I'll still take this from Meteogroup..

Edited June 6, 2014 by Mapantz

[joggs]

Well i'll be happy just to see some torrential rain here lol.Good luck and its all about radar watching!!.

[Tom Jarvis]

Interesting read here about this weekend looking good http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2013/06/07/loaded-gun-atmospheric-sounding/

[Dami]

To be fair the storms always seem to go either side of us in bedford due to the topography, I would suggest going storm chasing after midnight tonight if you want to see anything! I will be on the tallest hill with camera primed towards the sandy heath tower, providing the strong cap can burst....

Yes, I find where I live now to be one of the most annoying places ever for storms. I used to work 30mins away and we had some lovely storms overhead, be it I was in a room with no windows..June28th 2012 classic example of storms being close but not close enough. Would love to be out and about later, but my little one wears me out!

 

Don't use that to determine how you're going to do! At the moment, I would say you're in a pretty good location for tomorrow.

I'm like a kid in a toy shop when it comes to storms, I have to say..Hubby doesn't quite understand the' look out of every window' and run out bare foot with a camera thing I have. Thunderstorms just knock out our sky and we normally lose power, and are a pain rather than something to be enjoyed. A-hem!

I dare say the fear of disappointment out weights the fact I might have some of the best storms I have seen since I moved away from the coast. And it's so easy to look at the worst forecast and accept that's what i'm getting rather than celebrate the fact the risk is there and very much alive.

But thanks for your input peeps! I kinda forget i'm a 'thunderhead' junkie as well as a storm freak and i'm sure even if I don't get a storm I will have some amazing clouds to look at and photo, and that;s something to look forward too

[Norfolk Sheep]

I really can't think of what word Carol Kirkwood would use regarding the word 'H'...... Holy moley!, "holy crap!" even...H-bomb! maybe Any guesses?

I'm not saying it, it's a kiss of death

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Really nothing to scream and shout about now   Oh wait....

[Wilxy]

sorry to ask but does anyone know when the next euro4 update is.

[William Grimsley]

Another load of altocumulus castellanus cloud has developed to the SSW of here.

[Gordon Webb]

I felt a little better this morning as the threat seemed to be a little less but with everyone issuing warnings I am quite worried again

 

met office did not seem to bad as it had it through the morning but easing it through afternoon but netweather has the threat going through afternoon

 

wish I knew which one to put my most faith in