Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[knocker]

Two posts in a row that contradict each other,the ecm looking good for pulses of heat!

 

Actually within the time frame of my previous post Weds-Friday there are no pulses of warm air with the ECM.. The last one is on the Tuesday affecting the east and mainly south east.

[damianslaw]

Quite unusual synoptics developing at present - a cut off slow moving trough surrounding by strong heights seemingly stuck in situ with nowhere to go... very odd, all a symptom of a very sluggish Jetstream. It makes forecasting very difficult. What has been notable so far this year is the propensity for any emerging cool/cold set up relative to the time of year quickly being eradicated and trounced by warmer synoptics - often a very fine line, and once again the end of this week will see such a fine line balanced in favour of the warmer air - indeed if the jet had a bit more fire power we would very likely be seeing a cool/cold outlook - tomorrow is a case in point with whole country on the cold side of the trough and projected low maxima for the time of year.

[A.J]

Brilliant ecm this evening!!also plume is still on for the weekend!!

Shaky, will you please, please add something more than just throwaway one liners which actually contain more exclamation marks than content.... ...Your posts are currently much better suited to the model ramps/moans thread

 

cheers

[Man With Beard]

Interesting evening's charts. GFS op returns to yesterday's pattern - between t72-t120, two Atlantic lows phase, heights weaker to the north - not as hot in the short term, but this allows the lows to clear north and a pattern change, with decent HP build later on. ECM keeps better heights to the north, the first low hence gets cut-off and acts as a big sucking device from the south - result, a very warm few days in the SE starting on Friday. Two ultimate destinations from the ECM - the favoured one, I feel, is to keep low heights near to the UK and no prolonged settled weather. An alternative, though, could be that the Atlantic lows simply stay in situ for longer to our SW - we could eventually get a direct hit from a plume if that happens, in which case we might have to dust off the 90F mark on the thermometre before long.

All in all, lots of interest as we go into proper summer time.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Jet slightly stronger on this run. The consequences, thus far, is an inability of pressure to assert itself quite as much over mainland Europe, with the troughing perilously close to the UK

 

 

 

Further on towards the end of hi res, the jet is shown to have sprung into life at just the wrong time for ridging to take effect

 

 

That ridge is looking more and more pathetic as we get closer

 

Edited June 3, 2014 by CreweCold

[summer blizzard]

GFS seems to have a far weaker jet stream in the Atlantic than the GEM and Euro but at day 8 both the GEM and Euro do have the trough still west of the UK so relatively warm. GFS18z is quite the outlier compared to the 12z models. Euro and GEM seem more in agreement.

 

 

GFS has heavy rain on Saturday, probably on the south east and east anglia will benefit from the plume.

 

 

I must also echo Damian. When you consider how far south the trough is digging, how weak the Azores High is and how persistent heights north of the UK are we are benefiting from a fairly rare scenario. Should the jet increase in strength then cool and wet could be easily achieved although nobody really knows when that will happen.

[knocker]

A quick look at last night before proceeding get under way, so to speak.

 

Still no agreement  between the GFS and ECM over the 500 mb anomaly for next week with the latter placing more emphasis on the colder air in the Atlantic with the GFS developing the warm to the east south of the UK, Both have the jet on a southerly track with the ECM more south. To my untutored eye this doesn't bode well for any breakdown in the pattern any time soon although the GFS scenario would be favourite to do so. Anyway at the moment this is crystal ball gazing and Mystic is still on standby.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS still showing a good set up for Saturday

 

 

Decent temperatures and thunderstorm potential

GFS then has high pressure near the UK until the end of high resolution with low heights to the north west with a generally south westerly flow.

 

UKMO and GEM still want the Euro ridge to push closer to the UK again at the start of next week, again pushing warmer continental air over us. The GEM eventually building in a UK high bringing fine and warm/very warm conditions.

Edited June 4, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[knocker]

Yes agree with the good Captain regarding Saturday (except the 'good' bit). At midday the front is situated Dorset-West Midlands-north east Ireland although obviously the exact position will change Potential for thundery outbreaks and some heavy rain.

 

The next three days shows the 850mb flow is from the south west as the low to the west fills and moves slowly north. Temps still quite warm, particularly to the E/SE but the edge of the European warm air runs France-Dover Straights-Scandinavia.

[Captain Shortwave]

Was wondering captain if the current ensembles support this or last nights ensembles are going for it too?

Ensembles are trending to a flatter pattern in week 2, well the GFS are and last nights ECM ens were. GEM ens showing more amplification to our east meaning the ridge holds on for longer and personally I feel that's where we will end up.

 

ECM looks good again for Saturday (location depending). Even better for next week

 

Tuesday looking really interesting

This looks more widespread. Very warm or even hot in the South on Tuesday if this came off.

Edit - T168, there would be our first 30C max of the year, possibly higher. Prolonged dry and hot spell, though potential thundery activity developing from the south by day 10.

 

GFS again looking much more progressive than the other models in clearing the low to our west and bringing in a more SW/NE tilt to the jet.

Edited June 4, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

We have been struggling to see the evolution post day 6 for a fair while. ECM op looks to be an outlier as early as day 7. Quite unusual for that op to be so wrong so early. Given that there is a lack of continuity in the nwp, perhaps it won't be such an outlier after all?

I wouldn't be discounting anything next week at the moment. Could be fresh and 17 or thundery and 28 or sunny and 32!!

[Polar Maritime]

Morning all, ECMWF is showing some "very" warm temps pushing East over most of the UK, I think we will see some fantastic storm potential by the end of this week/early next..

 

GFS seems to showing a slack Northerly from the 18th, Something i have seen it toying with over the last few runs.  

 

Edited June 4, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[IDO]

I love ECM, they always try and put a smile on your face in the morning. Days 6-10 anomaly uppers:

 

 

NOAA 6-10 days anomaly:   Apples and oranges?

 

NOAA unusually saying "low confidence" even in the 6-10 Day charts (2 out of 5).

 

GFS also showing lots of variation run to run and again the op and control are outliers compared to their mean in FI:

 

 

Though you wont be surprised that at D9 no GFS ENS support ECM's plume. I think the latter have exceeded themselves with a whopper of an outlier this morning.

 

 

 

 

[Cloud 10]

ECM operational has gone nuts this morning with its heatwave synoptics.  

 

 

Fax chart for Saturday provides continuing excitement for storm fans.  

 

[knocker]

Apart from having the main low pressure area further south the ECM ops is very similar to the GFS for the weekend.

Edited June 4, 2014 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

ECM is a heatfest, I kind of thought such a run was possible but didn't really expect to see it! A true heatwave next week if it comes off. But in all honesty, the models are completely at odds this morning - these cut-off lows are causing big problems. As Bluearmy said, no way of forecasting beyond Sunday to any great precision just yet.

[knocker]

Don Bradman once summoned his players on to the balcony at Trent Bridge when Stan MaCabe was batting and said, "come out and watch this, you may never see the like again". Well...............this is borderline 94F in places.

Edited June 4, 2014 by knocker

[Nick L]

Don Bradman once summoned his players on to the balcony at Trent Bridge when Stan MaCabe was batting and said, "come out and watch this, you may never see the like again". Well...............this is borderline 94F in places.

 

For those who don't use old money, that's 34c

[ANYWEATHER]

ECM is a heatfest, I kind of thought such a run was possible but didn't really expect to see it! A true heatwave next week if it comes off. But in all honesty, the models are completely at odds this morning - these cut-off lows are causing big problems. As Bluearmy said, no way of forecasting beyond Sunday to any great precision just yet.

Ecm would not just bring heat but I would of thought some big, big storms, but for now unfortunately its in the realms of Fantasy land!!!

[shaky]

That has come out the blue from ecm!!dont think we shall see a heatwave of that calibre but lets see!!ecm and ukmo look pretty similar though at 144 hours with high pressure to the east!!gfs looks good and similar to the ecm and ukmo regarding this weekend's plume but then goes flat!!hopefully ecm comes off!!could be looking at steve murrs 32 degrees come off!!

[summer blizzard]

Does anybody have the NOAA discussion, it looks like the anomaly chart sticks the finger at the Euro.

[johnholmes]

Does anybody have the NOAA discussion, it looks like the anomaly chart sticks the finger at the Euro.

 

links below

the GFS issue this morning is again nearer to the NOAA 6-10 but still not enough similarity or continuity between the 3 for me to be totally convinced on the upper air pattern post 6 days. Probably the NOAA 6-10 will be closer to what we see 6 days from now

links

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

click on the 500mb if you want to see that, it shows you another link, click on that and the 6-10 and 8-14 open up

[Summer Sun]

Almost chocked on my breakfast juice when I saw ECM!

 

 

What can I say other than WOW fantastic for heat and storms!

[ANYWEATHER]

In terms of temperature this time next week, the NMM-18, does not agree at all with ecm and looks like its more in line with the gfs projections with a more or less West to  southwesterly air flow........

Edited June 4, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[chris55]

ECM op worthy of a comment lol!!! Even though it's an outlier with low confidence. The heat in there is looking like proper heat wave territory ⚡☀