Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[William Grimsley]

Thanks for backing me up guys. I certainly don't need any trouble at this current moment in my educational life.

[Tom Jarvis]

May go out chasing on Saturday what would be the place to go in my area??

[Homerr]

I use both to be honest

Thanks!

[Freddie123]

Hi Andy, just watched Fergie's forecast, it's already on facebook so have a look everyone. We're lucky to have him as our regional tv forecaster

 

Yes we are lucky indeed. Quite a forecast from him mentioning "dangerous", not a regular word mentioned with Thunderstorms / Thundery downpours.

[Robbie Garrett]

It's been 16-17 years since I last heard booming thunder and lightning from an MCS, let's hope that end comes very soon. I am sure it's been that long here in London.  Those all nighters we used to get were amazing. 

[Liam J]

Which winds are best to look at to work out how these storms may move? Is it 300hPa or 500?

 

MO and BBC don't have a lot for here but hopeful!

Hi Homerr, could you pop your location onto your profile just so we all know where you're reporting from. Thanks 

Edited June 5, 2014 by Liam J

[Mapantz]

I'm not counting any chickens yet but the early stages of the event coincide with a party I'm going to, I have a two mile walk back home around 2 or 3am on Saturday morning.

[the storm fisherman]

By the sounds of it I could be in for a bumpy flight home form Geneva  tomorrow flying back into Bristol mid afternoon

should get some nice views of the thunder heads going up over France.

[andy989]

It's been 16-17 years since I last heard booming thunder and lightning from an MCS, let's hope that end comes very soon. I am sure it's been that long here in London.  Those all nighters we used to get were amazing. 

I only remember all nighters occurring when I was a child, about 10 years old. I'm 25 now so about 15 years ago. However last June I was in Florida and the most intense night-long thunderstorm(s) passed right over head. I didnt get a wink of sleep as I was up watching it. Constant flashes and endless booms. The dream thunderstorm. I've never experienced a supercell, we missed out here in June 2012.  

[stainesbloke]

It's been 16-17 years since I last heard booming thunder and lightning from an MCS, let's hope that end comes very soon. I am sure it's been that long here in London.  Those all nighters we used to get were amazing.

Definitely seems that long since London has had decent overnight storms. Have some fantastic memories. Hoping Sat gives us the goods lol...looking like a day event rather than a night one though to my amateur eyes.

[saint]

The potential does extend beyond Saturday, so if some areas miss out on a lot of action, there could be something for them on possibly Monday.

[Flipflop]

Going to wait until Friday evening or early saturday morning before making any decisions as to where i need to place myself or not but i'm a tad excited as usual, always am with a sniff of a storm coming.

 

Good luck all .

[AWD]

I know I said I wouldn't look at any charts until tomorrow, well I lied, I couldn't help myself.

I've only had a quick glance over though, but from what I'm seeing I think it will be a case of overnight thundery rain fragmenting into thunderstorms as the two airmasses collide over Central England.

The thundery rain for western areas overnight Friday and more especially the early hours of Saturday morning in association with the cold front;

MUCAPE building over the West Country and CS England but nothing too notable at this stage, hence thundery rain rather than storms;

As we break into daylight on Saturday and the plume really gets established over England especially;

the cold front of thundery rain will begin to fragment into thunderstorms and as the day progresses, severe thunderstorms;

The red circle the reminants of the thundery rain from overnight with ripe thunderstorm development on the western boarder of the two airmasses, around the black area. Impossible to predict the exact locations of favouribility, at a rough guess, I would be happy if I was anywhere within say Bristol - Crewe - Hull - Reading - Weymouth - Bristol.

Roughly the western extent of SBCAPE values plus the eastern extent of the cold front:

West of the welsh border and you'll probably be in the fresher, more stable airmass and east or north of the core of the plume and you'll probably struggle to ignite any instability.

Anyway, that'll probably all change again tomorrow so for now, we can all grasp a little bit of excitement as we all have a chance still.

[Andy Pepler]

i feel for those who are working at the massive huge outside events ..festivals ectect ..its goin to be a dodgy weekend for them...

[Mokidugway]

i feel for those who are working at the massive huge outside events ..festivals ectect ..its goin to be a dodgy weekend for them...

Glastonbury 2005 springs to mind !!!....

[PolarWarsaw]

I know I said I wouldn't look at any charts until tomorrow, well I lied, I couldn't help myself.

I've only had a quick glance over though, but from what I'm seeing I think it will be a case of overnight thundery rain fragmenting into thunderstorms as the two airmasses collide over Central England.

The thundery rain for western areas overnight Friday and more especially the early hours of Saturday morning in association with the cold front;

image.jpg

MUCAPE building over the West Country and CS England but nothing too notable at this stage, hence thundery rain rather than storms;

image.jpg

As we break into daylight on Saturday and the plume really gets established over England especially;

image.jpg

the cold front of thundery rain will begin to fragment into thunderstorms and as the day progresses, severe thunderstorms;

image.jpg

The red circle the reminants of the thundery rain from overnight with ripe thunderstorm development on the western boarder of the two airmasses, around the black area. Impossible to predict the exact locations of favouribility, at a rough guess, I would be happy if I was anywhere within say Bristol - Crewe - Hull - Reading - Weymouth - Bristol.

Roughly the western extent of SBCAPE values plus the eastern extent of the cold front:

image.jpg

West of the welsh border and you'll probably be in the fresher, more stable airmass and east or north of the core of the plume and you'll probably struggle to ignite any instability.

Anyway, that'll probably all change again tomorrow so for now, we can all grasp a little bit of excitement as we all have a chance still.

 

Juding by that we've gone from being in the core of the prime zone to being inside it by about 40 miles. Don't like the sound of that, already means the slip east has started.

[Paul]

Just in case you missed it yesterday, we have a new (free) storm radar app for Android with radar and lightning detection updated every 15 minutes

 

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.netweather.stormradar

 

For those not on android, this is available on the website too:

 

Radar:

http://www.netweather.tv/radar

 

And lightning detection:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

[ChezWeather]

Storms will develop around the Welsh border area and track NE building in size and severity while crossing the Midlands/Lincolnshire and South Midlands/Norfolk.

 

Thats my take on the situation for Saturday

 

Obviously im no expert, this is just how i think things will happen!  

[Evening thunder]

I do get the impression the best action will develop more north of here through Saturday, at least the surface based stuff. We may get something here but probably not as much potential for it to be strong, as it has had less chance to develop closer to the south coast, but who knows.

 

It would be as per usual if home managed a decent light display from storms tomorrow night into Saturday, whereas here Egham manages to miss out on Saturday, though Friday night is perhaps the one time I may not want storms here, but I may be unable to chase for most of Saturday typically.

[Nick123]

How is the Isle of Wight going to do for storms on Saturday?

[Hodgheg]

Quite jealous of my partner flying back from Antwerp Saturday evening. Should be very interesting. Deciding whether to visit my parents back in west yorks, think ill have a better chance of seeing something than in the east. Any thoughts before i make my mind up?

[William Grimsley]

I do get the impression the best action will develop more north of here through Saturday, at least the surface based stuff. We may get something here but probably not as much potential for it to be strong, as it has had less chance to develop closer to the south coast, but who knows.

 

It would be as per usual if home managed a decent light display from storms tomorrow night into Saturday, whereas here Egham manages to miss out on Saturday, though Friday night is perhaps the one time I may not want storms here, but I may be unable to chase for most of Saturday typically.

Why not Friday Night, Sam?

Edited June 5, 2014 by William Grimsley

[Daniel*]

Thanks for backing me up guys. I certainly don't need any trouble at this current moment in my educational life.

There was no trouble, you got the wrong end of the stick Moving on from that fiasco, it was not a dig at you, but oh you should take initiative. You're not a 'dummy', you have decent understanding of the parameters. More so then most.It will be wet on Saturday I'd bet my life on it London could be a breeding ground due to the UHI.

[Andy Pepler]

Glastonbury 2005 springs to mind !!!....

i was working in the dance village in 05 ..it was hell on earth fun thou ..that mcs was a whopper

[Weather-history]

ECM 12z goes for an inch of rain for Saturday PM for Manchester.