Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[andy989]

Whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!  Time will tell, thunderstorms aren't really known for their predictability , I doubt I'll go through the day without seeing something.  But I'm starting to think models were created for one reason and one reason only, last minute disappointment to the westerners!. 

I am ruling out the big stuff for me though.

[Arnie Pie]

i did think about streaming a 720p feed . i was just talking to my friend what cameras to use ...rate my chances and i will pop up a feed :)

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Yep....We could have storms coming up from the SW over Friday night and into early Sat morning....So i'm preparing for a long shift!!

 

What will be will be.......but be  will be streamed

Edited June 5, 2014 by Arnie Pie

[Mapantz]

Some storm helicity charts for Saturday from the NMM model, highest values further N&W. 

 

hel.PNGhel1.PNGhel3.PNG

ECM charts coming to that viewer soon Liam.

[Love Snow]

It's about time Yorkshire got some luck and I think this Saturday Could well be that day'

Edited June 5, 2014 by Love Snow

[Daniel*]

Best CAPE pushed further east again on the 18z. Looks like game over for most of Wales now

 

Don't you dare end up in the North Sea!!! Any more shunts East and then I'll start getting concerned.

[andy989]

Some storm helicity charts for Saturday from the NMM model, highest values further N&W. 

 

hel.PNGhel1.PNGhel3.PNG

This is a roller coaster, one minute it aint looking good for the west, next it aint too shabby. I am now neutral, Poland so to speak, and just going to ride it out with cautious optimism. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Don't you dare end up in the North Sea!!! Any more shunts East and then I'll start getting concerned.

 

Lol I'm having horrible visions of that joke Metoffice warning map that a member posted earlier on in the week. The one where it just showed a tiny part of the NE under a warning come the day itself. It may have been a joke at the time but at this rate it could be coming true!

[andy989]

This is a roller coaster, one minute it aint looking good for the west, next it aint too shabby. I am now neutral, Poland so to speak, and just going to ride it out with cautious optimism. 

But before I do that, the BBC Wales forecast shows some very heavy stuff over me  from 2:am onwards on saturday morning. We'll see

Edited June 5, 2014 by andy989

[MrSunshine]

Don't worry about those N&E, worry about those of us out west who might end up witnessing a bit of rain before cells erupt further E!

Been the case zo many times to my frustration!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Right, tonight us westerners should go to bed and do a quick prayer for a swift shunt west on the models tomorrow morning!

[Tom Jarvis]

Lol I better not miss out this time but it looks like I will which is typical

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Monday looking possible for some lively action in the Southeast. But its the continent thats looking apocalyptic!! Comparable to the States in some respects.

[Andy Pepler]

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Yep....We could have storms coming up from the SW over Friday night and into early Sat morning....So i'm preparing for a long shift!!

 

What will be will be.......but be wiill be streamed

ahhhh why the hekk not ....it gives me some to use all of this bandwith with...just need to think about frame rate and compression lolol

[andy989]

Right, tonight us westerners should go to bed and do a quick prayer for a swift shunt west on the models tomorrow morning!

Amen

[A.J]

Lol I'm having horrible visions of that joke Metoffice warning map that a member posted earlier on in the week. The one where it just showed a tiny part of the NE under a warning come the day itself. It may have been a joke at the time but at this rate it could be coming true!

no you're just a miserable git stuck in the middle of Crewe...lol

 

joking aside bud, don't get caught up in the old 'run to run mental labotomy' trap, Most of Wales and parts of the midlands have a solid chance of seeing elevated thunderstorms early saturday morning. My only real concern at this time is for the more eastern areas in the so called 'sweet spot' as it's possible, just possible that elevated remnants and cloudcover might hinder surface based convection during the afternoon, although MLCAPE stays very high throughout the day in eastern areas so even if there isn't enough direct solar heating to initiate strong surface convection to break the cap, then further elevated storms might well erupt over eastern areas....lots of ifs and buts, it's going to be fascinating to see how it all pans out

[Captain Shortwave]

Monday looking possible for some lively action in the Southeast. But its the continent thats looking apocalyptic!! Comparable to the States in some respects.

Indeed, nice little shunt westwards from the GFS on this run. Could be very warm in the south east on Monday again. Got to laugh at the cape values, over Northern France and Belgium Saturday's event is a utter disappointment compared to Monday 

Edit - wow 34C in Northern France, that's going to kick things off (A decent 27C for the south east is still not bad)

Surprised at an eastward shift in cape values as actually the 500mb flow had shifted slightly west in this run, of course storm risks can shrink or grow run to run as well as shift east/west.

Edited June 5, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Chris K]

Best CAPE pushed further east again on the 18z. Looks like game over for most of Wales now

 

That agrees with the high resolution 4km NMM quite nicely right now for 1500hrs Saturday. Very very similar.

 

High levels of SBCAPE explodes from the W Country and C/S England around 0900 and grows N, NE and E from there through the day, with more stable air arriving behind the cold front. Currently the heaviest precipitation actually moves NW along the surface wind convergence line moving through Wales and up towards SW Scotland, also trailing across C/E England. However storms also likely to form in those high CAPE regions in the afternoon, if as AJ said, there isn't any crud looming over those areas.

 

My personal feeling is the further South and West you are, better chances are early in the morning when the front trails through, but as ever it'll be a case of watching the radars and skies on the day itself.

 

Will be interesting to see what the higher resolution models show tomorrow night...

Edited June 5, 2014 by Chris K

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Indeed, nice little shunt westwards from the GFS on this run. Could be very warm in the south east on Monday again. Got to laugh at the cape values, over Northern France and Belgium Saturday's event is a utter disappointment compared to Monday 

Edit - wow 34C in Northern France, that's going to kick things off (A decent 27C for the south east is still not bad)

Surprised at an eastward shift in cape values as actually the 500mb flow had shifted slightly west in this run, of course storm risks can shrink or grow run to run as well as shift east/west.

This may well come down to nowcasting I think. Its a forecasters nightmare mate! lol

[andy989]

Not taking BBC videos as gospel obviously but I'm so excited/confused I'll clutch anything.

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19918-/

[Captain Shortwave]

This may well come down to nowcasting I think. Its a forecasters nightmare mate! lol

As long as it's not a weather fans nightmare

[Greeny]

Monday on GFS is showing pretty high values of instability and cape over Norfolk. However that is Monday and bound to change

[cheese]

It's about time Yorkshire got some luck and I think this Saturday Could well be that day'

I'm not hopeful, considering the highest CAPE values have always been modeled to be south of here (all this talk of shunts east and west - I'd prefer a shunt north), but I guess we'll see (I'm still sticking by my prediction in the NSC that we'll get nothing here whatsoever at all).

[Costa Del Fal]

From a purely selfish point of view, any shifts of the main front East are good for here as it may mean thundery showers here in Cornwall with some instability brusing us from the Atlantic. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Surprised at an eastward shift in cape values as actually the 500mb flow had shifted slightly west in this run, of course storm risks can shrink or grow run to run as well as shift east/west.

 

Yes, noticed this but it all seems to come down to where the +10 isotherm lies

[TEITS]

During winter I dislike living in Peterborough and wish I lived in Aberdeen when it comes to snow. However in summer when storms are forecast I love living in Peterborough because we always seem to do very well.