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Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.


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Yes agreed the ECM ops although vacillating during next week does show a semblance of order at the end  You can see the daily change of temps easily and the geographical spread. The anomaly is just suggesting, once again of course, that the warm to the NE/E might gain a stronger foothold. Not holding my breath.

 

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noaa cpc with low upstream confidence PJ although given that we have a retrogressive pattern at play, it may not be as important as usual.  that lw ridge trough ridge pattern looking quite firm  - interesting and currently the favoured week 2 pattern is a mean southerly with the west plagued by some frontal incursions and the east, away from any north sea coastal drich, looking warm to hot.

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Well it seems as though on the CPC 6-10 day forecast and 8-14 day forecast tonight on 500 Mb that the trough has moved even more westwards. Very interesting set up and we'll just have to wait and see if that trend continues. I think there's a good sporting chance of it.

Agree ive been looking at these every day and the last couple seem to be going in a good direction BUT like John H always says this must maintain and all three be similar(ish)?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

 

also looking at the ensembles they look nice if your after something summery and also these

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

are none too shabby....not completely dry but if it gotta rain id prefer it warm!

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The GFS anomaly is still a tad more bullish with the anomaly than the ECM next week regarding the Scandinavian high and weakening the Atlantic trough. But hey we're slowly getting there.

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Edited by knocker
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GEFS slightly less convincing for longer-term settled weather tonight:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

Lots of High Pressure options but lots of variation too.

ECM mean also starts scaling down the build-up of heights by T240.

I'm putting this down in part to a stronger cut-off in the low this weekend, meaning the upper trough takes longer to clear away and heights from the south build in with less intensity.

What this means - opportunities for heat next week still exist, very much so - but we'll have to wait much longer to find out how/where/to what extent any heights will eventually build, and the prospect of an quick breakdown later in the period (e.g. later next week) is a bigger possibility tonight.

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It looks like most of this warmer weather, if it comes, will be held mostly to the E, with western areas seeing more of a wetter outlook. Past Saturday solutions start to become varied, with ECM and GFS pulling a plume up from the continent. This could bring warm, or even, hot conditions (outside of the climatological mean). Confidence is reasonably high, with MOGREPS on board too. However, depending on what happens on the continent, and what any engagement with this plume might result it, is still uncertain. Whether or not the vortex off the SW of the UK into the weekend retrogresses will have something to say about what happens past Sunday..though currently all models look to be holding it to the west bringing a S'ly flow into Britain and further potential plumes.T+240 signal and beyond still has a very weak anticyclonic bias, so any fine and dry conditions are likely not to be prolonged, with a westerly flow favoured.

Edited by Mark Canning
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Guess what?plume has shifted further west on the 18z gfs! !no surprise there really considering the trend is to shift things further and further west!!

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Good pub run so far. Tightened up that trough a little bit, means a nice westward shift in the plume.

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Steering winds more southerly now, better chance of imported storms.

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+16C 850s into the South East. Mid-possibly high twenties in the sunnier spots in the south east.

Surface and mid level cape is through the roof over Northern France and central/southern England

 

The rest of the run is pretty mundane, NW/SE split with heights close to the south. The GFS still keen on flattening the block to the east somewhat. Probably to progressive and the ECM/ECM ens are probably closer but that could all change tomorrow.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Ohhhh boy....18z could break a few hearts tonight. Offers a different perspective at days 9/10 than the 12z did (and the few runs before that). Though it's not a disaster of a run by any stretch

 

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GFS still a settled outlier at day 8 compared to the Euro and GEM but much closer than the 12z.

 

Also delays the front on Saturday until late for eastern areas, pretty much stalled overnight into Sunday so a potential deluge.

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Morning all, A quick look at the weekend from GFS.

 

The upper anomaly is dominated by deep low west of the UK with a tentacle from the Scandinavian high stretching into Europe.

 

The surface analysis Friday though Sunday.

 

Friday 12z has a low 984mb 400 miles WSW of southern Ireland with associated front curving around western Ireland. The UK in a light SE wind with rain just touching Cornwall.

 

Saturday the low has edged closer and the front is about east central over the UK with rain in the eastern half with little or no wind.

 

Sunday the low slowly filling but becoming a more complex system with a section NW of Scotland with the remains of the trough bringing wet weather to N. Scotland  and northern and western Ireland. A small high pressure cell is centred over Belgium bringing an area SE of a line Cornwall to Yorkshire under it’s influence. Mainly dry with little convective activity except showers in the north west.

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Hmm this mornings runs so far might make people start to doubt things beyond this weekend. I think giving it a few more runs might be needed here as the GFS seems to be a little lost and trying to find the right pattern going forward.

The one big difference is the development of a second wave of warm air forecast for next Monday, this wasn't shown at all on the previous runs, suggesting that trough is going to hang around to the west of us for a bit longer than the GFS previously showed.

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Two thundery events in the space of 3 days? Not too bad but needs watching for the usual corrections east/west.

 

Beyond that, well it's upstream developments again here. The GFS and GEM both eventually push the Atlantic low north east and bring in a more mobile westerly pattern with average temperatures. The key trigger to reversing this was show on last nights ECM. If the upstream low manages to phase with the low near the UK, that low should barrel back further into the Atlantic allowing heights to build again near the UK and into Europe. If in the GFS case the upstream low gets cut off then we simply can't get this to occur. Though again the American models looks rather progressive with their solution. 

 

All eyes on the ECM to see whether it can show some consistency.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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I mentioned yesterday how a last minute rise in heights around Iceland could scupper chances of a pattern change ... well the GFS 00Z is strengthening these heights at T96 - as a result the trough doesn't lift out and the chances of really decent weather next week hang in the balance. UKMO looks a bit better though, I think the trough will lift after T144. Quite good (warm, some sun) in the SE this weekend though.

edit - sorry strike that, UKMO is pretty much the same of GFS at T144

Edited by rjbw
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Well a chart like that doesn't bring any confidence going forward

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2 cut off Atlantic lows. The models are notoriously terrible at resolving these. 

Another plume for the east

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Interestingly the ECM shows that the 10C isotherm never leaves the south east. So East Anglia and some southern counties could do rather well out of this. But again confidence looks very low.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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It's looking like the plume model'd over the past few days will only be glancing the far S/E of the UK around the 9th before retreating East as the Atlantic pushes through once again by the 11th/12th, Bringing more unsettled wet weather from the West, We may see a N/S split with more settled weather in the far South.

 

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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It's looking like the plume model'd over the past few days will only be glancing the far S/E of the UK around the 9th before retreating East as the Atlantic pushes through once again by the 11th/12th, Bringing more unsettled wet weather from the West, We may see a N/S split with more settled weather in the far South.

 

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I would be worried about the high beginning to build across Greenland pushing weather systems further south across the Atlantic towards the UK

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I would be worried about the high beginning to build across Greenland pushing weather systems further south across the Atlantic towards the UK

 

Yes Cheeky..  We "may see" a N/S Split, As you say if Hight's build enough over Greenland this will aid to push the lows further South in time.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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The ECM ops anomaly situation for next week has the strong heights south of Greenland stretching to the warm air east of the UK which plunges down to central Europe. This leaves the large cold pool still in the western Atlantic. This cooler air continues to influence the UK in a somewhat complex fashion with the very warm air in Europe briefly edging a tad closer but eventually moving further south leaving the UK with average temps.

 

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In my eyes the plume that is forecast for Friday/saturday is showing the plume to last longer than initially shown which is brilliant!!also out of nowhere pressure is shown to build across england on monday which was not shown on the models yesterday!!so all in all things have improved somewhat regarding the plume in my opinion!!forget what happens after that cos just 24 hours ago the plume was meant to be a 24 hour things and might not have even reached us but things have changed rapidly overnight!!

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beyond Sunday and it is very unclear what may happen looking at the anomaly charts, EC-GFS this morning have changed from 24 hours ago, almost swopped places with their charts and now GFS looks more like the NOAA 6-10. I will wait until all 3 show very similar ideas for at least a couple of runs before backing any version.

Not really looked at what may happen prior to that with talk of plumes or not.

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ECM and GFS ens means at T240

 

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Not terrible charts for the south, but thanks to small changes in the T96-T144 timeframe as discussed this morning by myself and Captain Shortwave, the chances of High Pressure building right across the country have diminished, and if this change is consolidated, we will probably continue to meander between troughs moving in from the west and occasional cells of HP coming up from the south.

All in all, those in the SE can expect a lot of warm and fairly sunny weather from Friday onwards, with occasional thunderstorms and the odd weak front moving across. More towards the NW, it is a really mixed bag with only the odd really good day.

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