Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z has pressure starting to build from day 8

 

[shaky]

06z pretty much the same regarding the plume but unlike the 00z it builds high pressure nicely straight after!!

[Captain Shortwave]

much better gfs op there. looks likely that we will get 2 gos on the Spanish plume slot machine so plenty of interest in the week 1 details.

week 2 looks better with a more favouable Atlantic pattern as the low over the west Atlantic does not get cut off. at the day9/10 range there is again another surge of warm air getting into iberia. How far north that gets remains to be seen.

Edited June 3, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[William of Walworth]

Over these most recent runs there's been so many changes in exact details to the the trough v plume standoff -- even for this coming weekend, let alone for the following week.

 

I therefore suggest that no-one on here can confidently make any longer term projections for later in the month. There's been some talk elsewhere of a 'warm wet June' but for mid to late month at least, that's surely speculation, given how much changes in synoptic positioning/detail is happening right now. 

 

ETA : To be fair to J10 in his Glastonbury blog and thread for end-of-month, he's offering great analysis combined with scrupulously careful warnings that he can only identify trends and broad possibilities for the time being. Not entirely irrelevant for current and later UK model watching more generally though.

Edited June 3, 2014 by William of Walworth

[William of Walworth]

Short term/selfishly, I'd personally want a dry and warm Saturday 7th in the SE (Cambridge especially) but I do fear from current modelling that if 22C or more heat builds as certainly remains possible, there'll be serious fireworks and downpours too, Given what so often happens when the fringe of a plume meets the fringe of a trough. But with those, it's always luck of the draw as to exactly where the downpours happen.

Edited June 3, 2014 by William of Walworth

[Milhouse]

The indications of a swift transition to high pressure after the weekend may have receded somewhat but its still going to feel warm and humid/muggy at times so still summery and not the awful Autumnal conditions of June 2012. Its a rapidly changing picture over the next 10 days with no 2 days the same. Thursday, Friday and Sunday looking quite decent days at the moment with a band of rain likely to straddle the UK on Saturday but it wont be raining everywhere.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Current outlook looks unsettled for the foreseeable almost nationwide. Looks like its gonna get warm and muggy for the weekend but not dry. Certainly no sign of any sustained dry heatwave style weather happening anytime soon. Very much a continuation of showers or longer spells of rain, with short drier interludes in between.

Edited June 3, 2014 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[mountain shadow]

Fine margins in the model output over the positioning of the Atlantic trough.

 

If it stays mid Atlantic then the chance of very warm/hot conditions encroaching into the British Isles, especially for the South East. If however, the tough moves East, then potentially very wet.

 

At least we will be on the warm side of the trough so it will be very mild at the least and warm in any sunshine.

[Man With Beard]

Over these most recent runs there's been so many changes in exact details to the the trough v plume standoff -- even for this coming weekend, let alone for the following week.

 

I therefore suggest that no-one on here can confidently make any longer term projections for later in the month. There's been some talk elsewhere of a 'warm wet June' but for mid to late month at least, that's surely speculation, given how much changes in synoptic positioning/detail is happening right now. 

Completely agree with this - as CS mentioned this morning, having two cut-off lows in the Atlantic will wreak havoc across the models for the coming days. So much variation for D8 on GEFS 06Z: NW parts probably unsettled but the SE right on the knife-edge between heatwave and something average:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192

[summer blizzard]

Certainly a very wild model output at the moment (in terms of run to run swing). The GFS6z is actually pretty similar to the GEM at day 8 (high resolution) but within 2 days GEM has a northerly (backed by the Euro) and GFS builds high pressure over the UK. When that swing takes just two days you know the models are on the edge.

 

[knocker]

The ECM does seem to be still running with much the same theme though. The upper anomaly has the usual low in the east Atlantic surrounded by the warmer air with the important ridge running N/S just east of the UK. This pattern continues next week with the ridge intensifying. This leads to generally unsettled cyclonic conditions with the odd incursion of the warmer air from the south and east as the cold/warm air battle away. The jet isn't conducive to major change as it's very weak and running south of the cold pool before popping north over the UK.

Edited June 3, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Doesn't look much like a plume to me over the weekend. Quite wet over Saturday from the front and the temps hovering around 70s.

If that on Sunday and then only in the east.

Edited June 3, 2014 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS looks ok still, the precipitation in the east looks more showery which means in any sunny spells it could turn very warm with some very warm air sitting over the that area. Rain from the start in western areas and this will tend to pivot and move north east later in the day and clearing the UK by Sunday morning to leave a very pleasant Sunday with just a few showers.

Storm risk still looks good in the East on Saturday and Ireland as well behind the cold front.

 

In fact during Friday night and into Saturday any rain pushing north could be thundery in nature.

 

UKMO does not look very good with a definite north east push of cooler air and seems to stop the warm air really getting into the UK. Will have to wait and see whether it was a rogue run or not.

 

Beyond that, well that ridge to the east isn't really giving way so winds between the south and south west until that mess in the Atlantic gets sorted out.

 

GEM

Looks more like the GFS until it goes off from here 

GEM keeps the warm air through the weekend and into next week before pressure builds around us and closes down the Atlantic.

Edited June 3, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows the warmer air moving into the UK on Friday should be fairly dry in the east

 

 

UKMO 850's have not updated for Saturday currently but with thundery showers look likely

 

Sunday sees the warmest 850's moving away to mainland Europe pressure will be highest to the south

 

 

By Monday the high is to the east of the UK, 850's start to rise again for the south

 

Edited June 3, 2014 by Summer Sun

[shaky]

Gfs still the same as 06z to my eyes!!and ukmo same if not better this morning with the plume of warm air slightly further west!!

[summer blizzard]

I'd not get too excited by the day 6 UKMO to me, it's extremely similar to the ECWMF.

 

That said, very weird synoptics given the strong heights over the Arctic.

[knocker]

The ECM ops for midday on Saturday

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM keeps the warmth here longer than some of the other models not totally dry but it would often be quite warm and at times humid with the best of any drier sunnier weather always the further east you are

 

Edited June 3, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

10c upper temperatures edging into the SE so possibly a very warm day in store on Monday. Sunday not looking too bad either with high pressure keeping things more settled the further east you go. Lets see what happens from here.

 

[Milhouse]

A bit of a battleground between low pressure to the west and high pressure trying to hold on to the east. What results is a typical NW/SE split and remaining warm. sometimes very warm where high pressure gains a foothold.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

The ecm is suggesting plume after plume from Friday To Tuesday next week.    

[shaky]

Brilliant ecm this evening!!also plume is still on for the weekend!!

[knocker]

The ECM 500mb anomaly for next week has two intense areas of warm air, one centred between Greenland and Canada and the other Scandinavia. A cold flow covers the Atlantic into the UK. The GFS is not dissimilar without so much emphasis on the westerly pattern.  This gives rise to somewhat fluid surface synoptics with what I suspect may well be a transient ridge from the Azores high just too the west of the UK by the end of the run, Makes a  change from seeing a low stuck there. Temps quite variable but on average a little above normal.

Edited June 3, 2014 by knocker

[MR EXTREMES]

The ECM 500mb anomaly for next week has two intense areas of warm air, one centred between Greenland and Canada and the other Scandinavia. A cold flow covers the Atlantic into the UK. The GFS is not dissimilar without so much emphasis on the westerly pattern.  This gives rise to somewhat fluid surface synoptics with what I suspect may well be a transient ridge from the Azores high just too the west of the UK by the end of the run, Makes a  change from seeing a low stuck there. Temps quite variable but on average a little above normal.

Two posts in a row that contradict each other,the ecm looking good for pulses of heat!

[gottolovethisweather]

The ecm is suggesting plume after plume from Friday To Tuesday next week.    

 

Ties in with the thoughts of the Beeb then. It seems not so laughable to me, quite possibly they are seriously onto something there with regards to a plume after a plume event with always the warmest air effecting the far East and Southeast.  I do hope its not a total rainfest, a few sunny days and a Thundery breakdown would suit my particular situation.

Edited June 3, 2014 by gottolovethisweather