Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[Bobby]

Getting into range of the EURO4 now, possible storms Saturday night moving up through Wales, then more trouble brewing to the S...

 

[Mapantz]

Better and better.... I love them words

 

To more knowledgeable folk could you please explain what is CIN (Convective Inhibition) all about or even interpret whats happening in this chart below.....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=23&map=5 Cheers

 

To my limited knowledge, that is showing negative cape, something worth looking at when determining capping.

[Jo Farrow]

From Nick F's TS guide http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/29496-guide-to-uk-thunderstorms-setups/

"a storm complex may develop called a Mesoscale Convective System or MCS which is an area of deep convective cloud that has an anvil which can be several hundred kms across in diameter". which may explain less isol. "thunderstorm" and more use of heavy thundery rain, without the scare factor

 

with the 18C WBPT air coming all the way up from N.Africa, one Met Office model is showing signs of a MCS -like cluster, as 06Z drops just into the last frame of their highest resolution model.

Still uncertainty about whether all this potential will release and having a wide area covered by the Yellow warning at this stage, is fair enough for the general public and their weekend plans. 

[Bobby]

Better and better.... I love them words

 

To more knowledgeable folk could you please explain what is CIN (Convective Inhibition) all about or even interpret whats happening in this chart below.....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=23&map=5 Cheers

 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/306/

 

CINH (Convective Inhibition in units of Joules per kilogram) is anti-CAPE (negative CAPE) in the lower troposphere. This is the region where a parcel of air if raised from the lower PBL would sink back down again. Another term for CINH is a capping layer. The capping layer must be broken before lower PBL based lifting is able to move into the +CAPE region of a sounding and develop into deep convection.

 

Amount of capping basically, but that won't last long as we move through Saturday

[Snowshine]

The highest CAPE values are more widespread than what the previous GFS runs show, especially in the Midlands, East & SW England, but the maximum LI is still -4 for most places in the most recent run, not quite high enough to bring "The worst hailstorms in 170 years". The timing of the precipitation may not be so good for all places either.

[summer blizzard]

From Nick F's TS guide http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/29496-guide-to-uk-thunderstorms-setups/

"a storm complex may develop called a Mesoscale Convective System or MCS which is an area of deep convective cloud that has an anvil which can be several hundred kms across in diameter". which may explain less isol. "thunderstorm" and more use of heavy thundery rain, without the scare factor

 

with the 18C WBPT air coming all the way up from N.Africa, one Met Office model is showing signs of a MCS -like cluster, as 06Z drops just into the last frame of their highest resolution model.

Still uncertainty about whether all this potential will release and having a wide area covered by the Yellow warning at this stage, is fair enough for the general public and their weekend plans. 

 

Hi Jo..

 

Just wondering if the Met Office are concerned about the potential for flash flooding in the north west and even the potential for some tornadic events further south. 

[Harry]

Charts really not keen on giving the SE much action at all - perhaps my early concerns are seeming increasingly justified?

 

Another 48 hours to go as yet though

[stainesbloke]

Exciting and nerve-wracking thunderstorm potential building nicely, many parameters showing a possibly memorable event. My main concern is too much clag inhibiting convection, we need some clear air ahead of the cold front to allow decent heating. So it could all go bust but the potential is the best for some time, particularly in the SE.

[Dancerwithwings]

To my limited knowledge, that is showing negative cape, something worth looking at when determining capping.

 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/306/

 

CINH (Convective Inhibition in units of Joules per kilogram) is anti-CAPE (negative CAPE) in the lower troposphere. This is the region where a parcel of air if raised from the lower PBL would sink back down again. Another term for CINH is a capping layer. The capping layer must be broken before lower PBL based lifting is able to move into the +CAPE region of a sounding and develop into deep convection.

 

Amount of capping basically, but that won't last long as we move through Saturday

 We don't like CIN here, anything that's anti-cape is not good...So soon as the sun gets going that'll diminish..... Cheers, to both of you

[Harry]

Exciting and nerve-wracking thunderstorm potential building nicely, many parameters showing a possibly memorable event. My main concern is too much clag inhibiting convection, we need some clear air ahead of the cold front to allow decent heating. So it could all go bust but the potential is the best for some time, particularly in the SE.

 

Then why little precip being shown on the models?

[ancientsolar]

Looking at the charts, Friday-Tuesday could be a lot of fun.. for storm chasers and for the rest of us folk chatting and discussing.. may'be searching live streaming cameras or setting up our own! Or just looking out our windows.. loving it!I think the unpredictability of the weather we have is what keeps us going.  

[Jo Farrow]

Hi Jo..

 

Just wondering if the Met Office are concerned about the potential for flash flooding in the north west and even the potential for some tornadic events further south. 

You won't draw the MO on tornadoes and they will want another cycle of the model run to see into Saturday day before firming up on areas. Their model has a shower line over the NW around 8am, whereas the NMM has it well off in the North Sea

[Gordon Webb]

Exciting and nerve-wracking thunderstorm potential building nicely, many parameters showing a possibly memorable event. My main concern is too much clag inhibiting convection, we need some clear air ahead of the cold front to allow decent heating. So it could all go bust but the potential is the best for some time, particularly in the SE.

 

that is a concern too much cloud about especially if the front gets in early and by the met having devon and cornwall in the clear you'd infer that the front is already making inroads

[saint]

On the PPN- Remember, thunderstorms are very hit and miss, so PPN charts aren't completely reliable in telling you where a storm 'could be'

[samadamsuk]

CIN is good for bottling up the juice underneath - it can either be eroded by parcels trying to break the cap - often why cumulus clouds becone agitated and the overturning eventualy breaks through, or by synoptic lifting (as dry air cools quicker at the dry adiabatic rate) - short wave troughs moving across generaly synopticaly lift the air for this process. Often see situations in the states where the cap is only broken in certain places, at which point the moisture and heat have pooled nicely underneath, and if the ballance is right the supercells will stay isolated and draw this bottled up air from miles around - I believe this process was part of the famous isolated Hamstead Heath storm that broke the cap over london, and stayed isolated in 1974.

 

Looking good for satuday! - anyone have any links to forecasted hodographs ?

 

Cheers, Sam

[Bobby]

High-res ECM precip, looks pretty good for here... pfft don't get hopes up now.

 

   

 

Sat 3am, Sat 12pm, Sat 3pm

[ancientsolar]

High-res ECM precip, looks pretty good for here... pfft don't get hopes up now.

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifScreenshot - 050614 - 13:52:08.png   http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifScreenshot - 050614 - 13:53:06.png  http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifScreenshot - 050614 - 13:56:15.png

 

Sat 3am, Sat 12pm, Sat 3pm

Thanks bobby, now i'm not going to sleep Friday night. 

[Convective]

I thought MLCAPE was more widespread than SBCAPE in these plume events? Not seen one MLCAPE chart posted here yet..

Edited June 5, 2014 by Convective

[Staffordshire]

I have one word...

Lincolnshire.

[Gordon Webb]

High-res ECM precip, looks pretty good for here... pfft don't get hopes up now.

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifScreenshot - 050614 - 13:52:08.png   http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifScreenshot - 050614 - 13:53:06.png  http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifScreenshot - 050614 - 13:56:15.png

 

Sat 3am, Sat 12pm, Sat 3pm

 

if the rain and cloud is already this far in by 3am then sunshine in the morning may be at a premium althoguh it does tie in wiht my local met office forecast for the time period

[Gael_Force]

CIN is good for bottling up the juice underneath - it can either be eroded by parcels trying to break the cap - often why cumulus clouds becone agitated and the overturning eventualy breaks through, or by synoptic lifting (as dry air cools quicker at the dry adiabatic rate) - short wave troughs moving across generaly synopticaly lift the air for this process. Often see situations in the states where the cap is only broken in certain places, at which point the moisture and heat have pooled nicely underneath, and if the ballance is right the supercells will stay isolated and draw this bottled up air from miles around - I believe this process was part of the famous isolated Hamstead Heath storm that broke the cap over london, and stayed isolated in 1974.

 

Looking good for satuday! - anyone have any links to forecasted hodographs ?

 

Cheers, Sam

 

Try this site for available soundings.

 

 

http://www.meteokempen.be/soundings.html

[Summer Sun]

This is how the beeb currently see things with central and western areas seeing some torrential downpours though one or two showers may break out in the east where ever you are though it will be a very humid day

 

 

Still humid for inland areas on Sunday but less showers

 

Edited June 5, 2014 by Summer Sun

[ChezWeather]

In my opinion,anyone in the midlands / east coast has a great chance of seeing something...

Personally i think il be heading towards Newark and Sleaford.

[Azazel]

I have one word...Lincolnshire.

 

this.

[Dami]

At lot of forecasts still look good for my area, then I had a look at MetO (for saturday)

 

Even although I'm in the yellow warning area they have given me :- (wait for it)

 

light rain http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/wallbash.gif