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Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.


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In terms of temperature this time next week, the NMM-18, does not agree at all with ecm and looks like its more in line with the gfs projections with a southwesterly air flow........

 

I believe NMM gets its boundary conditions from the GFS.

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A return to reality with the ECM ens

that was always gona be the case mate!!I haven't seen a mean chart that looks as extreme as an op chart ever!!but considering its the mean the 850s still look very warm throughout and also pressure remains relatively high through!!
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A return to reality with the ECM ens

 

But if you compare the mean with the op at T144, there's less than 100 miles difference, that's as much agreement as you could hope for so far out?

 

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UKMO T144 almost replicates the ECM mean. Maybe these runs are more credible that I'd thought.

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Dutch ensembles for this morning's ECM:  Posted Imageeps_pluim_tt_06310 (6).png

 

oops.

 

LOL the op has been on an all night bender by the looks of that. You can just imagine all the other members saying 'Johnny get a glass of water and get to bed, you're drunk'.

 

UKMO slightly more restrained with plume of very warm uppers being steered east by the trough just to the west...

 

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Edited by CreweCold
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that was always gona be the case mate!!I haven't seen a mean chart that looks as extreme as an op chart ever!!but considering its the mean the 850s still look very warm throughout and also pressure remains relatively high through!!

 

Strange as it may seem I did have an inkling of that, mate!!!

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ECM op certainly looks overdone but we need to remember that the high uppers are not far away and the behaviour of the upper trough will dictate how close that ends up to us. Who's to say that the higher res of the ECM op isn't more reliable at day 6/7 than the ens ? Clearly, beyond day 7, the op looks to evolve at odds with the ens members which likely means that if the high uppers do get here, they are not likely to stick around as long as the op shows.

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LOL the op has been on an all night bender by the looks of that. You can just imagine all the other members saying 'Johnny get a glass of water and get to bed, you're drunk'.

 

UKMO slightly more restrained with plume of very warm uppers being steered east by the trough just to the west...

 

Posted Image

we do get hit by the plume on that chart crewe cold but more the western part of the plume!!so 850s of 12 degrees instead off 20 which is still damn good!
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Morning all-

So the thought of 10 days / 2 weeks ago that the heat would expand out of europe seems to be coming to fruition -

Weve been zig zagging along the models where the initial plume has been taking a side swipe at the uk however really only E & SE really being impacted-

However with no real attack from the atlantic pressing into the low countries the heat can remainin situ and start to back west.

The ECM shows what i referred to the other day where the flow changes to an east south east - which filters the hottest uppers across france into the Uk

2 weeks ago i referred to 2003 & it was cited by some as a joke etc etc, im not saying this will be the case per say however the upper flow pattern of a split jet in the atlantic with the core moving NE over iceland & a residual flow to the Sw of the UK combined with a block to east of the UK is good solid conditions for hot temperatures in western europe - even the UK

 

Actually, looking back at the archives for 2003, it wasn't actually that settled a summer. I think people just remember the (record breaking) hot spell at the start of August. So, with that in mind, I suspect a 2003 esque event may not be beyond the realms of possibility. People talk as if it was a '76 re-run but it really wasn't in reality (even I had forgotten how it really panned out!).

 

6z GFS not really looking like ECM or the UKMO. Still settled at day 7, however

 

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Edited by CreweCold
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Not when you compare with the UK met @ 144...A strong comparison between the 2.

 

Steve, the UKMO and ECM are chalk and cheese with how they deal with trough energy to the W at 144 hours. The ECM has thrust of energy aligned N-S (hence the synoptics that follow) whereas UKMO has it more orientated SSW-NNE. It's at this point the ECM becomes a huge outlier.

Edited by CreweCold
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Saturday afternoon/evening the best chance for some storms according to GFS:

 

post-14819-0-86245200-1401877934_thumb.p  post-14819-0-73751000-1401877981_thumb.p

 

Sunday and Monday the risk remains just across the Channel: post-14819-0-69446500-1401878030_thumb.ppost-14819-0-71682500-1401877944_thumb.p

 

 

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Worth noting of the main models I've looked at the GFS seems to be the only model that doesn't bring another brief plume and potential thundery stuff on Monday/Tuesday next week, the ECM operational the only model that prolongs that into a proper heatwave. UKMO and GEM are in the middle with the brief plume scenario along with the ECM ensemble mean.

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considering next week. people are looking in the wrong place for what will change our fortunes. the ukmo and ecm at day 5 have a sharp atlantic ridge stretching into Greenland. this cuts off the feed to the low near the UK. simply put it puts the euro block in the ascendency and can back westwards. GFS just does not see this ridge and hence continues the cold feed allowing the low to eventually overpower the ridge. At this timeframe you would usually back the Euros and i expect the GFS will start to see this ridge and improve the odds for the UK.

For me the question is how hot and how long? ECM ens alone give a substantial warm up even if its a typical 2/3 days and then it goes bang.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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considering next week. people are looking in the wrong place for what will change our fortunes. the ukmo and ecm at day 5 have a sharp atlantic ridge stretching into Greenland. this cuts off the feed to the low near the UK. simply put it puts the euro block in the ascendency and can back westwards. GFS just does not see this ridge and hence continues the cold feed allowing the low to eventually overpower the ridge. At this timeframe you would usually back the Euros and i expect the GFS will start to see this ridge and improve the odds for the UK.For me the question is how hot and how long? ECM ens alone give a substantial warm up even if its a typical 2/3 days and then it goes bang.

An interesting view Captain and cant be discounted.

It would need that Atlantic trough to pull back which is indeed shown on the ECM Op run around T120/144hrs.

I think we can say that the weekend push from the west will get across though as it 's now getting too close for much change to the 500hPa outlook so I guess you are talking about second incursion of heat,a sort of second bite?

It would be a bit of surprise as we have seen a number of times where the ECM Operational later frames like to sharpen the wave patterns a little more than the others.

The mean outputs for next week also model a more Atlantic pattern as shown in my earlier post.

The Ens graph would indicate the ECM Op being a warm run against it's members also.

post-2026-0-49380700-1401883749_thumb.gi

 

Still never say never as we all know in here by now the unexpected can and does crop up from time to time.

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Well, we have a complete breakdown in consensus by day 8 now with 3 very different solutions. Not something you expect in summer.

 

Even no consensus at day 6.

 

As a result, i'd bin the 0z and 6z outputs.

 

NOAA narrowly backs the GFS6z and 0z ensemble means at day 8..

 

 

 

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
(TIED). 

 

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Looks like they expect the trough to break through even if weak.

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GFS 6z suggesting many eastern parts will stay dry till late on Saturday.

 

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GFS 6z suggesting many eastern parts will stay dry till late on Saturday.

 

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Gets into Yorkshire during the evening.

 

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