Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[Man With Beard]

Lots of charts starting to look like this in the D7-D10 region:

A very encouraging shape for summer, considering there were (still are?) fears of a trough setting up residence over the UK. This shape puts everything on a SW-NE tilt and allows High Pressure from the south/south-west to build across us more freely in the days after. 

 

I like to look for trigger situations (i.e. earlier events affecting later ones) - I think one important key in the T96-T144 is for heights to remain less strong to the north of the Atlantic low - this allows the upstream flow to reorganise the pattern from NW-SE to SW-NE by T192-T216 - but heights to the north could cut off the low, keeping it in limbo next to the UK with a far slower exit, meaning we miss the opportunity of the pattern change. Fortunately, I find height builds directly to the north are often slightly overexaggerated at around T120, so history might be in our favour. 

 

This particular GFS run gets close to the "cut-off" at T96:

 

but it doesn't get established enough and by T120 the cut off has failed (this Saturday's plume slides further east incidentally):

 

Moving onto the T192 chart and beyond - the result is a week of mainly dry and fine weather (low 20s the very least to be expected), and heights are building once again by T384:

- ok, one may say this is miles into FI, but if the flow realigns SW/NE then troughs are naturally going to be pushed further north until a new disturbance penetrates the pattern - what I'm saying is that, if you can get to the T192 chart, then the T384 scenario whilst of course not a given, is not an unlikely one either - there is so much more room for error when there is a big High Pressure build.

Edited June 2, 2014 by rjbw

[summer blizzard]

Interesting sets of outputs. At day 8 both the Euro and GEM have a plume just to the east of the UK..

 

 

GFS probably an outlier being much more settled.

[IDO]

Again this morning's ECM op throwing up a warm solution compared to the mean on D7 & D8; 3-4c above the mean:

 

 

GFS ops have been downgrading the temp for the UK over the last few runs with respect to the upcoming plume, and the ECM remains slower in following that trend. The mean is more in line with the GFS 2m temps (though for different reasons):

 

ECM op at D8:  Mean:

 

This morning's 06z inevitably pushes the plume further east for Sunday:

 

0z at 2pm Sunday:   06z:  06z mean: 

 

Although we now look like missing out on the hot weather, the weekend should therefore be drier, after a warm front moves north Friday, briefly  accompanied by >10c uppers (for circa 24 hours); as we remain in a milder more stable upper flow, so therefore warmer surface conditions:

 

 

Week 2 we see the transition period as the Azores High gets displaced by the Atlantic trough and this is currently highly fluid and potentially messy and changes per suite on the hi-res runs; though the outcome of the meridional flow remains consistent.

 

Into FI: Slight changes in the 06z trough, in that it pushes further west, so by T300: 

 

More favorable for a MLB for the UK region. We will have to see if this trends.

Edited June 2, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[knocker]

Still not that much agreement between the GFS and ECK anomaly for next week.

Edited June 2, 2014 by knocker

[SMU]

Guys please read the detail on my posts

35c moving north in the plume - ie spain etc, 32c maybe approaching the coast of north france - hence the words ' to the SE of the UK'

The warmth gathering momentum today, as ever though those in the SE seem to be in the safety zone, people further north & west hoping for a nudge further that way!

S

[phil nw.]

Fair doo's Steve-plenty of heat for the end of the week over the near continent being modeled on the 06Z GFS that's for sure.

 

 

Looks like a glancing blow for the se quadrant of England at the moment but certainly time for a little nudge west to see some of that getting into more of the UK.

Could get interesting as the cooler Atlantic air pushes against the warm bulge late Fri/Sat.-storm risk spreading across from France.

[knocker]

Guys please read the detail on my posts35c moving north in the plume - ie spain etc, 32c maybe approaching the coast of north france - hence the words ' to the SE of the UK'The warmth gathering momentum today, as ever though those in the SE seem to be in the safety zone, people further north & west hoping for a nudge further that way!S

 

Steve I'm not doubting what you are saying and I think the first two charts highlight it perfectly. Correct me if I'm wrong. After that the advection from the SW takes over and the very warm air retreats.

Edited June 2, 2014 by knocker

[Dancerwithwings]

UKMO is showing Weds looking increasingly wet for most of the UK

 

 

Blimey.... Thursday night up north looks

 

[Summer Sun]

Warm air still on track to arrive for Friday rain will be moving eastwards during the day of which some could be heavy and thundery

 

 

By Saturday temperatures continue to rise could be a rather humid day with more thundery rain likely

 

UKMO also shows the warm air moving into the south on Friday

 

Edited June 2, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS promotes a fine, pleasantly warm few days with its 12z update

 

 

The situation doesn't look as sturdy as the 6z did however, so don't be surprised to see a more unsettled FI

 

Into FI the HP pulls back just to our west which introduces a fresher N'ly flow...Would feel very pleasant in the sun with high teens, perhaps low twenties temps and little humidity. Some cloud/light rain in places however

 

Edited June 2, 2014 by CreweCold

[Daniel*]

Spanish Plume of dense warm air,

will surge up from Continent as it stands the intense heat is covering the mainland.

However the SE/EA - those futher east will do well. I reckon there will be dramatic contrasts of W to E...

29.8C going for St James's Park during the hot spell. I think the models are underplaying the tempertures.

Edited June 2, 2014 by Daniel*

[Captain Shortwave]

Apart from last nights ECM there has been little talk of hot weather really (warm or very warm being the main thinking). So modelsGFS - looks really progressive with realigning the jet and pretty much kills the plume for us, warm beyond Thursday but unspectacular.UKMO better alignment and keeps the very warm air until Sunday morning. Looks good into next week.GEM looks best for the weekend. Unfortunately it decides blasting away a heat block is a perfectly acceptable solution.

Edited June 2, 2014 by Captain shortwave
pruning reference to removed post

[mushymanrob]

compare the EC-GFS output this morning with the 6-10 NOAA I posted last evening (No 75) to see the problem.

No continuity or agreement with the 3 charts. If that is the case at 500mb then rest assured that the probability of getting the surface chart correct is more than usually fraught with difficulty.

EC is closer to the NOAA 6-10 than GFS is but NOAA does not show the fairly marked western trough/cut off that EC this morning and yesterday has. Of the 3 then I suspect that NOAA and EC are nearer the mark than GFS is in the 6-10 day range at 500mb so the surface output from EC may well be nearer the mark than the GFS output.

Too many differences to have any real belief in 10 days from now at the moment.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Having written all that the 00z synoptic outputs this morning from GFS and EC are not that different!

 

far be it for me to question you on this john, but are not the anomaly charts not too far off from agreement? and the ops are all suggesting some kind of warming up and 'summery' weather with high pressure not too far away. the detail might vary, but its still looking very promising for some decent early summer weather. ok not a heatwave (outside a possible couple of days here and there) but overall its a pretty promising outlook from friday onwards. (albeit not totally dry.)

[summer blizzard]

12z GEM and GFS once again at odds and it looks like to me like once again it comes down to heights over the Arctic. GFS has relatively low pressure while GEM relatively high.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

12z GEM and GFS once again at odds and it looks like to me like once again it comes down to heights over the Arctic. GFS has relatively low pressure while GEM relatively high.

 

 

Well even GFS wasn't as clean cut as the 6z run. I suspect ECM will shed a bit more light on the situation.

 

GEFS are bullish over settled weather into day 10/11 as it stands....though we've been here with the GEFS many, many times before!

 

Edited June 2, 2014 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well Crewe I hope the GEFS are onto something then. By the way Gavin p issued out his June forecast on video, using the Bejing Climate Center and CFS v2 modelling. He is going for a warm and wet June.

 

Yes, I've seen the GEFS flip so many times before from an apparent 'all in' state to something resembling the complete opposite....sometimes it's the proceeding suite too! ECM will certainly be interesting.

[Summer Sun]

ECM continues to bring in some warm air later this week with it arriving in the south on Friday

 

 

By Saturday the warmth extends across the UK

 

 

By Sunday it remains warm in the east though temperatures would be down slightly compared to Saturday

 

 

Could be some thundery rain at times later this week given the warmth that will be building assuming this does come off of course

Edited June 2, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Cheshire Freeze]

No real conclusion at 168 hrs. We're stuck in no-mans land TBH. Very warm/hot over the continent.

 

Edited June 2, 2014 by CreweCold

[Captain Shortwave]

No real conclusion at 168 hrs. We're stuck in no-mans land TBH. Very warm/hot over the continent.

 

Low near UK moving north, upstream low phasing with that low and digging south, Azores high will come into play here. And is exactly what the ECM shows. Looks nice, even if it takes a couple of bites.

 

Outlooks looks warm if not very warm at times with the potential for thundery activity moving in from the Continent. As expected the UK never really gets the full on heat but the mid-twenties looks possible which is decent enough.

 

Oh and a nice shift west from the ECM for Saturday compared to yesterdays 12z.

Edited June 2, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Steady rise from the Azores high from t192 onwards as the low starts to move north

 

[summer blizzard]

ECWMF does build pressure eventually but takes a while about it.

 

At day 8 it's closer to the GEM.

 

[SMU]

ECM is decent again today- with the weekend looking like temps could top out around 27 c in the SE, lower to the W & N.

 

After that- flirtations with the atlantic, but at 240 shows the heat building further from spain, with a more pronounced push North towards the UK.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014060212/ECM1-240.GIF?02-0

 

It looks very good for Central Europe at the moment, with the UK flirting with the heat - however charts like the ECM 240- supported by the GEM need monitoring over the next few days as they signal more substantial heat into Western Europe- & the days after that would certainly be aiming the darts at the 30c mark!

 

S

Edited June 2, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Cheshire Freeze]

Low near UK moving north, upstream low phasing with that low and digging south, Azores high will come into play here. And is exactly what the ECM shows. Looks nice, even if it takes a couple of bites.

 

Outlooks looks warm if not very warm at times with the potential for thundery activity moving in from the Continent. As expected the UK never really gets the full on heat but the mid-twenties looks possible which is decent enough.

 

The 240hrs chart would lead to some hot weather days 11&12- as Steve says above.

Edited June 2, 2014 by CreweCold

[A.J]

A couple of posts pruned I'm afraid....one liners & two word replies to said 'one liner' do not constitute Model 'Discussion'

 

 

for the two posters who've had posts pruned, look at the above highlighted and underlined word to gain posting enlightenment!

[ANYWEATHER]

I think the T+120 is as far as we can go in model output forecasts, and even these differ between ecm and gfs! The plume for the end of the week is an absolute stonker to forecast, and its impossible at this stage, even with all the computing power we have on planet Earth to say what is going to happen. I expect weather warnings to appear at the end of the week, very near to the forecasting wire. There is potential for some Disruptive weather if all the ingredients come togeather,......