Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[knocker]

Looking at the ECM ens for the weekend I think I'll still contact Mystic Meg.

 

 

Edited June 23, 2014 by knocker

[IDO]

Friday night (GFS 06z) for Glastonbury: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=2&ech=108

 

All sorts of levels of precipitation thrown in there. But at this early stage rain looks very likely. In fact there are rain spikes on Friday, Saturday and Sunday:

 

 

Having looked at the ECM Ensembles for D5, there are major differences  in how the pressure over the UK sits. I now see why the Countryfile Week Ahead Forecast was hinting at low confidence for the end of the week. The ECM mean for Friday-Sunday:

 

 

That LP system looks a pain. ECM Rain: Friday Sat: 

 

Further out: The 06z op not unlike GEM this morning with an Atlantic ridge building next week from after D6 to after D10 stalling the LP system to our NW:

 

...and it stays to the north through the run: 

 

Although HP to the west some relatively cool uppers with a  cool wind direction: 

 

 

Another possible outcome; expect more to come in upcoming runs.

 

 

 

[Yarmy]

Very large differences in the modelling of the low pressure over Baffin Island between the GFS 12z and 06z already:

 

06z

 

12z

 

 

Difficult to trust anything beyond that.

[Milhouse]

High pressure nudging in from the west early next week settling things down

 

[ANYWEATHER]

High pressure nudging in from the west early next week settling things down

 

Yes, but the ecm says no to this, with completely different synoptics at that far out time range.......

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the afternoon suite decided that even Friday is still up for grabs. GFS is ok but the south east could see quite a bit of rainfall as the low stalls over the low countries. UKMO stalls the low in the north sea so will effect more of the UK.

GEM is absolute garbage.

[Milhouse]

The GFS 12z up to 240 hours is looking to me as a low confidence chart with pressure never too high or too low so an even probability of it being unsettled or settled:http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0

 

Plenty of options on the table looking at the different 6z GEFS ensemble members from 240h onwards. Some go for a prolonged settled spell beginning early next week, but too early to tell.

[Milhouse]

Well the afternoon suite decided that even Friday is still up for grabs. GFS is ok but the south east could see quite a bit of rainfall as the low stalls over the low countries. UKMO stalls the low in the north sea so will effect more of the UK.

GEM is absolute garbage.

 

I have seen a fair few situations over the years where the models are innitially slow to move low pressure off away eastwards. Then closer to T+0 it gets shunted away a lot quicker. Only time will tell this time.

[knocker]

High pressure nudging in from the west early next week settling things down

 

 

One could argue that a transient ridge is hardly settling things down. 48 hours later.

[Milhouse]

One could argue that a transient ridge is hardly settling things down. 48 hours later.

 

Thats where the GFS had rolled out to when i posted said chart. The ENS mean supports a temporary ridge before the Atlantic fires up but that is a long way out.

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM day 5

 

has the low a lot further south west than the UKMO or GFS

 

Still impossible to call at this point.

[phil nw.]

Mid-Summer is often a tricky period to read the models with a flabby 500hPa wave pattern.

The main features for us are the semi-permanent Azores high and the remains of the Polar vortex which at this time of year sends isolated upper cold pools towards mid-latitudes and this seems to be one of those years.    

 

the current GFS NH chart shows this pattern

 

Looking at prospects for us for the next few days it looks like pressure will fall away as a shallow low approaches from the south west

 

bringing an increasingly showery period particularly for England and Wales.

 

Not sure things will remain unsettled for too long though with signs from the  3 op runs that the Azores high will ridge towards us again after the passage of that low as we go into next week.

 

not a bad Summer pattern at all when compared with some of the washout setups we have had in recent years.

 

[Milhouse]

Now if the ECM was to go beyond t+240 we would sure see some hot conditions pushing up from the south with low pressure becoming slow moving in the Atlantic. But its in FI. A ridge of high pressure next week is shown by all the big 3 models. But how long it lasts is still far from certain.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

The ecm has led the way recently in its outputs ,and all models now agree with a breakdown in the fine weather. But the ecms ops,  output is still shaky . look at the difference from its 00z /12z output today.. to July 1st    

Edited June 23, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Interesting ECM output, very interesting.

Im sorry, but youve just got to love the FI bias. As soon as it starts, it pushes the Atlantic straight in. Its been doing this for weeks now, and there hasn't even been a sniff of it returning at all. Not to mention it doing it every single run last year too from start to finish during the heatwave in July. I'm sorry it sounds like I'm slating it, I'm not, I just think it is quite pointless having one run with one synoptic, and then next run, it shows the complete opposite! 

 

Anyway, Interesting model watching coming up for July I feel. Real static conditions at the moment with no real high or low pressure set up! 

[NeilN]

Please ECM for next week come off!!! I can see a July 2012 repeat.

[damianslaw]

Mmm the word 'slack' outlook probably best sums up what the models are offering today, with no major force apparently able to take hold - a stalemate of sorts between high pressure to the NE and lower heights over the atlantic - quite a messy set up and prone to sudden developments.. reliable timeframe is very short at present - Friday tops.

 

Interesting to note how we are seeing stubborn heights to our NE, they don't want to disappear.

 

The models do all show some sort of trough action anchoring itself to our SW by the end of the week, bringing a potentially wet spell for the south in particular whilst the north languishes under cool dry conditions. Its quite a different set up to what we have been used too over recent summers, its been a long time since we have seen cool dry conditions in summer prevail with a cold surface high dominating things.. but that is what mid week at least looks like delivering with maxima struggling to hit high teens in the north.

 

Good to see a bit of variety. We could however, be staring at an atlantic barrel train in a few days.. its a fine line set up.

Edited June 23, 2014 by damianslaw

[Summer Sun]

Worth keeping an eye on Friday could be some persistent rain in the south not good for Glastonbury starting and of course Wimbledon is now underway

 

[knocker]

End of the month with the ECM ens

Edited June 23, 2014 by knocker

[draztik]

If the ecm ensembles are to be believed, we will see a big contrast into early July when compared to this time last year.

 

days 10-15 height anom. ecm ens*mean & control.

[summer blizzard]

Order of the day seems to be more slack weather albeit a lean towards low over higher pressure. GEM is the most aggressive at day 8.

 

[knocker]

The anomalies for the beginning of July. Regarding the GFS this translated surface wise to basically to HP over Greenland with the Bermuda-Azores high where it's been for a while with the Atlantic tending to dominate with the position of the jet supporting this scenario. And yes I know pure speculation but I'm sure others will be covering Glastonbury in detail. Mind Saturday looks pretty foul.

Edited June 24, 2014 by knocker

[IDO]

Nothing good from the models this morning. It appears the ridge from next week modelled recently is now looking over done. Thats no surprise as ECM and GFS bias fo higher pressure in the NH remains relatively high:

 

ECM D10 verification is rarely so low: 

 

Though no surprise for most of us.

 

The London Ensembles for rain sum it up:

 

 Pressure: 

 

From late Thursday the mean pressure stays below 1015 till the end of FI. 

 

GEM remains the most pessimistic with a series of LP systems over the UK from D3-D10 ending:

 

It does appear the low heading our way at the end of the week stalls close to the UK, even UKMO now going this way:

 

T96:   T144: 

 

ECM also D4:   D5:

 

 D6:   D7: 

 

Navgem at T180: 

 

On the GFS op the LP hangs on till T264: 

 

The control till T192:  the mean closer to the op: 

 

GFS rainfall totals fluctuate daily but the trend is upwards. Next 8 days total show 150% monthly amounts for Ireland in just over a week:

 

 

No shock this turn of events as the LR models have been pushing for a while a wet start to July as lower pressure gains ground and the GEFS have been leaning this way for 10 odd days, though timing issues have delayed its arrival. 

 

Beijing first 10 days July anomaly:  Second 10 days: 

 

The models are now in broad agreement for a wet cool 5-7 days starting late Thursday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Man With Beard]

A change this morning, with agreement from the main models - at T96, the Atlantic low combines with a Scandi low over the UK, creating a new low that gets stuck over England for several days. That roof is going to come in handy at Wimbledon.

[SteveB]

It now looks like it will becoming more unsettled from Friday onwards, with temps dropping off over the weekend but recovering slightly next week.

 

The unsettled weather at least seems to be in the way of showers, so hopefully there will be some brighter spells in-between.