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Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

is the cold front moving through a little quicker than previously anticipated? i worry too for those up north and east it will arrive too early and not give time for max heating

 

I'm not worrying about it arriving early too much, if it does. Last month I was woken up at 5am by a violent storm, without solar heating.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull

is the cold front moving through a little quicker than previously anticipated? i worry too for those up north and east it will arrive too early and not give time for max heating

Oh don't put ideas in my head. 

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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

Yes, radar watching for me later tomorrow I think. I'm pretty sure it was altocumulus castellanus cloud if rather misty and not very pronounced.

Really hope you get some good storms...

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

is the cold front moving through a little quicker than previously anticipated? i worry too for those up north and east it will arrive too early and not give time for max heating

 

Don't worry about those N&E, worry about those of us out west who might end up witnessing a bit of rain before cells erupt further E!

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

Yes GFS 12z seems to have shifted the highest CAPE further east to my disappointment. Certainly not as stellar as the 6z. Hope it can bull back west slightly but once a shift east occurs, it doesn't normally correct the other way. My main fear is that best potential heating wise won't be realised here as the front pushes east too early in the day. Que sera.

Yes CC, yet again the front passes through this area at just about the worst time. It should be perfectly timed for..oh I don't know, let's say Lincolnshire? Why does this happen every single time? Is it some new law of thermodynamics that any potentially thundery trough must pass through Western areas before heating has a chance to get underway & the previous nights rubbish is still hanging round?

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Posted
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL

Don't worry about those N&E, worry about those of us out west who might end up witnessing a bit of rain before cells erupt further E!

Hear hear

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Yes CC, yet again the front passes through this area at just about the worst time. It should be perfectly timed for..oh I don't know, let's say Lincolnshire? Why does this happen every single time? Is it some new law of thermodynamics that any potentially thundery trough must pass through Western areas before heating has a chance to get underway & the previous nights rubbish is still hanging round?

 

I have no idea Dave but it's getting oh so tiring. I have no idea why it keeps happening. All we need is the front to pass 3-4 hours later. I actually started to believe too....right up until the 12z suites rolled out. It's funny how the ideal scenario can hold run after run until one particular suite close to the event, which just shunts everything away.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

I wouldn't normally pick out a sweet spot for chasing until just before I am setting off as forecasts change by the hour. On current charts I would say the best spots for overnight lightning would be the western portion of CS England during the early hours of tomorrow morning. Then, looking at Saturday itself I would say the best chance for severe thunderstorms to be around the N.Cambridgeshire/Leicestershire/S.Lincolnshire area around the middle of the day and onto East Anglia in the evening.

 

However, if these charts we are seeing actually come off then storm activity could occur anywhere, with the risks transferring east with time.

One word... Perfect :good:

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL

I have no idea Dave but it's getting oh so tiring. I have no idea why it keeps happening. All we need is the front to pass 3-4 hours later. I actually started to believe too....right up until the 12z suites rolled out. It's funny how the ideal scenario can hold run after run until one particular suite close to the event, which just shunts everything away.

I'm staying cautiously optimistic. We might not get the big stuff (MCS, supercells) but ingredients are there for some thunderstorms to pop up anywhere really, just hope its not this "thundery rain" ...which usually is just rain.

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Posted
  • Location: Westbury wiltshire
  • Location: Westbury wiltshire

Andy 

Any plans to run your Storm cam on Saturday? :)

i did think about streaming a 720p feed . i was just talking to my friend what cameras to use ...rate my chances and i will pop up a feed :):)

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Posted
  • Location: shrewsbury,shrops
  • Location: shrewsbury,shrops

Thought I was in prime position here in shrewsbury but looks as though I maybe a tad to west. Oh well got a wedding Saturday so at least I won't miss to much. Hopefully dry for Sunday as I'm off to raf cosford airshow. Enjoy the excitement and anticipation guys and girls

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

Don't worry about those N&E, worry about those of us out west who might end up witnessing a bit of rain before cells erupt further E!

 

 

oh haha im sorry guys i had already written us in the central south/southwest and the entire west of the united kingdom off for Big storms on saturday because the front seems to move through here before lunch time, which seems way too early for me. It arrives at the perfect time in Lincolnshire as predicted by many. No great surprise.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

I'm staying cautiously optimistic. We might not get the big stuff (MCS, supercells) but ingredients are there for some thunderstorms to pop up anywhere really, just hope its not this "thundery rain" ...which usually is just rain.

 

Funny how things never get pushed west at the last minute though isn't it...!

oh haha im sorry guys i had already written us in the central south/southwest and the entire west of the united kingdom off for Big storms on saturday because the front seems to move through here before lunch time, which seems way too early for me. It arrives at the perfect time in Lincolnshire as predicted by many. No great surprise.

 

Yes Lincolnshire has seemingly become thunderstorm capital of the UK over the past few years...

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Posted
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL

Funny how things never get pushed west at the last minute though isn't it...!

I share your annoyance. One day....one day, we will reap the glory. 

Edited by andy989
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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

just outside of Lincolnshire, but Peterborough seems to always cop some bigguns' too. Thats where my money is on for tomorrow personally for any potential supercell activity.

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

wasnt expecting anything in wigan anyway.  even though the NW looked the best, seemed to good to be true,

 

seen it , many many times, west gets good forecasts for storms , then ultimately the east steals all,  why should this be different    

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Posted
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL

I share your annoyance. One day....one day, we will reap the glory. 

Saying that I had a good day of storms about 2 weeks ago, just never the big stuff that makes the news, thunderstorms that is. I get plenty hammered by Atlantic shizle in the winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Floods...
  • Location: Shrewsbury

Well, even is MSC misses shrewsbury on Saturday morning, I have car and kids all day so daddy's day out will certainly be to the east somewhere. Tamworths less than an hour away.

If it's on the door step all the better but I can't see the places west of Wolverhampton getting nothing within 30 miles. All to play for.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

I must say though even though the majority of the "weather community" are adults, there are many of us teens who are very keen in meteorology. I do hugely respect the support that we get as we are by no means experienced, we love to share our ideas on the current forecast, but thank you though. Anyway in my opinion I do believe that storms will initiate in the channel and head towards SW and CS England Friday night into Saturday morning and throughout the day this risk transfers more N and E, as large amounts of instability increase through the afternoon. I did find it intriguing how on Ian Fergusson's Points West forecast that before the actual graphics, the so called bullet point headlines actually read out "severe thunderstorms" which indeed surprised me, but this is all to find out in the coming days.Virtually a ticking time bomb! ;)

Well hi again, I'm 17. No bias, I'd rather not tell the whole world. I'm not the sort of person, that you would expect to be a weather enthusiast but it has gripped me. I can never escape :p No one knows of my fascination of the weather - and that's how i like it, secret Squirrel me. I hope that i ain't upsetted anyone, my apologies. I never take note of the graphics, only of the snow variety gets me starry-eyed. Goodluck everyone :drunk::D:clap:
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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

PJB over on UKWeatherworld has posted his usual excellent analysis of the situation as it stands. Storms forming over S Wales, SW England by midnight perhaps earlier and transferring across to CS England by 3am. Great for me as all i want is to try to capture some nocturnal lightning!

 

He states that later in the day that Lincs (surprise surprise) cambridgeshire and Yorskshire should be in the firing line for some heavy thunderstorms.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Best CAPE pushed further east again on the 18z. Looks like game over for most of Wales now

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

There is already a very long line of altocumulus castellanus cloud to the NW, NNW, N, NNE and NE, here.

Hi WIll, just to clarify for you, those clouds are not Ac Cas but are Cirrocumulus clouds indicative of an approaching weather system. In this instance they are signalling the approach of a weak warm front which will introduce thicker cloud and the odd spot of rain overnight for south western regions. This warm front will traverse slowly north eastwards tomorrow, and it is behind the warm front in the warm sector that the plume will advect into tomorrow night

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Posted
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL

Best CAPE pushed further east again on the 18z. Looks like game over for most of Wales now

 

Posted Image

Whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!  Time will tell, thunderstorms aren't really known for their predictability , I doubt I'll go through the day without seeing something.  But I'm starting to think models were created for one reason and one reason only, last minute disappointment to the westerners!. 

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Some storm helicity charts for Saturday from the NMM model, highest values further N&W. 

 

post-9615-0-91266700-1402005078_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-61017500-1402005091_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-15216000-1402005104_thumb.pn

 

 

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