Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[Gordon Webb]

Showing from 10am to 10pm .........BANK

 

well acording to latest ecm chart front will be over the west midlands which will bring the cooler fresher air by midday saturday and with all the will in the world it wont hang around 10 hours so looking like humid start wet spell then fresher if you want the hot humid weather and storms later in the day i'd suggest going east

 

I think this charts shows it quite well

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind-speed-850-hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa?area=Europe&step=72&relative_archive_date=2014060412&parameter=Wind%20850%20and%20mslp

Edited June 4, 2014 by Gordon Webb

[Raidan]

Hard not to get excited about Saturdays possibilities but I have to look at it more realistically and what will more likely be the outcome for me.First scenario is any thunderstorms if there are any will be in the east of the Uk as the east always do better than the west for storms its a fact.The second scenario is a lot of the Uk will do well but the usual places that don't do well including Bristol will once again miss out.got a feeling the Bristol gap on the ATD will return.I hope I do get something as last proper storm was last summer here had nothing since will just have to see what happens.

[Karl83]

I know the primary focus of discussion is for saturday, but could anyone enlighten me on the possibilities of seeing anything after dark on friday/heading into saturday morning? Really desperate to get my first decent night time lightning shot. Got one in the daylight but havent managed a good nighttime one yet!

I think you've got a decent chance at the moment.

[Gordon Webb]

Hard not to get excited about Saturdays possibilities but I have to look at it more realistically and what will more likely be the outcome for me.First scenario is any thunderstorms if there are any will be in the east of the Uk as the east always do better than the west for storms its a fact.The second scenario is a lot of the Uk will do well but the usual places that don't do well including Bristol will once again miss out.got a feeling the Bristol gap on the ATD will return.I hope I do get something as last proper storm was last summer here had nothing since will just have to see what happens.

 

problem is latest charts indicate the front will be through quite early in the day in your location of course timings may change but I would not expect significantly so so we may be in fresher air by early mid afternoon with the hot humid air hanging on in the east with high humidity and a front later east do look best

I think you've got a decent chance at the moment.

 

just hope that front does not accelerate

[Dancerwithwings]

well acording to latest ecm chart front will be over the west midlands which will bring the cooler fresher air by midday saturday and with all the will in the world it wont hang around 10 hours so looking like humid start wet spell then fresher if you want the hot humid weather and storms later in the day i'd suggest going east

 

I think this charts shows it quite well

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind-speed-850-hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa?area=Europe&step=72&relative_archive_date=2014060412&parameter=Wind%20850%20and%20mslp

 The 0Z ECM was showing 30c+ for Monday onwards, almost the opposite today, at this stage its just abit of fun.... 12 hrs of kaboom emmmm No way!.

Edited June 4, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[legritter]

I think the bottom line friday into saturday will be ,somewhere will COP IT ,exact locations still to be forecasted but certainly a very interesting spell of weather on the cards .in 2012 we [wife and i ]flew back into the UK towards the end of June from Canada ,i will never forget the cloud structure as we flew across the west of the country into gatwick during early morning fantastic upper level clouds and following day Bang off it went .lets hope plenty of us see good thunder bolts vivid lightning and of course as the express says five foot holes caused by the hail and all shops selling out of CRash helmets for protection and dark glasses to protect the eyes from lightning flashes ,cheers all and crack open a STella ,

[Cheshire Freeze]

problem is latest charts indicate the front will be through quite early in the day in your location of course timings may change but I would not expect significantly so so we may be in fresher air by early mid afternoon with the hot humid air hanging on in the east with high humidity and a front later east do look best

 

just hope that front does not accelerate

 

Gordon, if anything the GFS shows the front straddling the west/central UK.....with associated high CAPE values. Midlands looks prime ATM but could all change as we get closer

 

 

[MP-R]

Hard not to get excited about Saturdays possibilities but I have to look at it more realistically and what will more likely be the outcome for me.First scenario is any thunderstorms if there are any will be in the east of the Uk as the east always do better than the west for storms its a fact.The second scenario is a lot of the Uk will do well but the usual places that don't do well including Bristol will once again miss out.got a feeling the Bristol gap on the ATD will return.I hope I do get something as last proper storm was last summer here had nothing since will just have to see what happens.

 

Bristol definitely has a storm shield over it. That's one reason I wouldn't move into Bristol from North Somerset haha. It really deflects snow too.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Nice to see the warning area has been extended over my location!!  

 

[Azazel]

I think you've got a decent chance at the moment.

 

Thanks karl:)

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

This doesn't look that dissimilar from 31st August 2005. Although temps of 31-32c were recorded on that day, not the likes of 25-26, so there was a lot more energy then. 

Im sure it was a very similar scenario though with the cold front pushing in with thundery troughs ahead of it moving NNE. I say troughs, more like superbombs!! The lightning show we got that evening through to 1AM was simply spectacular. The sky was being dominated by strobe lighting every 1-2 seconds! 

[robt]

I know I missed a funnel by about 3 miles earlier (the Crowle/Sbad wordhorpe one), but I think I spotted one attempting to form over Castleford/Pontefract way at about 5:30, just after I'd gone through a very strong shower. Not 100% sure, but my brother who was in the car with me seemed to think the same.

[robt]

The Crowle funnel clouds seen forming earlier...

 

[Buriedundersnow]

The Crowle funnel clouds seen forming earlier...

 

 

 

two little funnels there so might have been quite a broad circulation with little spin ups coming off it

[Wilxy]

All this Bristol no storm talk is making me feel negative just aswell im heading for London on Saturday better chance there anyway.

[robt]

two little funnels there so might have been quite a broad circulation with little spin ups coming off it

The system went virtually straight over my head at about 4, and there was all sorts going on in it, so it wouldn't surprise me.

[PolarWarsaw]

The late BBC forecast just actually said the words 'Severe Thunderstorms'. Very unusual.

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

The late BBC forecast just actually said the words 'Severe Thunderstorms'. Very unusual.

 

Yep, it's not very often you hear the word thunderstorm used, let alone severe thunderstorms

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks fantastic for the Midlands. Met Office even got thunder symbols down here in Cornwall for Saturday but just cant see where the potential is for myself over here. GFS suggests any instability to be to the West of us or well to the East.

[Dancerwithwings]

Yep, it's not very often you hear the word thunderstorm used, let alone severe thunderstorms

Can't wait till 'ScottRichards10' reads this post, he's going to pass out....

If your wondering what the fuss is all about http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80454-convective-storm-discussion-28th-may-2014-onwards/page-10#entry2980323

Edited June 4, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Arnie Pie]

Looks fantastic for the Midlands. Met Office even got thunder symbols down here in Cornwall for Saturday but just cant see where the potential is for myself over here. GFS suggests any instability to be to the West of us or well to the East.

Come back and see the family Blizz.....you know it makes scense

[Dami]

I know I shouldn't take it as gospel, but 85% of a storm does   sounds nice. In fact most of the day from 10am on wards a risk of storms sounds very nice. (I won't get too hung up over that 85% Still a few more days to go and all but it says 85%, after all) Met office doesn't give my area the thunder treatment though. Shame.

[PolarWarsaw]

Looks fantastic for the Midlands. Met Office even got thunder symbols down here in Cornwall for Saturday but just cant see where the potential is for myself over here. GFS suggests any instability to be to the West of us or well to the East.

 

That scares me at this juncture. 

 

The places that look prime a few days out, tends to be the ones that 'just miss out' eventually.

[Costa Del Fal]

Come back and see the family Blizz.....you know it makes scense

Haha how tempting... 

 

Whats the chances by Saturday though that the front will actually be further East, lying over Lincolnshire etc!

That scares me at this juncture. 

 

The places that look prime a few days out, tends to be the ones that 'just miss out' eventually.

Indeed, as I have just mentioned above.