Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[BrickFielder]

Not sure I would totally agree with the suggestion that the Met Office are useless at forecasting thundery outbreaks.

I think there have been significant improvements, but convective forecasting is difficult and they get it wrong sometimes. As do I for that matter and we are totally reliant on model output.

[SnowJoke]

Not sure I would totally agree with the suggestion that the Met Office are useless at forecasting thundery outbreaks.

I think there have been significant improvements, but convective forecasting is difficult and they get it wrong sometimes. As do I for that matter and we are totally reliant on model output.

 

I agree, the Met Office do tend to pick up on the trend if any thundery activity is due, however the forecasts on the BBC tend to vary a lot depending on who is presenting. Especially when it comes to terminology and language that is used, the majority of forecasters use the term thundery rain or heavy possibly thundery showers these days. I'm pretty sure it's down to blanket formatting and the nanny state principal. Most people are pretty clueless when it comes to weather terminology and understanding, that's why they removed isobar charts from TV broadcasts as most people had no idea what they meant. I think if they started mentioning severe, super cells a possibility in broadcasts most of the nation would go into panic mode for the forthcoming apocalypse.

[Love Snow]

Leeds will miss out we always do so not getting to excited yet

[shaky]

Wrf nmm shows some serious cape values from the south east and across to north west England all day saturday!!should be a very explosive day!!and also to add there will be dewpoints of between 19 and 21 degrees widely in those areas!!jheez!!

Edited June 5, 2014 by shaky

[Dancerwithwings]

That's what he said, 'nasty'........ I get told by some that I am a misery when I say there are storms on the way, it's like Christmas can't wait for it all to start happening. I missed the storms here on Merseyside the other week, hopefully Saturday will deliver

Not by us,here on N/W "misery" NEVER!...."can't wait for it all to start happening" I'm with you on that one

[Jan]

I agree, the Met Office do tend to pick up on the trend if any thundery activity is due, however the forecasts on the BBC tend to vary a lot depending on who is presenting. Especially when it comes to terminology and language that is used, the majority of forecasters use the term thundery rain or heavy possibly thundery showers these days. I'm pretty sure it's down to blanket formatting and the nanny state principal. Most people are pretty clueless when it comes to weather terminology and understanding, that's why they removed isobar charts from TV broadcasts as most people had no idea what they meant. I think if they started mentioning severe, super cells a possibility in broadcasts most of the nation would go into panic mode for the forthcoming apocalypse.

Some people only pick up on a certain word in a forecast, like it is getting warmer this weekend, they don't listen to the detail like us weather freaks. Its the same in winter when snow is forecast for the Scottish mountains, they hear 'snow' and dash out and buy snow shovels and soup when they live as far as you can get from the Highlands

[Bobby]

Does anyone remember what has happened the last three or four times that "thundery rain" has been forecasted? Let's just say I can't tell much difference between regular British drizzle and "thundery rain"...

 

I'm confident there will be more than 'thundery rain' (whatever that means exactly).... some proper big, fat, juicy, thunderstorms surely with all these ingredients.

 

This is roughly where I think the best places are, anywhere in the yellow could see a good storm but the red area being the prime spot for some severe weather. It really does look similar to June 28th 2012, that will take some topping though.

 

Edited June 5, 2014 by Bobby

[Dancerwithwings]

Wrf nmm shows some serious cape values from the south east and across to north west England all day saturday!!should be a very explosive day!!and also to add there will be dewpoints of between 19 and 21 degrees widely in those areas!!jheez!!

WOW

 

[radiohead]

06Z WRF-NMM is showing up to 3,000 J/kg for 6pm Saturday...

[Jan]

I'm confident there will be more than 'thundery rain' (whatever that means exactly).... some proper big, fat, juicy, thunderstorms surely with all these ingredients.

 

This is roughly where I think the best places are, anywhere in the yellow could see a good storm but the red area being the prime spot for some severe weather. It really does look similar to June 28th 2012, that will take some topping though.

 

storm.png

 

I'm confident there will be more than 'thundery rain' (whatever that means exactly).... some proper big, fat, juicy, thunderstorms surely with all these ingredients.

 

This is roughly where I think the best places are, anywhere in the yellow could see a good storm but the red area being the prime spot for some severe weather. It really does look similar to June 28th 2012, that will take some topping though.

 

storm.png

I am delaying my journey to Shropshire until Saturday and hopefully I can incorporate a chase on the way

[Chris.R]

That's what he said, 'nasty'........ I get told by some that I am a misery when I say there are storms on the way, it's like Christmas can't wait for it all to start happening. I missed the storms here on Merseyside the other week, hopefully Saturday will deliver

I'm exactly the same:-) 

I'm quite optimistic about Saturday, CAPE may not be as high as in other parts, but it is still amazing and the best in a long while. Hoping for a night storm sometime, haven't had one of them in 5 years.

Shame you missed the Storms the other week, they were really good, 2 strikes a minute at one point, best in 4 years.

[Jan]

I'm exactly the same:-) 

I'm quite optimistic about Saturday, CAPE may not be as high as in other parts, but it is still amazing and the best in a long while. Hoping for a night storm sometime, haven't had one of them in 5 years.

Shame you missed the Storms the other week, they were really good, 2 strikes a minute at one point, best in 4 years.

I believe so, I was working and couldn't get outside. Sheer torture as I could hear it all going on, like a kid in a sweet shop but not allowed to eat the sweets.

[TwisterGirl81]

Updated warning area for the met office for Saturday removes Devon and Cornwall along with parts of west Wales

 

 

Typical!  I really hope that we do get some severe thunderstorms down here

[Bobby]

With all the talk of Saturday there's a risk of storms tomorrow evening too, mainly for the SW

 

 

 

Saturday is looking more and more crazy all the time!

 

[Dancerwithwings]

WOW

 

 

Just too add to the CAPE, some serious PPN for parts of the UK Saturday! looking at this the NorthWest may get pretty wet!

 

 

You said Bobby "Saturday is looking more and more crazy all the time!"

Edited June 5, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[StormChaseUK]

We are heading into the maximum heating time of year, so if there ever was a time of year for all the elements to come together it is now.

[ChezWeather]

Banking on Lincolnshire / Notts to be the area of interest.

Looks like a good chase oppurtunity

[Gordon Webb]

Despite what all the charts show I still think a lot will be disappointed on saturday often potential and reality can be substantially different and there's still time for change

[Sainsbo]

Just too add to the CAPE, some serious PPN for parts of the UK Saturday! looking at this the NorthWest may get pretty wet!

 

 

You said Bobby "Saturday is looking more and more crazy all the time!"

 

Not only is the intensity of the precipitation looking crazy, the accumulated precip is showing over 100mm in the next 72 hours for some small areas. Really does look hit and miss, but where people do see a storm I think they'll definitely know about it!

 

Edited June 5, 2014 by Sainsbo

[Azazel]

With all the talk of Saturday there's a risk of storms tomorrow evening too, mainly for the SW

 

 

 

Saturday is looking more and more crazy all the time!

 

 

this is what i'm hoping to catch after dark. I've given up on Saturday for this location:p

[shaky]

WOW  

mate this is getting better and better each run for storm fans!!midlands looks like copping it hard at the moment aswell!!am drooling looking at these charts!!

[samadamsuk]

Hey all -

Stunning looking charts at a close time frame too! From what I can tell, the most curved hodographs move north through the country after mid day saturday, so I would imagine supercell chances and enhanced tornado threat move north with this through the day - backed winds being the culprit here - the way things stand though we have an almost usa-esque combination of parameters for saturday with superb jet support, and some serious humidity and cape. Fingers crossed!

[Mapantz]

I've managed to gain access to a 4KM resolution NMM model, should be interesting to see how that handles things.

[Dancerwithwings]

mate this is getting better and better each run for storm fans!!midlands looks like copping it hard at the moment aswell!!am drooling looking at these charts!!

Better and better.... I love them words

 

To more knowledgeable folk could you please explain what is CIN (Convective Inhibition) all about or even interpret whats happening in this chart below.....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=23&map=5 Cheers

 

Edited June 5, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[summer blizzard]

Western upslope of the Pennines is going to get seriously hit in terms of rainfall, i suspect the chances of flash flood warnings being issued for the likes of Carlisle are very high.

 

As above, tornadic activity in the gap between the warm and cold front is a possibility, though the risk is probably further south.