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Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

Jane Louise
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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

If todays rain is anything go to by then North Wales will be in with a shout of the action over the weekend.

 

Todays rain was supposed to clear here by the evening but didn't and stopped around 10pm. Anything can happen.

 

I am tempted to leave Bristol this weekend though but not sure where to go yet.

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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
Posted

....or west over Falmouth :p

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

....or west over Falmouth :p

That will be the day.... Haha.

 

Met Office forecasts downgrading to just light showers now. Could actually be a dry day here now whilst the front moves East. Looks similar to a couple of events over the last couple of years like the 28th June 2012 where explosive storms erupted over the Midlands. But still quite a bit of time for change yet.

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted

If todays rain is anything go to by then North Wales will be in with a shout of the action over the weekend.

 

Todays rain was supposed to clear here by the evening but didn't and stopped around 10pm. Anything can happen.

 

I am tempted to leave Bristol this weekend though but not sure where to go yet.

 

I must confess I'm tempted to leave my area as well

 

Shetland seems appealing

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

If todays rain is anything go to by then North Wales will be in with a shout of the action over the weekend.

 

Todays rain was supposed to clear here by the evening but didn't and stopped around 10pm. Anything can happen.

 

I am tempted to leave Bristol this weekend though but not sure where to go yet.

 

North or east will do can't see much happening here this weekend.

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NUT Accomplished

NUT

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
Posted

Got a feeling it may be a very heavy rainburst we get up at this part (Maybe a rumble of thunder but nothing severe) saturday wise but I shall be watching the threads with interest ;) (This is obviously the first major chance for some over the summer period and so early on too)

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

The late BBC forecast just actually said the words 'Severe Thunderstorms'. Very unusual.

That is a step in the right direction, they must have a strong inkling. They are usually conservative :)
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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

Don't forget to keep an eye on the MO fax charts over the next couple of days, as they will give a better indication of the progress of forecast front/trough positioning.

The 18z ones show the warm/occluded front to cross the UK Fri night/Sat morning, with a cold front coming in behind, straddling the W Midlands noon Sat. Which of these is more likely for more severe storm development?

Either way if it stays as a triple point there could be some prolonged torrential rainfall for many.

post-15172-0-68232900-1401924450_thumb.p

post-15172-0-05530700-1401924497_thumb.p

Edited by Chris K
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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Don't forget to keep an eye on the MO fax charts over the next couple of days, as they will give a better indication of the progress of forecast front/trough positioning.

The 18z ones show the warm/occluded front to cross the UK Fri night/Sat morning, with a cold front coming in behind, straddling the W Midlands noon Sat. Which of these is more likely for more severe storm development?

Either way if it stays as a triple point there could be some prolonged torrential rainfall for many.

Posted ImagePPVJ89.png

Posted ImagePPVK89.png

 

The thunder is on the cold front (extremely active front i might add). This event is a lot like the one in June 05 that caused flash floods as opposed to a Spanish Plume.

 

Posted Image

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Raidan Enthusiast

Raidan

Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL
Posted

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks Bristol does poor when it comes to storms.Maybe us Bristol lot should meet up and go somewhere where we're in agreement storms could develop.Got more chance of seeing something than if we stay here under the Bristol storm shield.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Don't forget to keep an eye on the MO fax charts over the next couple of days, as they will give a better indication of the progress of forecast front/trough positioning.

The 18z ones show the warm/occluded front to cross the UK Fri night/Sat morning, with a cold front coming in behind, straddling the W Midlands noon Sat. Which of these is more likely for more severe storm development?

Either way if it stays as a triple point there could be some prolonged torrential rainfall for many.

Posted ImagePPVJ89.png

Posted ImagePPVK89.png

The most interesting thing to me is that little black line between the warm and cold front :D

Although I'm sure that will change in due course

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Looks like SW England could see something at least tomorrow evening at Saturday morning. Nothing like E England but still good enough.

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

To be quite honest with you, I'm not going to look at the charts anymore. I'm just going to radar watch later tomorrow because these charts are driving me insane. One day it looks great for me and another day not so good. So, my saying is: "If the charts ain't look good, just watch the radar".

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xerxes Newbie

xerxes

Posted
  • Location: Alton(Hampshire)
  • Location: Alton(Hampshire)
Posted

A decent description from ChrisK regarding the triggerpoints relating to the plume.

The warm front due to arrive overnight Friday into Satuday will likely provide some good thundery activity given the instability still around into the early hours, and the high potential across N.France later on Friday.

The cold front on Saturday would appear to be when we may expect the most violent storms as the parameters across Eastern England by mid afternoon are excellent.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

Morning, GFS still keen on taking the most intense rainfall into NW England & SW Scotland on Saturday afternoon, tracking NE. Who knows how this is going to pan out! It might be a case of looking out of your window and watching the radar.... Conditions look favourable for some pretty explosive weather if it all comes together at the right time!  :bomb:

 

post-9615-0-87007800-1401952018_thumb.gipost-9615-0-70268300-1401952037_thumb.gipost-9615-0-09901800-1401952046_thumb.gi

Edited by Liam J
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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted (edited)

Don't forget to keep an eye on the MO fax charts over the next couple of days, as they will give a better indication of the progress of forecast front/trough positioning. 

 

The overnight fax charts look very encouraging with a trough forming ahead of the cold front

which strengthens while moving North and East during Saturday afternoon and evening.

 

 

 

edit..NMM CAPE/LI  for Saturday afternoon. :D

 

Edited by Cloud 10
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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

As things currently stand this is roughly where I think the most severe weather could well occur during Saturday given current available data. Torrential rainfall with embedded cells & home grown convection with a risk of MCS - especially for central and SE areas given the high CAPE & Li. 

 

I could be wrong, this is just how I see it atm.... 

 

post-9615-0-31009900-1401953427_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

The overnight fax charts look very encouraging with a trough forming ahead of the cold front

which strengthens while moving North and East during Saturday afternoon and evening.

 

Posted Imagefax60s.gifPosted Imagefax72s.gif

 

 

edit..NMM CAPE/LI  for Saturday afternoon. :D

 

Posted Imagenmmuk-6-62-0.png

my word that looks like it has upgraded from yesterday!!
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Team Jo Accomplished

Team Jo

Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
Posted

As things currently stand this is roughly where I think the most severe weather could well occur during Saturday given current available data. Torrential rainfall with embedded cells & home grown convection with a risk of MCS - especially for central and SE areas given the high CAPE & Li. 

 

I could be wrong, this is just how I see it atm.... 

 

Posted ImagemapukT.png

 

 

That'll do me Nicely!

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

As things currently stand this is roughly where I think the most severe weather could well occur during Saturday given current available data. Torrential rainfall with embedded cells & home grown convection with a risk of MCS - especially for central and SE areas given the high CAPE & Li. 

 

I could be wrong, this is just how I see it atm.... 

 

Posted ImagemapukT.png

Typical. Too far W. I knew it. Chances ruined. :(

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TwisterGirl81 Experienced

TwisterGirl81

Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
Posted (edited)

Typical. Too far W. I knew it. Chances ruined. :(

 

Oh well, we never do as well as the rest of the country in relation to bad/severe thunderstorms as they tend to develop futher east and north anyway for some reason?

 

You never know, I'm sure we'll get some interesting weather like we did in Winter, it's very much swings and roundabouts  :pardon:

Edited by TwisterGirl81
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Azazel Veteran

Azazel

Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
Posted

ahhhh a London/midlands and the North East event as always.

 

Will cross my fingers and hope for something friday night from either the passage of the warm front or imports from France

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Typical. Too far W. I knew it. Chances ruined. :(

As I said earlier it'll be a case of window & radar watching. The red area is where I expect the most severe weather reports to be during Saturday, that's not to say anywhere outside of this will not experience anything! It's a very volatile situation developing. I'm sure Nick F will have a much more in depth look at the severe weather potential as we get nearer. 

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)

ahhhh a London/midlands and the North East event as always.

 

Will cross my fingers and hope for something friday night from either the passage of the warm front or imports from France

 

We had a fairly similar setup during Wimbledon a couple of years ago (2011?) with very moist and unstable airmass across C/S/E England, with very high dew points, very high CAPE/LI, high temperatures and an active cold front pushing through around mid to late afternoon - the result was a massive line of very active tropic like thunderstorms which rode the front SW to NE, frequent lightning, torrential rain, relatively large hailstones and lasted for a good hour or two. The primary difference I can see between then and Saturday is on that day the temperature had reached 30C by midday then as the storms were firing they dropped off to around 22C.

 

I'm very much hoping for something similar - that was an awesome day with great green hues in the sky and one storm after another riding the front. The thunder on that particular day was extremely loud and angry too.

 

This was a clip posted by a chap I am very grateful to 

 

Edited by Harry
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