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Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes

I have a feeling Saturday will consist of more dynamic rainfall with embedded storms, some of which could be very potent, rather than individual storms.

 

concern is how heavy the rainfall is we got a little taster yesterday here with some showers really heavy if that happens longer then serious problems for the worst areas.

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

I just had a brief look at the Model's, GFS High Resolution showing lots of Surface Based Scape/-LI in the later hours Friday Evening. Over France, wondering if there's any potential for storms to track north/northwest from that area.  That looks to be the only hope I can see for some decent imports.

 

Posted Image

 

That is rather looking juicy Friday evening, especially looking at the Occlusion and Trough rolling through.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Robbie Garrett
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Might need to get a boat if this comes off! As others have mentioned inc TV forecasts It does look like the heaviest/torrential rainfall will affect more western areas for parts of Wales, NW England & S Scotland as the front moves in heading NE, areas further south and east may be relying on surface based convection to kick off and some areas may stay dry while other places get deluged? Tough one to call! Going to come down to radar watching on the day, exciting times ahead. 

 

post-9615-0-32984400-1401985307_thumb.pn post-9615-0-52865900-1401985939_thumb.pn

 

 

 

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

What are MCS?? Not familiar with that. :)

 Mesoscale convective system - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77200-a-guide-to-thunderstorms-in-the-british-isles/

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

To my eye it is looking very good for the SE, I had a good feeling about this since the start :) all should seriously not get whirled up by what the MetO are rambling, on this is a dynamic situation. The CAPE is through the roof and several other variables bond well for storm development, maybe Supercell in structure. I stress to not get over-excited. MCS, might wreck our homegrown chances, little reserved tbh.

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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

Oh no, I'm done for.. not a single chance of a thunderstorm here. Not even a bit of drizzle :(

 

Yeah right.. wonder why they don't just connect the warning over Northern Ireland and Wales to include the Isle of Man. Perhaps they genuinely have something against me.

 

Posted Image

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Oh no, I'm done for.. not a single chance of a thunderstorm here. Not even a bit of drizzle :(

 

Yeah right.. wonder why they don't just connect the warning over Northern Ireland and Wales to include the Isle of Man. Perhaps they genuinely have something against me.

 

Posted Image

I think its just an administration type thing ,or the met doesn't like the isle of man !!......
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Posted Image Pretty much the same, Shaky :good:

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12z NMM showing things really getting going during in the early morning as mid level cape spreads up from the S

 

Posted Image  Posted Image  Posted Image

 

Storms breaking out further E then as a lot of surface CAPE builds

 

Posted Image  Posted Image

 

Friday evening is when it could start

 

Posted Image

Edited by Bobby
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

MLCAPE still looks exceptional on the NMM, especially further inland during the first part of Saturday.

post-15177-0-18593400-1401988140_thumb.ppost-15177-0-35141000-1401988165_thumb.ppost-15177-0-07086700-1401988225_thumb.ppost-15177-0-67164500-1401988264_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Thunderstorms forecast for here tomorrow evening. Lets see what pulls off.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

MLCAPE still looks exceptional on the NMM, especially further inland during the first part of Saturday.

Posted ImageScreenshot_2014-06-05-18-02-11.pngPosted ImageScreenshot_2014-06-05-18-02-26.pngPosted ImageScreenshot_2014-06-05-18-02-59.pngPosted ImageScreenshot_2014-06-05-18-03-40.png

to add, looking at those MLCAPE values and progged 850-500 lapse rates, and the timing of the theta-e plume, looks promising for an meso-convective system to develop over the northern france/channel....I haven't seen PWAT or shear values yet (the NW NMM rolls out in half an hour) but if they're conducive, then we could be game on in southern counties.........could be an issue though for eastern or north eastern areas as MCS detritus and crud could hamper surface based convection later on in the day for those areas......A very interesting 24 hours of model watching

 

 

just to add..

 

damn it, where's weather09 when you need him?  :laugh:

Edited by ajpoolshark
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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Storm or no storm I cant wait to start tracking the storms moving up going to be exciting

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Whatever happens I do admit myself it's a bit of a exciting time (even if it only for a day) Some places will get pummlled maybe on saturday or it could be all for nothing who knows. Still a little touch and go whether anything will happen here on saturday or not (or whether it will be heavy rain) but beers are at the ready (and the NW extra radar of course)

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Weather 09 certainly knows his stuff when it comes to forecasting thunderstorms that's for sure! He is missed on this thread as I base my likely hood of thunder on his posts! Now I have to use the met office and the BBC :rofl::laugh: :laugh: :laugh: ! The latest forecast from them has thunderstorms over the western parts of the UK early saturday and then they break out over the east! Sunday is a drier cooler day, so it looks like a one day wonder at the moment! Next week could bring a good few days of settled weather, but always a risk of a thunderstorm here and there! Middle of June could be very thundery for the south! :bomb:  We will see!

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Well the latest BBC forecast had storms far too sparsely spread for my liking. Seems to have been a slight downgrade on the GFS 6oz run.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

Ok folks. It's certainly getting exciting with the up -and - coming storm potential forecast for this weekend. :bomb:  :D  :drunk:  I am so excited and I so hope everybody gets a  storm this time.This could be our best chance yet if it verifies  :bomb:  :bomb:  :bomb: be prepared for a very long exciting thread. Good luck everyone. :drunk:  :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

They haven't got a scooby doo Lauren, so by spreading thunderstorms all over the place, they should get it right somewhere! :laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

A decent sunny and warm day to look forward to tomorrow before all hell breaks lose (we hope) on Saturday, get in! The excitement is building....  :clap:  :bomb:

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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

The Latest BBC weather looked very promising! The west covered in torrential rain, Thunderstorms etc. and the east also getting the action too!! Really great UK wide outlook just now, can't see it changing very much tbh. :yahoo:  :clapping:  :yahoo:  :clapping:  :yahoo:  :clapping:  :yahoo:  :clapping:

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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/warnings.asp

 

"The highest risk at present remains to the West of the country where a plume of steep lapse rates will be present, especially across North-west England on Saturday evening where mesocyclogenesis is possible as circulation could develop within the frontal system as backing winds undercut the front introducing moisture from the Irish Sea."

 

:shok:  :shok:  :shok: 

 

A huge improvement from the start of the week where this was forecast for the east only! Second plume type set up now where everything has shifted west rather than east, as of recent years. Could we be seeing a change in the trend? I really do hope so.

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

The WRF is showing 3000-3500 j/kg of CAPE in Norfolk on Saturday afternoon with over 2000j/kg quite widely. Currently looking very good if not superb with high CAPE of over 1500j/kg, some places double that, decent wind shear, helicity and that triggering cold front all coming across at the same time. Things could still change but currently it is looking remarkably similar to the 28th June 2012 to me.

 

I will be chasing, with the possibility I will head out in the early hours to catch some night time lightning before getting into position around my local area with an ability to head east for mid morning onwards. I will make a more definite decision though in around 24 hours time.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

The WRF is showing 3000-3500 j/kg of CAPE in Norfolk on Saturday afternoon with over 2000j/kg quite widely. Currently looking very good if not superb with high CAPE of over 1500j/kg, some places double that, decent wind shear, helicity and that triggering cold front all coming across at the same time. Things could still change but currently it is looking remarkably similar to the 28th June 2012 to me.

 

I will be chasing, with the possibility I will head out in the early hours to catch some night time lightning before getting into position around my local area with an ability to head east for mid morning onwards. I will make a more definite decision though in around 24 hours time.

I hope I get something. What do you think, Supacell?

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