Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[Mapantz]

I thought MLCAPE was more widespread than SBCAPE in these plume events? Not seen one MLCAPE chart posted here yet..

Posted here this morning Convective; http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80454-convective-storm-discussion-28th-may-2014-onwards/page-23#entry2981316

[Harry]

On the PPN- Remember, thunderstorms are very hit and miss, so PPN charts aren't completely reliable in telling you where a storm 'could be'

 

Indeed - but they are usually good, if not in terms of intensity/totals, at picking out where precip will occur. Ive seen it though time and time again where what the models are currently hinting at has in fact played out, hence why I am perhaps more than most a little bit preoccupied with those charts.

[Marcus_surfer]

Do we have a time when all these heavy showers and storms are expected to hit ? Friday night or Saturday morning?

[Bobby]

The BBC forecast certainly looks like the ECM take with central and western areas getting the main mention. Perhaps cloud cover causing problems further E? Who knows, a complicated set up as usual. Almost anywhere across GB has potential for getting some good storms as things stand.

 

Do we have a time when all these heavy showers and storms are expected to hit ? Friday night or Saturday morning?

 

Looks like some storms could break out across our area Friday evening, then in the early hours something more significant moving up from the S. As things stand!

Edited June 5, 2014 by Bobby

[BrickFielder]

Saturday just coming into range for the high resolution models.

 

Looks a bit like an MCS.

 

Surface high isle of wight in response to surface low towards exeter ?

Veering winds in the lowest level further north.

 

 

Possible 850hpa trough, temperature drop , breaking a cap ?

 

Still not enough details. Still a lot can change.

 

 

 

 

[A.J]

Posted here this morning Convective; http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80454-convective-storm-discussion-28th-may-2014-onwards/page-23#entry2981316

I also posted my thoughts on elevated storms yesterday (or the day before, I can't remember which)

 

Further up on this page is an excellent post by samadamsuk on CIN, well worth reading again if you haven't already

 

To add to his post, CIN is the amount of capping, a negative CIN means low to strong capping depending on the negative value. Folks associate strong capping with fine weather with convective cloud unable to rise. In this case it actually bodes well for saturday as in the morning there will be strong capping in place to the east of the advancing cold front, this is the equivelant of putting a lid on a pressure cooker. During the afternoon, the cap will start to erode,meaning the lid to the 'pressure cooker' of lower level moist air and energy being whipped off allowing the potential for explosive convection and strong thunderstorms for some lucky folk.....hope this helps.....just got back in from work so I haven't had chance to look at the hi-res modeling and skew-t charts, but I will in a bit and post up most latest thoughts

 

 

just seen BF's thoughts, and agree.....will update my thoughts after the 12z NMM rolls out around 6:30pm

Edited June 5, 2014 by ajpoolshark

[Ben Sainsbury]

For people moaning about the highest CAPE may not be in your area. The severity of storms will be highest in that area but it doesn't mean that thunderstorms can't form in lower CAPE areas, just something to bear in mind.

[vladthemert]

newspaper today there was nice funnel in market rasen yesterday

 

 

http://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/Tornado-like-funnel-clouds-spotted-Lincolnshire/story-21193613-detail/story.html

[Ben Sainsbury]

Do we have a time when all these heavy showers and storms are expected to hit ? Friday night or Saturday morning?

For us westerners, well I think Saturday morning? That's what Ian Fergusson said on his twitter anyway.

 

Ian Fergusson tweet: "Any chance of us missing the rain & thunder on Sat Ian?" Currently looks potentially v wet Sat AM. Clearance/detail uncertain.

Edited June 5, 2014 by Ben Sainsbury

[Buriedundersnow]

cracking pic of a big storm in Denver in the states yesterday lets hope come Saturday some of us will see a storm like this roll through

 

[Methuselah]

I'm quite sure that I'll miss it all!

[Convective]

Posted here this morning Convective; http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80454-convective-storm-discussion-28th-may-2014-onwards/page-23#entry2981316

 

Nice one, looks pretty good almost anywhere

 

I certainly ain't paying the slightest bit of attention to what the MetO are saying after their beautiful performance last month.. I understand that these set ups are hard to forecast but that was a bit of a bugger up.

Edited June 5, 2014 by Convective

[Andy Bown]

This post may get lost within the pages of will it/won't it posts but anyway!

 

A time to watch will be 4am-6am on Saturday morning anywhere within region of the front(s) or trough(s) as the sun rising with its' obvious injection of warmth into an already juicy atmosphere will have an impact on the development of thundery showers/storms. It's happened in past events and has even occurred a few times this year so far although possibly without them being major.

 

Edit ; and relying on precipitation predictions is almost a waste of time this far out, just look how wrong they were on Tuesday evening for what happened yesterday!!

Edited June 5, 2014 by Andy Bown

[robt]

newspaper today there was nice funnel in market rasen yesterday

 

 

http://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/Tornado-like-funnel-clouds-spotted-Lincolnshire/story-21193613-detail/story.html

 

 

Funnel in Kirkby-In-Ashfield as well yesterday

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=883661671650924

[William Grimsley]

Meto updating the warnings page, still with low confidence in the forecast and which areas will see the worst of the weather.  

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1401922800

That's wrong. I'm not included and look at the CAPE forecast for me.

[A.J]

This post may get lost within the pages of will it/won't it posts but anyway!

 

A time to watch will be 4am-6am on Saturday morning anywhere within region of the front(s) or trough(s) as the sun rising with its' obvious injection of warmth into an already juicy atmosphere will have an impact on the development of thundery showers/storms. It's happened in past events and has even occurred a few times this year so far although possibly without them being major.

 

Edit ; and relying on precipitation predictions is almost a waste of time this far out, just look how wrong they were on Tuesday evening for what happened yesterday!!

solid post Andy....elevated storms will also be a player tomorrow overnight and into the early hours of saturday morning

[Gordon Webb]

I'm quite sure that I'll miss it all!

 

I'm hope that I do

 

even If I get one storm and it only lasts 1 hour that's far too much for me , used to hide in closet but family concerned that In a very small confined space with all that heat I might do myself harm

[William Grimsley]

Just watched the latest BBC Weather Forecast and showed more action towards the western side of the UK rather than the E. It's looking like eastern people are getting a little overexcited right now.

[Eskimo]

Just watched the latest BBC Weather Forecast and showed more action towards the western side of the UK rather than the E. It's looking like eastern people are getting a little overexcited right now.

I always trust the BBC weather graphics.- Said no one ever. 

Edited June 5, 2014 by PerfectStorm

[Dancerwithwings]

Funnel in Kirkby-In-Ashfield as well yesterday

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=883661671650924

I've never seen anything that even resembles a funnel cloud in the UK, even a number of years ago we had that big one here in Birmingham,

i was two miles from it and guess what?.... i didn't see a thing lol!

 

I'll have my own little one here on Net Weather instead F minus 10

Edited June 5, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[TwisterGirl81]

Just watched the latest BBC Weather Forecast and showed more action towards the western side of the UK rather than the E. It's looking like eastern people are getting a little overexcited right now.

 

Indeed William, ha ha lol

 

Bring it on.....

 

Lets just all have one big thunderstorm

Edited June 5, 2014 by TwisterGirl81

[jello]

Local weather company here in Northern Ireland. Have warning out for heavy rain/thunderstorms on Saturday for Eastern parts of Northern Ireland, although does say subject to changes.

 

Much risk here? look at the CAPE etc and not much apart from extreme east ie metoffice warnings. thoughts?  Would love a good thunderstorm. 

 

suppose anything could happen, like on Tuesday evening here. nothing in the forecast but A small thunderstorm quickly developed over lough neagh and within a 45 minute period had intense rain, thunder and lightning, quite sizable hail and rotation which spawned a number of funnel clouds and waterspouts over lough neagh itself (few Photos attached)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 5, 2014 by jello

[Speedway Slider]

solid post Andy....elevated storms will also be a player tomorrow overnight and into the early hours of saturday morning

C'Mon....., what the difference between elevated and surface thunderstorms? Please??

[Dale Hay]

From the weather just before 1600 TOTH.

[Lauren]

I'm hope that I do

 

even If I get one storm and it only lasts 1 hour that's far too much for me , used to hide in closet but family concerned that In a very small confined space with all that heat I might do myself harm

 

In all seriousness, have you considered some type of meditation/relaxation methods to help you deal with your fear?

 

What is it that scares you exactly? If you know that then you might be able to focus on working on that aspect of it.