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Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards


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  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

    Quite jealous of my partner flying back from Antwerp Saturday evening. Should be very interesting. Deciding whether to visit my parents back in west yorks, think ill have a better chance of seeing something than in the east. Any thoughts before i make my mind up?

    If it's anything like 2012 do not bother. Head to Lincs instead.....
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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

    There is already a very long line of altocumulus castellanus cloud to the NW, NNW, N, NNE and NE, here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL

    There was no trouble, you got the wrong end of the stick :) Moving on from that fiasco, it was not a dig at you, but oh you should take initiative. You're not a 'dummy', you have decent understanding of the parameters. More so then most.It will be wet on Saturday I'd bet my life on it :crazy: London could be a breeding ground due to the UHI.

    I must say though even though the majority of the "weather community" are adults, there are many of us teens who are very keen in meteorology. I do hugely respect the support that we get as we are by no means experienced, we love to share our ideas on the current forecast, but thank you though.

     

    Anyway in my opinion I do believe that storms will initiate in the channel and head towards SW and CS England Friday night into Saturday morning and throughout the day this risk transfers more N and E, as large amounts of instability increase through the afternoon. I did find it intriguing how on Ian Fergusson's Points West forecast that before the actual graphics, the so called bullet point headlines actually read out "severe thunderstorms" which indeed surprised me, but this is all to find out in the coming days.

    Virtually a ticking time bomb! ;)

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    If you take in to account the NMM, surely somewhere is going to cop it bad?!

    Eye candy only, it just surprised me to see it upgrade a tad more..

    post-15177-0-37727900-1401999634_thumb.ppost-15177-0-42711200-1401999917_thumb.ppost-15177-0-92640900-1401999961_thumb.ppost-15177-0-79480600-1401999983_thumb.ppost-15177-0-30880400-1402000014_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Hull

    If it's anything like 2012 do not bother. Head to Lincs instead.....

    Oh it was Fantastic, i was in hull watching the storms head over the Humber. Great structure etc.

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    Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

    The best chance for you will be Friday night before the cold front moves through as this will push the real juicy thundery air away with it. It is not annoying to ask these questions, please feel free too, although there are far more skilled forecasters on here than myself. It is hard to predict exactly where storms will materialise either, although I can give my thoughts on what current models are indicating.

    What are your thoughts on this one. If you are chasing you got any idea where the sweet spots will be.
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    Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Lightning, Tornado, Hurricane, Heatwave
  • Location: Macclesfield, Cheshire

    In the Macclesfield area on Saturday with access to a car, which after seeing the forecast has been fuelled up. Any spots you recommend I head towards in my area to catch the storms roll in? Was thinking Mow Cop between Congleton and Stoke, as its the highest point with the clearest view for miles around?

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    In the Macclesfield area on Saturday with access to a car, which after seeing the forecast has been fuelled up. Any spots you recommend I head towards in my area to catch the storms roll in? Was thinking Mow Cop between Congleton and Stoke, as its the highest point with the clearest view for miles around?

     

    Yes, you can park up on the road behind the actual folly (there's a couple of lay-by viewing points). Also, if you want to get out the car and go for a bit of a walk, maybe cloud end just outside Congleton (the weird shaped dark coloured hill that juts out of the landscape).

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    Posted
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire

    Oh it was Fantastic, i was in hull watching the storms head over the Humber. Great structure etc.

    Indeed.

     

    I was sat round the back of work watching the line of storms heading NE through Lincolnshire, and to be honest, it was quite interesting. Lots of huge anvils and the like.

     

    The potential setup for Saturday is nearly identical. I'd aim for the Newark / Vale of Belvoir area and choose which way to go..

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    Posted
  • Location: NW Wales
  • Location: NW Wales

    At the moment, I seem to be too far west. But never say never when it comes to this kind of setup.  BBQ or no BBQ, that is the question. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

    I know I said I wouldn't look at any charts until tomorrow, well I lied, I couldn't help myself. ;)

    I've only had a quick glance over though, but from what I'm seeing I think it will be a case of overnight thundery rain fragmenting into thunderstorms as the two airmasses collide over Central England.

    The thundery rain for western areas overnight Friday and more especially the early hours of Saturday morning in association with the cold front;

    Posted Imageimage.jpg

    MUCAPE building over the West Country and CS England but nothing too notable at this stage, hence thundery rain rather than storms;

    Posted Imageimage.jpg

    As we break into daylight on Saturday and the plume really gets established over England especially;

    Posted Imageimage.jpg

    the cold front of thundery rain will begin to fragment into thunderstorms and as the day progresses, severe thunderstorms;

    Posted Imageimage.jpg

    The red circle the reminants of the thundery rain from overnight with ripe thunderstorm development on the western boarder of the two airmasses, around the black area. Impossible to predict the exact locations of favouribility, at a rough guess, I would be happy if I was anywhere within say Bristol - Crewe - Hull - Reading - Weymouth - Bristol.

    Roughly the western extent of SBCAPE values plus the eastern extent of the cold front:

    Posted Imageimage.jpg

    West of the welsh border and you'll probably be in the fresher, more stable airmass and east or north of the core of the plume and you'll probably struggle to ignite any instability.

    Anyway, that'll probably all change again tomorrow so for now, we can all grasp a little bit of excitement as we all have a chance still.

    So what's the lingo for Scotland currently then?? Will there be good storms??

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    At the moment, I seem to be too far west. But never say never when it comes to this kind of setup.  BBQ or no BBQ, that is the question. 

     

    Yes GFS 12z seems to have shifted the highest CAPE further east to my disappointment. Certainly not as stellar as the 6z. Hope it can bull back west slightly but once a shift east occurs, it doesn't normally correct the other way. My main fear is that best potential heating wise won't be realised here as the front pushes east too early in the day. Que sera.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shanklin, Isle of Wight
  • Location: Shanklin, Isle of Wight

    How is the Isle of Wight going to do for storms on Saturday?

    It isn't looking too good for Saturday really. If anything kicks off here I would expect it to be overnight on Friday and maybe into the morning on Saturday. Any time between 6pm and 9am could possibly see something.........possibly!

    Edited by Jamie R
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind, storms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne

    So what's the lingo for Scotland currently then?? Will there be good storms??

    What about the Isle of Wight??
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    Posted
  • Location: East Hull, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and stormy.
  • Location: East Hull, East Yorkshire

    It isn't looking too good for Saturday really. If anything kicks off here I would expect it to be overnight on Friday and maybe into the morning on Saturday. Any time between 9pm and 9am could possibly see something.........possibly!

     

     

     

    Just checked out your site, nice work Jamie

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    Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

    Evening peeps just popped on to catch up on what people are saying about Friday/Saturdays weather

    As someone from Bristol I know all to well from experience what its like when it comes to thunderstorms and so do others as posted by other Bristol people or people not to far away.

    Bristol does very poor what ever the set up and as someone who loves this kind of weather its very annoying when nothing happens but at the same time I think but I knew nothing would anyway but why do I still get excited about the prospect of seeing something.

    Because i cant help it and I'm a fan of storms anything that suggests I might get something gets me excited even though I got more chance of seeing iceburgs in the desert.

    I am excited about the weekends weather hard not to but a higher % of me is thinking it will be the same old story will get silch here so plan on staying away from charts etc and letting mother nature do her thing and if I get something happy days if not no big deal used to it.

    Anyhow the main reason I came on is to share a news article which is in today's Bristol Evening Post in regards to Saturdays weather.

    It reads.

    Extreme weather due to hit this weekend.

    Saturday is forecast to be a wash out as an extreme weather front will virtually hit all of the Uk

    The Met Office weather warning States Heavy thundery rain is expected to affect parts of England(not Bristol lol)Wales and southern Scotland.

    The public should be aware of potential flooding due to the intensity of the storms.

    (I actually lol'd at this bit!)The south west could be rocked by Monsoon conditions.

    The rain is expected to be caused by warm humid air being pulled northwards from France late on Friday and during Saturday.

    This will meet cooler air triggering potentially violent thunderstorms.

    Again as someone from Bristol this also made me laugh.

    It continues with at least it will be warm and temps around 19 degrees.

    I know it sounds like I'm not even giving things a chance but ive lived here all my life and ever since the 80's and 90's things have just gone down hill.

    I really hope something hits here I'll be well happy but I got to see it realistically.

    I wish everyone the best of luck and I hope you get something and if you do enjoy it post epics and videos will be good to see.

    Ok well I guess all we can do is wait and see what happens good luck all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

    What about the Isle of Wight??

    Since I'm nice you can have some lightning, just some. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7JRGICRQhM  this is what worries me as a steward dealing with scenes like this again..

    Andy 

    Any plans to run your Storm cam on Saturday? :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    What are your thoughts on this one. If you are chasing you got any idea where the sweet spots will be.

     

    I wouldn't normally pick out a sweet spot for chasing until just before I am setting off as forecasts change by the hour. On current charts I would say the best spots for overnight lightning would be the western portion of CS England during the early hours of tomorrow morning. Then, looking at Saturday itself I would say the best chance for severe thunderstorms to be around the N.Cambridgeshire/Leicestershire/S.Lincolnshire area around the middle of the day and onto East Anglia in the evening.

     

    However, if these charts we are seeing actually come off then storm activity could occur anywhere, with the risks transferring east with time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    Going to wait until Friday evening or early saturday morning before making any decisions as to where i need to place myself or not but i'm a tad excited as usual, always am with a sniff of a storm coming.

     

    Good luck all .

     

     

    Early in the day looks abit naff for us along the eastern side, however as the day progresses the storms will push northeastwards hopefully not dying out in the process. I'm going to chase from York 12pm onwards. Hope you see something!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

    Always a pretty good sign, humidity cranking up a notch...countdown is progressive :)Still i think it's going to be case of radar watch right up until the last moment or should things KO accordingly (Kick off.) - tis looking promising if not encouraging for at least some of natures fireworks at some stage this weekend.Good luck all.

    Yes, radar watching for me later tomorrow I think. I'm pretty sure it was altocumulus castellanus cloud if rather misty and not very pronounced.

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

    is the cold front moving through a little quicker than previously anticipated? i worry too for those up north and east it will arrive too early and not give time for max heating

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