Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[knocker]

Speaking in very general terms with a quick glance through the looking glass at the end of next week. The upper anomalies are all tending towards cyclonic unsettled conditions for the UK. The not unfamiliar picture of the Bermuda-Azores high pushing up mid Atlantic with the jet running around to the north.

Edited June 25, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

UKMO showing a slow rise in pressure from the west next week once the low clears away east

 

 

ECM also shows a ridge of high pressure building but a fairly deep low pressure is shown to arrive towards the end of its run bringing cooler and wetter conditions for a time though I suspect it will be over cooking this once the ensemble is out within the next 20 mins

 

[Summer Sun]

No surprise to see the ECM Op is over cooking the low at day 9 & 10

 

Op

 

 

ensemble

 

[knocker]

The ECM ens anomaly differs from the ops in that it makes far less of the mid Atlantic ridge so prominent in the ops. Not unexpected of course.

Edited June 25, 2014 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

Euro, GEM and GFS all in agreement today. After the low clears of Scandinavia at day 5 or so, pressure will attempt to build before the UK gets steamrolled by an area of low pressure.

 

[knocker]

Saturday midday.

Edited June 25, 2014 by knocker

[Yarmy]

Saturday midday.

 

On that surface chart, STNRY=Stationary?, OSIPT=?, NEW=?

 

I like that they tell you the forecaster's name.

[Nouska]

On that surface chart, STNRY=Stationary?, OSIPT=?, NEW=?

 

I like that they tell you the forecaster's name.

 

Hi, think it is actually DSIPT = dissipating.

[Summer Sun]

Steady rise in pressure again next week once the low moves away

 

[Summer Sun]

t144 to t192 on ECM shows pressure rising

 

 

t216 shows low pressure bringing in north westerly winds though its not as deep as the 00z update

 

[Milhouse]

ECM turns things settled and fairly warm for a while next week but keeping low pressure on a northerly track is proving difficult while we have the Arctic high in place. The last 2 frames see it rapidly turn more unsettled from the NW.

[Captain Shortwave]

Quite good agreement on the first half of next week being pretty decent as a ridge of high pressure drifts across the UK, temperatures probably starting a little below par, but rising midweek towards the mid-twenties in the south. Beyond that, again the GEM and ECM want to develop the classic UK/Scandi trough whilst the GFS goes for something warmer. Again the usual mistrusts and biases apply here.

[ANYWEATHER]

Some very cool 850mb charts for this time of year over the uk in the next few days will make for some really cool daytime tempertures in any. cloud and rain,compared to recently. Copious amounts of rain for some especially southern Britain in the days ahead,' then looks as though pressure "attemps" to rise early next week'but with an increasingly strong jet stream steam rolling in from the north Atlantic the high gets flattened and we are in the grips of Atlantic weather..Hello Summer

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Anyweather, And as you say some cool temps expected by the Week-end.

 

Edited June 25, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Milhouse]

The one consolation is that the ECM only turns unsettled in the last 2 frames so time for things to alter between now and then.

[Gael_Force]

Looking like the main player of our weather for 8-14 days is a scandanavian trough according to the CPC NOAA site, thus agreeing with ECM:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Obviously there will be other scenarios like the MJO and what phase 1 does for us in July, really we need cloud 10 or snowking to help us what MJO phase 1 in July does.

 

I'm not either of your required helpers but here's what phase one looks like for July. The link is here.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

Whether the phase of MJO has any bearing on the weeks ahead is IMO moot while there is such disagreement between

the main model suite.

 

[phil nw.]

Late Thursday onwards sees the change as the shallow low approaching from the Atlantic moves into England and Wales.

Friday looks the wettest day south of the border as the cooler air from further north meets the surface warmth in the south.A band of rain with some possible thunderstorms across the centre showing up currently on the GFS extra charts.

Meanwhile further north, Scotland and N.Ireland look likely to remain largely dry and cool but with some sunshine over the next few days.

 

Friday afternoon

 

 

The change with cooler air and indeed lower temperatures looks like going into the start of next week before the low moves away and pressure starts to build again.Temperatures should recover then as the cool northerly gradually dies away.

No real promise from the models of a return to a settled spell this evening.It looks like a period of westerly type weather will establish next week with transient ridging from the Azores high before the next Atlantic system moves in.

 

[knocker]

 

Whether the phase of MJO has any bearing on the weeks ahead is IMO moot while there is such disagreement between

the main model suite.

 

 

 

I would agree with that plus the time of year when MJO related impacts are the greatest in the northern hemisphere is during the months from November through March. For lesser mortals such as myself keeping track of the models is taxing enough without speculation into the MJO and other teleconnections I'm afraid. Apart from anything else it's difficult to pin down what effect, if any, they have on tropospheric circulation in the northern Atlantic in summer.

Edited June 25, 2014 by knocker

[phil nw.]

Looking like the main player of our weather for 8-14 days is a scandanavian trough according to the CPC NOAA site, thus agreeing with ECM:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.phpObviously there will be other scenarios like the MJO and what phase 1 does for us in July, really we need cloud 10 or snowking to help us what MJO phase 1 in July does.

The MJO can be a guide when in an active phase and forecasted to be in the same area of the Tropics by all the agencies.

It does seem to be more prominent in Winter but for many weeks now the signals from this have been weak and mixed so on it's own little guidance can be taken from the phase diagrams at the moment pji.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[knocker]

No real promise from the models of a return to a settled spell this evening.It looks like a period of westerly type weather will establish next week with transient ridging from the Azores high before the next Atlantic system moves in.

 

Yes the ECM ens goes along with this with HP sticking much to mid Atlantic.

Edited June 25, 2014 by knocker

[draztik]

Looking like the main player of our weather for 8-14 days is a scandanavian trough according to the CPC NOAA site, thus agreeing with ECM:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Obviously there will be other scenarios like the MJO and what phase 1 does for us in July, really we need cloud 10 or snowking to help us what MJO phase 1 in July does.

The updated ecm ens continue to run with this

Days 10-15 height anom.

[Man With Beard]

The updated ecm ens continue to run with this

Days 10-15 height anom.

The Scandi trough keeps appearing this summer, but its forecasted impact on us has tended to lessen towards T0 - will this be the case again?

[summer blizzard]

Euro and Gem look very similar to this morning.

Gfs generates the troughing but stalls.

The inter run consistency would normally suggest the Euro but since mid May we've had a persistent trough south west and high north east which is not dissimilar to the GFS.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning continues with the unsettled/cool theme through-out the run. With Lows swinging in off the Atlantic bringing showers or longer spells of rain, And at times producing a N/N/E flow.

 

Edited June 26, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the models are still bringing in low pressure later next week though via a completely different route now. Wanting to build heights to the north/north east before pulling it towards Greenland and trapping low pressure near the UK.

Interestingly the ECM goes against the GFS/GEM and UKMO and builds heights right over the UK

 

The ECM does bring low pressure in, but it's more of a north/south split with the south  remaining rather warm throughout as pressure remains high over Spain and France.

Edited June 26, 2014 by Captain shortwave