Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards


Recommended Posts

Please carry on here folks. Such boring weather we are having at the moment Lol. Let's hope tomorrow delivers something. Looking good for some  if I must say. :)

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Well I have next week off so I'm hoping for some good weather, however it looks like low pressure wont be too far away so a second best outcome would be thundery showers akin to last week.

Link to post
Share on other sites

A possibility of some storms tomorrow across SW England and the West Country, maybe also parts of South Wales and the SW Midlands despite CAPE values that are not overly impressive. Even so, where any storms do form they will be able to take advantage of some 30-40 knots of deep layer shear which may allow some organisation and longevity of cells. There does seem to be an area where GFS has higher CAPE and wind convergence around Somerset and Dorset, which is where I think the highest risk would be tomorrow. Main risks tomorrow are from rainfall as storms will be slow moving giving the potential for localised flooding. Severe weather outside this threat would appear unlikely IMO. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Boreathon this week.

Storms guaranteed in 2 weeks time in S.E. I will be away on holiday in Cornwall and bound to miss the year's best event at home while away.

So convinced that I might miss something I have arranged with security guard at work to keep CCTV footage of the car park so I watch the storm when I get home! All I need is the time of the event and the video can be accessed - a bit like watching a missed much loved TV programme.

Looks like another unsettled June holiday like the dirges form last year back to 2007. (Sorry to be off-topic in this section).

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Once again the beauty of the late GFS run is shown. Latest output suggests a vast area of moisture rich, thunderstorm prone air moving northwest off the near continent. Oh how it can be a tease. FI so expect it to be gone by the 6Z run.....

Link to post
Share on other sites

A possibility of some storms tomorrow across SW England and the West Country, maybe also parts of South Wales and the SW Midlands despite CAPE values that are not overly impressive. Even so, where any storms do form they will be able to take advantage of some 30-40 knots of deep layer shear which may allow some organisation and longevity of cells. There does seem to be an area where GFS has higher CAPE and wind convergence around Somerset and Dorset, which is where I think the highest risk would be tomorrow. Main risks tomorrow are from rainfall as storms will be slow moving giving the potential for localised flooding. Severe weather outside this threat would appear unlikely IMO. 

Ah, a bit far E, well we'll see as who knows what might happen.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Lightning strikes truck on motorway yesterday in Poland. Short clip catches the very moment...http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cfNhz8GCAaE

That's amazing - I wonder what happened to the truck, there seemed to be a lot of flames but it just carried on? The closest I have got in a car was on a very exposed section of autoroute a few years ago near Beaune, CG struck up a relationship with a metal fence at the side of the road and the flash and bang was incredible...

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

After having a quick flick through the model's, I could be in a good place for some interesting weather today. My punt would be on North Dorset and Somerset being prime locations, but squeezing in to Devon later on.

It was sunny here, temps got up to 15.6°C, now the black clouds have appeared.

Link to post
Share on other sites

After having a quick flick through the model's, I could be in a good place for some interesting weather today. My punt would be on North Dorset and Somerset being prime locations, but squeezing in to Devon later on.It was sunny here, temps got up to 15.6°C, now the black clouds have appeared.

Yes, I'm in extreme E Devon so hopefully.

Link to post
Share on other sites

First hints of the sun coming through just W of Southampton.

I looked at the skew-t for Devon and it did seem to indicate low level cloud for the morning but clearing during the afternoon retaining moisture and low LCL as the dewpoint and temps are still reasonably close and for what I learnt last night seems to be the lower the LCL the less of a trigger needed. Better look at this mornings skew-T though :-) Edited by Greenday
Link to post
Share on other sites

I looked at the skew-t for Devon and it did seem to indicate low level cloud for the morning but clearing during the afternoon retaining moisture and low LCL as the dewpoint and temps are still reasonably close and for what I learnt last night seems to be the lower the LCL the less of a trigger needed. Better look at this mornings skew-T though :-)

Yes, I dont understand skew-t very well but the chart looks a bit crazy so I suppose that means unstable?

 

What do these suggest?

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, I dont understand skew-t very well but the chart looks a bit crazy so I suppose that means unstable?

 

What do these suggest?

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Devon had a downgrade but you in good position.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, I dont understand skew-t very well but the chart looks a bit crazy so I suppose that means unstable?

 

What do these suggest?

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Devon had a downgrade but you in good position.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Thursday 29th May 2014

FROM THE MET OFFICE!

 

YELLOW WARNING of RAIN for south Wales, southwest England and central southern England. Scattered heavy and locally thundery downpours are likely to develop across parts of southern England, the south Midlands and southeast Wales this afternoon, only slowly easing this evening. The public should be aware of the risk of surface water flooding.

 

Valid Thursday 29th May 1400 until 2200.

 

I wonder if they will be right this time!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Not much showing on radar at the moment ,but this afternoon especially later could see some storms being set off but a bit hit and miss ,best of luck if you get one ,dont hug it too much send it this way ,cheers all .

Link to post
Share on other sites

Not much showing on radar at the moment ,but this afternoon especially later could see some storms being set off but a bit hit and miss ,best of luck if you get one ,dont hug it too much send it this way ,cheers all .

Most of it is hit and miss and I probably won't get anything knowing my luck.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...