Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

[summer blizzard]

Out to day 8 and all three operations back a cold push for the time of year. Into FI and both the GFS and Euro only get worse.

 

[Man With Beard]

Out to day 8 and all three operations back a cold push for the time of year. Into FI and both the GFS and Euro only get worse.

 

It has certainly trended in the last 24 hours towards weaker heights and more activity from the north. I'd say we've still a long way to go before confidence builds in this solution though - as with the latest GFS op run, the latest Scandi trough may well do what all the others have done, and miss us well to the north, with just a passing influence.

With the general flow still coming from the north, heatwave definitely off the cards for now, though.

[Polar Maritime]

I have had to delete a few off-topic posts.

Can we keep to Model Discussion only in here.

Thanks

Edited June 16, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

Further to my earlier post GFS/Glastonbury a good example of not taking too much notice one or two runs after a glance at the 12z.

 

That is keeping a ridge over the UK Thursday/Friday/Saturday although the latter is a bit complex and quite wet. It's scaled down the movement of the Greenland low and has the front lying SW/NE NW of Scotland by Saturday with an area of rain in Biscay from the low pressure in France.

 

The Atlantic looks so unsettled next week I suspect it may be a few days before a sustainable scenario can be pinned down.

Edited June 16, 2014 by knocker

[johnholmes]

I would favour the NOAA 6-10 day 500mb anomaly chart as to the upper pattern. That shows a ridge affecting the UK but with the 500mb flow from a northerly not southerly point. Largely dry in the 6-10 day period but quite cloudy at times with some light rain as decaying fronts run around the high (upper and surface) somewhere W or NW of the UK. No great rainfall totals though and no record breaking temperatures either

.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

It has been very consistent with this type of chart over the past week so it is not a one off. Gave good guidance for what the weather turned out to be over the weekend as well (the one just gone)

Edited June 16, 2014 by johnholmes

[stodge]

To be honest, the GFS 06Z Operational offers one or two interesting charts:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014061606/gfs-0-192.png?6

 

For all those talking about the fall of heights from the North, it's the South that seems to be where we should be looking as LP sets up off France leaving the south in a (potentially) unsettled and perhaps thundery E'ly flow which might have something for those of a stormy disposition.

 

Into FI and signs of a brief HP incursion toward the end of the month before what looks like an autumnal start to July but that's a long way off.

[Captain Shortwave]

The models are slowly but surely bringing that Mediterranean upper ridge into play. The cool air is struggling to gain a foothold into the UK. The GFS in particular is starting to show a fightback next week with a very warm and slack easterly developing. Again this wouldn't bring dry and sunny whether, but more of a thundery set up with thunderstorms pushing up from France.

Will be interesting to see what how the models chop and change here, any reduction of pressure from the Scandi trough will inevitably mean more forcing from the south. It's a big if though.

Edited June 16, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[shaky]

Is it me or has that northerly for friday and the weekend been pushed further east AGAIN!!looks like we gona be left in a slack flow and a weak area of high pressure and a continuation of the warm and dry weather!!

[stodge]

Indeed, GFS 12Z once again offers the scenario of heights falling from the south rather than the north into next week so could be a thundery spell on offer for the south. The output is more settled and HP dominated than its predecessors but not much in the way of heat and humidity mercifully.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014061612/UW144-21.GIF?16-18

 

UKMO this evening at T+144 and not very clear where this is going. Once again, heights lower to the SW and NE but a ridge clinging by its fingertips to the west.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014061612/gem-0-138.png?12

 

GEM at the same time - more pronounced lowering of heights to the NE than UKMO but otherwise quite similar.

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM is showing a decent weekend for most now

Cloud should be less of an issue given the flow is more west or northwesterly, a big improvement for the East. Some rain trying to get into Scotland.

 

Sunday could turn very warm in the south.

Nice little turn around and hope it continues.

Edited June 16, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[shaky]

Ecm looking very good for the weekend aswell now!!

[stodge]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014061612/ECM1-144.GIF?16-0

 

Not too far removed from UKMO/GFS to be honest - again, the ridge is just hanging on. Plenty of Northern Blocking in the latter stages with LP to the south and perhaps an encroaching Atlantic at the very end,

[ANYWEATHER]

Pointless talking about the weekend , and fine weather,models cant agree on the weekend synoptics right now.............

[A.J]

Ecm looking very good for the weekend aswell now!!

this really doesn't add anything to the discussion. Please refrain from one line posts, and please if possible include charts etc in your posts or the likelyhood is that they will be removed...thanks 

[shaky]

Ecm looking dry and warm for the weekend now with high pressure on top of the uk!!pretty much the same as the gfs and ukmo 12z!!all models have pushed the northerly eastwards!!sorry cant upload pics !

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm looking dry and warm for the weekend now with high pressure on top of the uk!!pretty much the same as the gfs and ukmo 12z!!all models have pushed the northerly eastwards!!sorry cant upload pics !

Please stop misleading folks, the Ecm is far from being settled and fine, for the uk, :and Please show us some charts to back up your statement......

Edited June 16, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[bluearmy]

Ecm 12z op is interesting as it offers a different solution at a timeframe where it should be respected as much as the ens. is it a dodgy run? We'll find out in the morning.

[johnholmes]

re posts 659 and 660 this is UK Met take on it

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

 

see the 6-15 day outlook starting Saturday?

 

maybe you are both right!

But it would be helpful if, when unable to post charts, that some kind of summary of what a model is showing were given. It is possible I would have thought to give a link as I did above?

Edited June 16, 2014 by johnholmes

[summer blizzard]

Both models pretty poor past the weekend. GFS has a very messy pattern and then a very wet day or two before high pressure from day 11. Euro has the northerly and then a somewhat stagnant but more or less classic cool pattern.

 

[knocker]

As discussions without charts appear to be a no no a quick look at the latest ECM weeklies for Friday 27th. if only it verified.

Edited June 17, 2014 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

Please stop misleading folks, the Ecm is far from being settled and fine, for the uk, :and Please show us some charts to back up your statement......

 

think youre being abit harsh...

 

sat

 

sun

 

seems largely settled and fine for most going off the charts shaky referred too.

[Polar Maritime]

GFS this morning is showing some pretty cool air over the North around the 25th from the N/E. With Snow over the Highlands of Scotland..

 

Edited June 17, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

Also regarding posts without charts and no back up statements there have been one two posts recently that have discussed, for example, the NH settling into it's summer state and the 'importance' of the jet stream position. None as far as I'm aware have discussed in any meteorological depth the reasoning behind these statements which means the reader has to take them on speck, so to speak.

 

I believe Lamb went into the former in some detail and the relationship between upper tropospheric wind systems and surface weather and climate is, to say the least, complicated..

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks like the high to the west of the UK will hold throughout the weekend now. Interestingly it looks like the Atlantic jet could start to go through the gears next week which perhaps means the ridge out west could begin to push back towards the UK again during week 2. So possibly any breakdown might be brief and last a very short period of time.

GFS ens

Attempting to bring the ridge back to the UK.

ECM and GEM ops are similar in this evolution but of course details will be pretty unreliable at this point. All in all it's not going to be too bad. It will be just be down to sunshine amounts.

Edited June 17, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

Please can we get back to Model Discussion only, And leave the Moderating to the Moderators. As long as charts are being discussed there is no problem.

 

If you are unable to post charts or a link to them that's no issue, But please state what chart and Model you are revering to in the post.

 

Please continue, Many Thanks.

 

PM.

Edited June 17, 2014 by Polar Maritime