Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

Jane Louise
 Share

Recommended Posts

Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

People have to bear in mind that the atmosphere come tonight/tomorrow will be very unstable. Even we charts are showing 'heavy frontal rain' the atmosphere could easily go bang ahead of it with rashes of thunderstorms breaking out.

 

What's more, should any MCS systems evolve over France/Biscay as seems increasingly likely (Estofex almost infer that it is a certainty), it will (effectively) make the charts pointless because, as we all know, once they motor on it can be very difficult to anticipate what they will do. It will then completely distort the possible evolution of things thereafter.

 

Lots of juice, lots of convective potential...for what its worth, it is a stunning day in London. Not a cloud in the sky bar silky cirrus and temperature climbing nicely.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Andy Pepler Enthusiast

Andy Pepler

Posted
  • Location: Westbury wiltshire
  • Location: Westbury wiltshire
Posted

I really can't think of what word Carol Kirkwood would use regarding the word 'H'...... Holy moley!, "holy crap!" even...H-bomb! maybe :shok: Any guesses? :wink:

humdinger maybe  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>runs for the hills

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

More altocumulus castellanus clouds are forming to the S and SSW now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Sure has. Those warm uppers are dwindling fast. Those rainfall rates look insane in some areas however

 

Posted Image

 

We want colder uppers and warmer lowers surely? 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

We want colder uppers and warmer lowers surely? 

 

No the higher CAPE values have been attached to the main thrust of the plume i.e where the highest uppers were found. It's no coincidence that as the uppers have been moderated, so has the available energy. Behind the cold front the atmosphere is relatively stable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hodgheg Community Regular

Hodgheg

Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
Posted

Hm not looking good from the 06z for my area now. I think ill stop chart watching and see what happens now. Monday looks just as good if not better by the way!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NUT Accomplished

NUT

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
Posted

France still looking astounding for monday (and the SE) nevermind tomorrow..............

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

France still looking astounding for monday (and the SE) nevermind tomorrow..............

 

Seems to be a slight trend WEST with this on GFS. Hope these increments west can perpetuate and bring more of the country into the fold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Azazel Veteran

Azazel

Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
Posted

Accas in the sky. Charts on here and charts I've seen on other sites cant seem to get a grip on which side of the isle of wight this could happen, so i cant decide where to go for the best view:/

Also i've heard GFS is modelling precip breaking out Dorset area by 4pm which would be far too early:(

Link to comment
Share on other sites
lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted

100% certain of thunderstorms in London tomorrow, my cousin has decided to have a barbecue and ignore the weather forecast, 'because they always get it wrong.' :laugh: :laugh:

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sainsbo Aficionado

Sainsbo

Posted
Posted

It's quite surreal how different the NMM and GFS are. GFS Showing 1300J/kg and Li of -3, whereas the NMM is showing CAPE of 2600J/kg and Li of -7

 

Maybe they'll both be wrong, and we'll get a CAPE of 4000J/kg and Li of -11?  ;) 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hodgheg Community Regular

Hodgheg

Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
Posted

I havent been looking at the charts past tomorrow but even if tomorrow doesn't come off, looks like there's plenty of opportunity through the week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Jesus! Never seen so much altocumulus castellanus cloud! This is a very good sign! :D

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted

and so the waiting game begins....

 

Good luck all, I got a stock of ice creams in just in case ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted (edited)

Hm not looking good from the 06z for my area now. I think ill stop chart watching and see what happens now. Monday looks just as good if not better by the way!

 keeping one eye on that situation, Wouldn't take much looking at the latest FAX charts, for that low over the near continent to be a little more westwards.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

Netweather seems to be the only site forecasting storms tomorrow for me. Elsewhere says light rain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted

here's 20 pence, now go phone someone who gives a damn, old bean  :laugh:

 

 

you'll get a storm tomorrow Paul, trust me, I'll somehow make it happen....if only to shut you up  :p  :p  :laugh:

20p Hope that is not for a BT payphone...............................

Link to comment
Share on other sites
saint Rising Star

saint

Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts
Posted (edited)

Still looks to me that tomorrow afternoon could see some activity break out in the East Midlands/West of EA and the SE?

Edited by saint
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Am I the only one sat refreshing the Metoffice warning page like a loony?

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
saint Rising Star

saint

Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts
Posted

Am I the only one sat refreshing the Metoffice warning page like a loony?

 

They probably cant decide whether to click send or wait a bit longer!  :laugh:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jan Rising Star

Jan

Posted
  • Location: North Liverpool & Huertas Bajas de Cabra Cordoba S
  • Weather Preferences: Any extreme weather conditions
  • Location: North Liverpool & Huertas Bajas de Cabra Cordoba S
Posted

Netweather seems to be the only site forecasting storms tomorrow for me. Elsewhere says light rain.

That's what I was saying earlier for my location.

 

Just a thought, why is it that the GFS was/is criticised generally for being poor and not in line with other models and yet all hopes/disappointment/comments at the moment are being pinned on what it is showing this morning, surely the other models need looking at too?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Am I the only one sat refreshing the Metoffice warning page like a loony?

Just like me looking at this forum nearly all the time when I should be well...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)

Jesus! Never seen so much altocumulus castellanus cloud! This is a very good sign! :D

 

Post a pic :D

 

Seeing swathes of AcCas, especially the large man'o'war jellyfish sort are in my experience fantastic precursors. For as long as I can remember, whenever I have seen decent AcCas thunderstorms have usually followed. Suffice to say I can see none yet to my North or East (my window views)

Edited by Harry
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jan Rising Star

Jan

Posted
  • Location: North Liverpool & Huertas Bajas de Cabra Cordoba S
  • Weather Preferences: Any extreme weather conditions
  • Location: North Liverpool & Huertas Bajas de Cabra Cordoba S
Posted

Am I the only one sat refreshing the Metoffice warning page like a loony?

 I am too, should be doing other things but.......... :whistling:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

 I am too, should be doing other things but.......... :whistling:

 

Should see my F5 button....

 

Posted Image

 

Come on metoffice

 

Posted Image

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...